Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#61 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:47 am

The CSU analogs. Yeah, the year of Camille and 2004 are there.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#62 Postby Teban54 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:57 am


The Carribean major probability was honestly higher than I thought, as I expected the Caribbean to be a graveyard in an El Nino.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#63 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Apr 13, 2023 10:24 am

I take these predictions with a grain of salt and
put very little on weight them now. They are just
not reliable. Honestly a waste of time and all they
do is cause unnecessary anxiety.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#64 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:22 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#65 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:30 am

The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:32 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.


Very interesting.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#67 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:36 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
The ECMWF model is predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record (since 1981) and also the warmest equatorial eastern/central tropical Pacific on record. Despite the model’s forecast for an extremely strong El Niño, the extreme warmth that is predicted for the eastern/central North Atlantic result in a slightly above-average forecast from this model.

Maybe the ECMWF will finally redeem itself with an accurate forecast? Hope not, we don't need a 1969 repeat.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#68 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:47 am

Hey, maybe the EPAC and the Atlantic will be extremely warm come peak season, with a raging El Niño and a sweltering MDR? Who knows?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#69 Postby Blown Away » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:The CSU analogs. Yeah, the year of Camille is there.

https://i.imgur.com/ytmqVmt.jpg


Image

CSU analog years. Wide variety of options and clearly dependent on the El Nino timing and strength. A few legends in the mix!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#70 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The CSU analogs. Yeah, the year of Camille is there.

https://i.imgur.com/ytmqVmt.jpg


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Y05QHPV1/2023-Analogs.jpg [/url]

CSU analog years. Wide variety of options and clearly dependent on the El Nino timing and strength. A few legends in the mix!

Ivan just sticking out like crazy in the Caribbean lol.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#71 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:47 pm

I'm kind of surprised they used 2004. I don't think a Modoki is expected this time, is it?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#72 Postby zzzh » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:42 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I'm kind of surprised they used 2004. I don't think a Modoki is expected this time, is it?

Yes. Modoki Nino only happens in multiyear ENSO+ events. Right now we have Nina transitioning to Nino, so Modoki is very unlikely here.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#73 Postby Blown Away » Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:41 am

Image

2004 is a biggie to have in there and had a "Weak El Nino" but didn't come after a La Nina. So I guess 2004 was used for above average SST only when compared to 2023?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:CSU=13/6/2

#74 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Apr 14, 2023 8:02 am

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xJzxH5q/CSU-April-Analog-Years-Snipet.jpg [/url]

2004 is a biggie to have in there and had a "Weak El Nino" but didn't come after a La Nina. So I guess 2004 was used for above average SST only when compared to 2023?


Quite possibly, yes. Also 1969 is quite another biggie to have there; that season really fascinates me (and from what I've heard from some S2K members who love lurking on the ENSO thread, 1969 wasn't a Modoki year and more of the traditional type of El Nino, making its performance even more remarkable).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#75 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Apr 15, 2023 1:34 pm

JB's latest (from free section). He too states that the warm Atlantic is an interesting unknown in an El Nino year.

It's JB so take with a grain of salt (those on a low sodium diet beware).

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast x
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#76 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Apr 15, 2023 3:30 pm

OuterBanker wrote:JB's latest (from free section). He too states that the warm Atlantic is an interesting unknown in an El Nino year.

It's JB so take with a grain of salt (those on a low sodium diet beware).

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast x

He's only really a bad source when it comes to climate change, but knowing him, he's probably gonna try to explain away anomalous warmth with something extremely stupid.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#77 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Apr 15, 2023 11:02 pm

Climate change came on now!!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#78 Postby wxman57 » Sat Apr 29, 2023 7:13 pm

I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#79 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Apr 29, 2023 7:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.



Maybe the impact will wind up being whether we will be using names from the auxiliary list vs. not using names from the auxiliary list. :lol:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#80 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Apr 29, 2023 7:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.

They must really be hedging on potential resistance to the Niño from SSTs, as those are very bullish numbers, especially since they're anticipating this Niño to become particularly strong as well:
Tropical Atlantic SSTs are forecast to be the highest since 2010 and even hotter than 2020, and for the Nino 3.4 region,
forecast SSTs are among the highest. The high Nino SSTs should help bring down hurricane activities; it
will be an interesting battle between the two sides this summer.
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