Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[hurricane2025]

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update

[cycloneye]

More reasonable numbers, 14/7/2 but impacts are in GOM and SE Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda. Caribbean is out of activity.



https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update

[Spacecoast]

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurricane-impact-update

"...next year may be a doozy of a season. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year."

So, 2024 = 28/14/4 to 36/18/8??

Seems a little bullish.

[REDHurricane]

More reasonable numbers, 14/7/2 but impacts are in GOM and SE Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda. Caribbean is out of activity.

https://i.imgur.com/6nv7Rsx.png

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update

"So far NHC has classified five storms. The two African waves set off much hype as they were so early on, but they fell apart. Since Cindy, nothing has developed out of Africa. That is how it is normally until August. What is interesting is that the pattern is doing it with record-warm water comparable to the busiest of seasons. This further buttresses my argument about how the distortion of the warming can bring down activity if you boil it down to the old Texas A&M rule: Hurricanes are ways to redistribute heat out of the Tropics. If it's already being done in horizontally and vertically (i.e. warm all over) what's the need for them?

So with 5 storms already classified and 16 ACE points, we are ahead of that. One of the storms, Don, became a hurricane. Because it was around so long, it had 7 of the 16 ACE points. The January system had 1.4 ACE points. Don did not originate in the Tropics (nor did the January system or what became Arlene). Essentially the African wave season has produced only 7 of the 16 points. If we were only at 7, we would be below normal for the date."

Interesting... has there ever been any in-depth analysis done about a possible correlation between hurricane activity and the SST difference between the tropical & subtropical Atlantic? It makes logical sense that some kind of correlation could exist, but I'm curious to see if there's any actual evidence.

[gatorcane]

I'm surprised there's such bullishness with Nino. I've got to see it to believe it...especially after they abysmal seasonal forecasts last year. But even if Nino does squash the Atlantic season, there should be an offsetting active weather prize for the deep south in the form an a Nino enhanced subtropical jet yielding an active winter severe season. One way or another that energy is going to be spent.

Also a bit surprised but since already had 5 named systems, they probably had no choice. We should see some big storms out in the Atlantic given the warmer than normal SSTs in the middle of the Atlantic but still thinking they should stay north and east of the Caribbean and Florida given the building El Niño and weaker than normal Bermuda High. Could see a lot of fish and recurving hurricanes.

[boca]

I'm surprised there's such bullishness with Nino. I've got to see it to believe it...especially after they abysmal seasonal forecasts last year. But even if Nino does squash the Atlantic season, there should be an offsetting active weather prize for the deep south in the form an a Nino enhanced subtropical jet yielding an active winter severe season. One way or another that energy is going to be spent.

Also a bit surprised but since already had 5 named systems, they probably had no choice. We should see some big storms out in the Atlantic given the warmer than normal SSTs in the middle of the Atlantic but still thinking they should stay north and east of the Caribbean and Florida given the building El Niño and weaker than normal Bermuda High. Could see a lot of fish and recurving hurricanes.

I just takes one to get thru the weak Bermuda High this year and no east coast trough but yes the percentage is on the lower side. The way the summer has been here nothing surprises me.

[Teban54]

So with 5 storms already classified and 16 ACE points, we are ahead of that. One of the storms, Don, became a hurricane. Because it was around so long, it had 7 of the 16 ACE points. The January system had 1.4 ACE points. Don did not originate in the Tropics (nor did the January system or what became Arlene). Essentially the African wave season has produced only 7 of the 16 points. If we were only at 7, we would be below normal for the date."

I find that to be nonsense. Why are they comparing 2023's AEW activity to an average season's basin-wide activity?

Most seasons don't even have much action in the MDR at or before this date, with most of their ACE coming from early season Gulf/CAG storms and the subtropics. I think 2023's MDR ACE is still above average.

[wxman57]

More reasonable numbers, 14/7/2 but impacts are in GOM and SE Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda. Caribbean is out of activity.

https://i.imgur.com/6nv7Rsx.png

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update

A season forecast of 14/7/2 would mean just 9/6/2 for the rest of the season. That would be nice, but I'm not so optimistic. We may finish August at 6/1/0, though. Could work out to 9/6/2...

[LarryWx]

More reasonable numbers, 14/7/2 but impacts are in GOM and SE Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda. Caribbean is out of activity.

https://i.imgur.com/6nv7Rsx.png

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update

A season forecast of 14/7/2 would mean just 9/6/2 for the rest of the season. That would be nice, but I'm not so optimistic. We may finish August at 6/1/0, though. Could work out to 9/6/2...

I feel pretty confident that the rest of the season will be no more active than 9/6/2. And that's the case even with my current expectation of 2-3 NS TCG in August.

[chaser1]

Anyone happen to already graph past October activity that occurred during prior moderate to strong (non Modoki) Nino events?

[LarryWx]

Anyone happen to already graph past October activity that occurred during prior moderate to strong (non Modoki) Nino events?

