Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#101 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 25, 2023 11:08 am

I think the main takeaway is that while it's a universally established law that El Ninos aren't favorable for Atlantic activity, this particular year has a variety of unusual factors that have the potential to make this El Nino year somewhat different from many other El Nino years that we may think of, whether it's 1997, 2002, 2006, or 2009.

"Unusual factors" as in extremely warm sst anomalies, a strong WAM...you get the idea. The Atlantic may not be as vulnerable to the detrimental impacts of El Nino as it might be otherwise; it has a sort of "defensive shield" at its disposal, sort to say.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#102 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2023 11:23 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#103 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 25, 2023 11:43 am

SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities. :roll:


1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.

2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.

3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851 though still not based on the years since 2000.

In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.

However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#104 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 25, 2023 11:48 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities. :roll:


1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.

2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.

3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851.

In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.

However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".


You cannot really trust the database prior to around 1950. Without satellite and recon, the only time major hurricanes were identified was when they struck land before then, or when the unfortunate ship was hit (and survived to tell the tale).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#105 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 25, 2023 12:36 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#106 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 25, 2023 1:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities. :roll:


1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.

2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.

3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851.

In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.

However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".


You cannot really trust the database prior to around 1950. Without satellite and recon, the only time major hurricanes were identified was when they struck land before then, or when the unfortunate ship was hit (and survived to tell the tale).


Fair enough. Based on 1950+ stats, NOAA with those very wide ranges is not making a forecast but them calling it an "outlook" is fair game I suppose.

Since 1950, 33 of 73 (45%) years have had 12-17 storms.
Since 1950, 43 of 73 (59%) have had 5-9 H.
Since 1950, 55 of 73 (75%) have had 1-4 MH.

Regarding the MH outlook of 1-4:

If I were to pick a number from 1 to 100, asked someone to guess it, allowed for 75 guesses, and one of their 75 guesses turned out to be the number I picked, I wouldn't exactly be impressed about them guessing the number!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#107 Postby ouragans » Fri May 26, 2023 5:03 am

TWC had published its outlook on April 13

TS 15
H 7
MH 3

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... k-atlantic

Do they publish an update at the beginning of the season? I don't remember
Last edited by ouragans on Fri May 26, 2023 5:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#108 Postby ouragans » Fri May 26, 2023 5:08 am

INSMET (Cuban Weather Institute) had their outlook posted on May 12

TS 11
H 7

http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/announcement/view/22
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#109 Postby ouragans » Fri May 26, 2023 5:14 am

SMN (Mexico Weather Service) had their outlook. No date found

TS 10-16
H 3-7
MH 2-4

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ciclones- ... cales-2023
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#110 Postby chaser1 » Fri May 26, 2023 7:53 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities. :roll:


1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.

2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.

3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851 though still not based on the years since 2000.

In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.

However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".


I agree with you both. Semantics aside, I would have had greater respect for an outlook that simply stated an outright admission of: "We (NOAA) frankly have no idea of the type of season that 2023 will present".

Furthermore, I think that an "outlook" that made an effort to signal an enhanced risk of tropical genesis or storm track within the very large Atlantic basin would at least offer some basis for even participating in any "upcoming season" overview. Ultimately if the science is simply too weak to attempt foresight into regions or zones of increased activity or risk, and so unprecise to more narrowly foretell how much tropical activity is anticipated for the upcoming season..... then perhaps NOAA (and other agencies or private entities) should simply back out of the long-range prediction business and just stick to short term forecasts, monitoring, warnings, and their "it only takes one" mantra. Doing otherwise simply results in anticipated press releases such as this to fall flat and imply minimal confidence in the long-range exercise as a whole.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#111 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 26, 2023 9:58 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#112 Postby AnnularCane » Fri May 26, 2023 10:40 am

Well...ummm...errr... I'm sure they didn't pick those numbers lightly? :double:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#113 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 26, 2023 11:48 am



They are not alone as the University of Arizona also has high numbers.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#114 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 26, 2023 12:09 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#115 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 26, 2023 1:38 pm

Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#116 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri May 26, 2023 1:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1662113563274625024


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#117 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 26, 2023 1:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.


But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#118 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 26, 2023 1:50 pm

LarryWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.


But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table


Yeah, their forecast doesn't make sense.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#119 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 26, 2023 1:53 pm

IMO, UKMET sees activity more in the subtropics from an active WAM that travel from MDR to north of the Caribbean, than in the Caribbean proper with El Niño around.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#120 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 26, 2023 2:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.


Noaa also hints at the possibilty of lower shear across the Caribbean.


Image
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