Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139234
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2
The CSU analogs. Yeah, the year of Camille and 2004 are there.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/2pnu2WL.png
The Carribean major probability was honestly higher than I thought, as I expected the Caribbean to be a graveyard in an El Nino.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2
I take these predictions with a grain of salt and
put very little on weight them now. They are just
not reliable. Honestly a waste of time and all they
do is cause unnecessary anxiety.
put very little on weight them now. They are just
not reliable. Honestly a waste of time and all they
do is cause unnecessary anxiety.
0 likes
- weeniepatrol
- Category 3
- Posts: 865
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
- Location: WA State
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139234
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
weeniepatrol wrote:The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.
Very interesting.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 272
- Age: 24
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
weeniepatrol wrote:The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.
Maybe the ECMWF will finally redeem itself with an accurate forecast? Hope not, we don't need a 1969 repeat.
0 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3383
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
Hey, maybe the EPAC and the Atlantic will be extremely warm come peak season, with a raging El Niño and a sweltering MDR? Who knows?
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9864
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2
CSU analog years. Wide variety of options and clearly dependent on the El Nino timing and strength. A few legends in the mix!
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 272
- Age: 24
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2
Blown Away wrote:
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Y05QHPV1/2023-Analogs.jpg [/url]
CSU analog years. Wide variety of options and clearly dependent on the El Nino timing and strength. A few legends in the mix!
Ivan just sticking out like crazy in the Caribbean lol.
0 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2642
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
I'm kind of surprised they used 2004. I don't think a Modoki is expected this time, is it?
1 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
AnnularCane wrote:I'm kind of surprised they used 2004. I don't think a Modoki is expected this time, is it?
Yes. Modoki Nino only happens in multiyear ENSO+ events. Right now we have Nina transitioning to Nino, so Modoki is very unlikely here.
4 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9864
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
2004 is a biggie to have in there and had a "Weak El Nino" but didn't come after a La Nina. So I guess 2004 was used for above average SST only when compared to 2023?
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3383
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xJzxH5q/CSU-April-Analog-Years-Snipet.jpg [/url]
2004 is a biggie to have in there and had a "Weak El Nino" but didn't come after a La Nina. So I guess 2004 was used for above average SST only when compared to 2023?
Quite possibly, yes. Also 1969 is quite another biggie to have there; that season really fascinates me (and from what I've heard from some S2K members who love lurking on the ENSO thread, 1969 wasn't a Modoki year and more of the traditional type of El Nino, making its performance even more remarkable).
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1704
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
JB's latest (from free section). He too states that the warm Atlantic is an interesting unknown in an El Nino year.
It's JB so take with a grain of salt (those on a low sodium diet beware).
https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast x
It's JB so take with a grain of salt (those on a low sodium diet beware).
https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast x
3 likes
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 272
- Age: 24
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
OuterBanker wrote:JB's latest (from free section). He too states that the warm Atlantic is an interesting unknown in an El Nino year.
It's JB so take with a grain of salt (those on a low sodium diet beware).
https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast x
He's only really a bad source when it comes to climate change, but knowing him, he's probably gonna try to explain away anomalous warmth with something extremely stupid.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22483
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.
2 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2642
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.
Maybe the impact will wind up being whether we will be using names from the auxiliary list vs. not using names from the auxiliary list.
0 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 718
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.
They must really be hedging on potential resistance to the Niño from SSTs, as those are very bullish numbers, especially since they're anticipating this Niño to become particularly strong as well:
Tropical Atlantic SSTs are forecast to be the highest since 2010 and even hotter than 2020, and for the Nino 3.4 region,
forecast SSTs are among the highest. The high Nino SSTs should help bring down hurricane activities; it
will be an interesting battle between the two sides this summer.
1 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: aspen, Deshaunrob17, Google Adsense [Bot], Pas_Bon, skyline385, TheAustinMan and 58 guests