For SON ONI +1.0+, #TCG in October that became NS (on record):

2015: 0
2009: 2
2002: 0
1997: 2
1987: 1
1982: 0
1972: 0
1965: 2
1963: 2
1957: 1
1951: 2
1941: 2
1930: 1
1925: 0
1918: 0
1905: 2
1902: 2
1899: 4
1896: 2
1888: 1
1877: 2

20 of 21 had two or fewer and ~half had 1 or fewer
AVG: 1.33 on record regardless of satellite era or not (actually lower during satellite era, alone)

[chaser1]

That was pretty fast Larry! I suppose those in the "no 2023 Nino impact camp" might lean toward 3-5 NS for Oct & Nov (further weighted by lingering anomalous SST's perhaps)? On the flip side those of us more suspicious of Nino eventually having a significant impact might guess between 0 - 2 named storms for Oct & Nov. based on that data you provided. "If" Nino plays a marginally suppressive role then I think 9/6/2 from today forward (meaning above & beyond prior activity this yr) seems reasonable but I could imagine even less then that. I'll say this much... if the experts are right then my S2K poll guess of 13/4/2 could be off by a country mile

[Teban54]

Question: Why do most people here seem to think that seasonal forecasts will bust too high? This sentiment has been dominating most conversations lately, in the models thread, indicators thread and this one.

El Nino is usually cited as the main reason, with dry air and shear also being talked about a lot. But I have to think that professional forecasters are also aware of these factors if S2K members are. And they could have... You know, not make those forecasts of an active season?

What are the experts seeing that S2K members don't? Or vice versa: what do people here see that are allegedly overlooked by experts?

[Spacecoast]

Question: Why do most people here seem to think that seasonal forecasts will bust too high?

Aside from UA's 25/12/6 forecast, I am perfectly comfortable with experts range of 18/8/3 to 19/9/6, & do not feel the need for additional accuracy in that regard.
I am more interested in the 'where',(and 'when'), than exactly 'how many'.

What are the experts seeing that S2K members don't? Or vice versa: what do people here see that are allegedly overlooked by experts?

There certainly seems to be a lot of uncertainty from the expert(s). Being a non-expert, I share that feeling, and respect their (as well as S2K members) various conclusions/observations.

From CSU 8/3/23 Forecast:
" We stress that there is considerable uncertainty with this season’s outlook given the large spread in model guidance, as well as uncertainty with exactly how El Niño will interact with the extremely warm Atlantic."

"There are no great analogs for the current and projected situation of a moderate to strong El Niño combined with a record warm Atlantic. There is a large spread in Atlantic hurricane activity in the seven analog years that we selected, highlighting the large uncertainty in the potential outcomes for the 2023 season.The big question marks with this season's predictions revolve around the strength of El Niño and how anomalously warm the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is for the peak of the hurricane season."

"We stress again that there is greater-than-normal uncertainty associated with this outlook."

[hurricanetrack]

Cited this thread for today's video discussion. As always, I continue to be impressed at how folks here approach everything - so nice to see!



Link: https://youtu.be/CKACIcC5Wis

[pbacorey]

Okay, I'm going to jump in here, because why not.

There's a lot ongoing environmentally and there's a lot more to come. There's also an abundance of processes of which we know very little, given an unprecedented background state, both in terms of climatology and meteorological evolution. This is largely attributed to the bolstered SST profile, an abnormal ENSO state and transition, amongst other abnormalities in pattern evolution. Could this be driven by AMO, PDO, etc., or perhaps other influences (known or unknown)? It's anybody's speculation, but this would suggest that our knowledgebase pertaining to meteorological and climatological processes isn't as vast or grand as we once believed, for we are now being shown exactly what we don't know instead of receiving verification for the little we actually DO know. In essence, I believe we may be on the cusp of a new set of subject matter with which we must familiarize ourselves and the potential exists for weather forecasting processes to change remarkably resulting from this evolution.

Let's take a look at the anomalies we have experienced, only in the last year or so as a barometer. Tornado events in areas in December, when the 'second peak' was traditionally in October to November. Last year's abnormally-quiet August with a significant activity ramp in September, then this year's abnormal severe weather events, most notably in the high Plains states, that persisted well into July for many when it should normally have retreated with the LLJ gaining latitude into the northern Plains and the Canadian high Plains. Just in the past few days, a higher-amplitude northern tier of states upper low pressure system which would under the previous 'normal', would have been well into central Canada. Everything seems to have been pushed back invof 30-45 days on average. If this isn't a signature of something awry, I'm not quite sure what is.

The problems we face in the near-term are the lack of sufficient analogs for guidance ingest. It will take a period of time for the global member guidance to have enough historical information to foster a more realistic depiction of anticipated meteorological state. Perhaps it's time we look at more of a 'grass roots' methodology with respect to forecasting.

In a nutshell, things are bizarre and our knowledgebase isn't quite as omnipotent as we once believed.

Just my two cents' worth.

[cycloneye]

CSU with 50% of slightly above normal periods between August 17-30.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1692220172457971992

[cycloneye]

CSU 2 Week forecast from August 31 to September 13 is with Above normal activity.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1697258107611857289

[cycloneye]

The next 2 weeks (Oct 12 thru Oct 25) will have above normal activity (55%) with normal at (40%) and less active at (5%).

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1712490556692291894

[cycloneye]

On Tuesday, CSU will release the 2023 verification and it was good.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1729200220733596152