Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#121 Postby canebeard » Fri May 26, 2023 2:19 pm

With so many entities (experts??) releasing seasonal outlooks (forecasts?) these days, I am beginning to feel those early days of seasonal outlooks by Bill Gray (1984 - ?) that simply said, "Normal, below normal, or above normal" was more appropriate for public awareness levels.
Last edited by canebeard on Fri May 26, 2023 5:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#122 Postby cainjamin » Fri May 26, 2023 3:49 pm

The amount of spread between the different forecasting groups is very interesting. It'll be really interesting to come back at the end of the season and see who ended up getting it right; I think the UKMET forecast is a little extreme but then again I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being close. Really shows how unpredictable this season is already.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#123 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 26, 2023 4:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.


But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table


Yeah, their forecast doesn't make sense.


One thing I'm wondering about is the concept of "RONI", a "relative" ONI that takes into account how warm the tropics over the entire globe are in relation to baseline (including the very warm MDR). Currently, the RONI is 0.4 cooler than ONI. So, the UKMET +1.8 ONI prediction is equivalent to only +1.4 RONI or a high end moderate instead of high end strong.
Your thoughts?

RONI: see figure 3a on page 6 of this:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... abe9ed/pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5

#124 Postby chaser1 » Sat May 27, 2023 10:50 am

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.


Noaa also hints at the possibilty of lower shear across the Caribbean.


https://i.postimg.cc/W3HLmqjQ/sst.jpg


Weaker Easterly trades (at least to me) implies far east Atlantic development and quick poleward recurve tracks. Could be a recipe for decent activity but this would also suggest an overall decreased risk to the Greater Antilles, Mexico, and U.S. (at least as a ratio of named T.S.'s)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#126 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 10:57 am

CSU will release the June forecast on Thursday at 11 AM EDT. He is teasing by posting those images. :D

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1663937074112897024


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May preseason forecast=13/6/2

#127 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 11:24 am

TSR adds one from the April forecast to the May forecast, now 13/6/2. The word uncertainty keeps being mentioned.

Image


Image

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May preseason forecast=13/6/2

#128 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 31, 2023 11:27 am

This might really be a season where predicting a dead-normal season, 14/7/3, might be the safest option :lol:

Impressive.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#129 Postby zzzh » Wed May 31, 2023 11:30 am

TSR May forecast is out.
The reason why the TSR pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 calls
for ACE-activity around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm is because the two predictors
that are used by the TSR primary model (§2.1) are collectively anticipated to suppress hurricane activity
in 2023. These predictors are the July-September forecast trade wind at 925mb height over the Caribbean
Sea and tropical North Atlantic (region 7.5°N–17.5°N, 30°W–100°W), and the August-September
forecast SST for the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W). The current forecast for
the July-September trade wind is for 0.53±0.79 ms-1
stronger than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020
climatology).

I'm not sure which model they are looking at, all the models I am looking at have below average trade wind and a much warmer MDR.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#130 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 31, 2023 11:45 am

cycloneye wrote:CSU will release the June forecast on Thursday at 11 AM EDT. He is teasing by posting those images. :D


I could tease you a little more and say that I've already discussed his updated numbers with him. He's looking at everything. One thing that doesn't make sense is the UKMET forecast of a very active season along with their predicted strong El Nino. Phil & I came up with the exact same numbers (including ACE) independently. I'll be tuning into hear his update tomorrow.

You can subscribe and watch the update here: https://form.jotform.com/200957673524057

P.S.
Just talked with Phil. His numbers tomorrow WILL include the January subtropical storm.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3

#131 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:07 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3

#132 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:51 am

:eek: Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3

#133 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:58 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:

#134 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:58 am

Image
Map of CSU's June 1st Analogs...
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:

#135 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:44 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/bwSZwmbg/CSU-June-1-Analogs.jpg [/url]
Map of CSU's June 1st Analogs...

Lots of memorable storms on that map
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#136 Postby al78 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 6:48 am

zzzh wrote:TSR May forecast is out.
The reason why the TSR pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 calls
for ACE-activity around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm is because the two predictors
that are used by the TSR primary model (§2.1) are collectively anticipated to suppress hurricane activity
in 2023. These predictors are the July-September forecast trade wind at 925mb height over the Caribbean
Sea and tropical North Atlantic (region 7.5°N–17.5°N, 30°W–100°W), and the August-September
forecast SST for the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W). The current forecast for
the July-September trade wind is for 0.53±0.79 ms-1
stronger than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020
climatology).

I'm not sure which model they are looking at, all the models I am looking at have below average trade wind and a much warmer MDR.


We use in-house statistical models. The trade wind prediction is based on the expected moderate El Nino developing through summer and persisting into autumn. El Nino conditions are assosciated with stronger than normal trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean sea and higher than normal vertical wind shear. The MDR SST forecast is based on a principal component analysis of prior month Atlantic SSTs and regressing the first PC against MDR SSTs. There is a potential issue with using the NCEP/NCAR SSTs which have in the past been biased low.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#137 Postby zzzh » Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:43 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#138 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:45 pm

zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260 :lol: :lol: :lol:


What in the world is that? :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#139 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260 :lol: :lol: :lol:


What in the world is that? :roll:


Here is the apparent reasoning (emphasis mine); I remain unconvinced that this is not slightly dubious.

The April/May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is slightly negative. Though El Niño has recently rapidly onset, the MEI values did not get high enough by the end of May to be included in our model. We only use an ENSO factor if the May tropical Atlantic SSTs are cooler than average or the MEI was greater than 1 by April/May (with neutral/cool SSTs in the Atlantic). Through our research we found that ENSO factors less significantly into overall activity when Atlantic SSTs are warm. With such warm tropical Atlantic SSTs we believe it will be difficult for ENSO to substantially limit the season, though 2023 will be an interesting test with a potential strong El Niño combatting the very warm tropical Atlantic.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#140 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 2:38 am

cycloneye wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260 :lol: :lol: :lol:


What in the world is that? :roll:


While I think that Univ. of Arizona forecast is really high, lets not lose sight of the fact that this is a center for higher education. It is in that light that I say KUDOS to those who got REALLY HIGH :ggreen: and had the cojones to stick their necks out and put THOSE numbers out there :notworthy:
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