Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#81 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 29, 2023 10:57 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.

They must really be hedging on potential resistance to the Niño from SSTs, as those are very bullish numbers, especially since they're anticipating this Niño to become particularly strong as well:
Tropical Atlantic SSTs are forecast to be the highest since 2010 and even hotter than 2020, and for the Nino 3.4 region,
forecast SSTs are among the highest. The high Nino SSTs should help bring down hurricane activities; it
will be an interesting battle between the two sides this summer.


I think the University of Arizona's specific methodology did note that they do tend to rely quite a bit on sst anomaly configuration. It would be rather interesting to see how the Atlantic fares in a year that is El Nino, but combined with 2010/2020-level warmth. Past El Nino years like 2006 may have gotten a +AMO by peak season, but they were nowhere near the levels of years like 2020 or 2010.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#82 Postby OuterBanker » Mon May 01, 2023 1:55 pm

Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#83 Postby Blown Away » Thu May 04, 2023 7:24 am

OuterBanker wrote:Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..


IMO Joe B's forecast & impact map are very much in line with a typical El Nino season. Not sure I've ever seen so many forecasts at or slightly above a normal season with a building El Nino and potential very strong El Nino. If these extreme SST's hold into JAS with a strong El Nino and the Atlantic is at or above a normal storm season, the climate change/warming may become more of a factor in season forecasts. JMHO...
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#84 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 04, 2023 7:40 am

Blown Away wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..


IMO Joe B's forecast & impact map are very much in line with a typical El Nino season. Not sure I've ever seen so many forecasts at or slightly above a normal season with a building El Nino and potential very strong El Nino. If these extreme SST's hold into JAS with a strong El Nino and the Atlantic is at or above a normal storm season, the climate change/warming may become more of a factor in season forecasts. JMHO...


2023 definitely seems to be one of those very rare years with very few, if any, reliable analogs. I think the combination between an impending, decent-strength traditional El Nino, and the prospect of a very robust +AMO/deep tropics makes it unlike many of the known El Nino years that have happened in recent times.

Shear might still be an issue (particularly in the Caribbean and Western MDR), but it would very intriguing to see this year end up being among the more active El Nino years. I'm definitely in the camp who believe that the warm Atlantic might matter for the season's activity.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#85 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 04, 2023 9:20 am

OuterBanker wrote:Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..


Thanks for posting. I don't shoot accurate messengers because all they're doing is passing along info from others. So, I'm not shooting you.

As many realize, JB more often than not puts the US E coast at higher than normal risk. So, his doing it again this time is not the least bit surprising. Predicting what he's going to predict each season is much easier than predicting actual tropical activity each year. Broken clock.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#86 Postby Iceresistance » Thu May 04, 2023 9:22 am

LarryWx wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..


Thanks for posting. I don't shoot accurate messengers because all they're doing is passing along info from others.

As many realize, JB more often than not puts the US E coast at higher than normal risk. So, his doing it again this time is not the least bit surprising. Predicting what he's going to predict each season is much easier than predicting actual tropical activity each year. Broken clock.


Well, JB lives in the East Coast, so he may have a EC bias...
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#87 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 04, 2023 9:34 am

Iceresistance wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Don't shoot the messenger please, but here is Joe B's impact forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast

I didn't post this weeks Saturday summary (free not from paid section) because it didn't have anything to do with the hurricane season.

At least I don't think it did, I couldn't make half way through without nodding off..


Thanks for posting. I don't shoot accurate messengers because all they're doing is passing along info from others.

As many realize, JB more often than not puts the US E coast at higher than normal risk. So, his doing it again this time is not the least bit surprising. Predicting what he's going to predict each season is much easier than predicting actual tropical activity each year. Broken clock.


Well, JB lives in the East Coast, so he may have a EC bias...


You have the right idea. It isn't just "may". He absolutely does have an E US forecast bias, whether it regards winter or tropical. For example, his latest winter forecast for the E US was a disaster. The best forecasters don't forecast with any bias and thus are much more credible.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby crownweather » Thu May 04, 2023 11:22 am

LarryWx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Thanks for posting. I don't shoot accurate messengers because all they're doing is passing along info from others.

As many realize, JB more often than not puts the US E coast at higher than normal risk. So, his doing it again this time is not the least bit surprising. Predicting what he's going to predict each season is much easier than predicting actual tropical activity each year. Broken clock.


Well, JB lives in the East Coast, so he may have a EC bias...


You have the right idea. It isn't just "may". He absolutely does have an E US forecast bias, whether it regards winter or tropical. For example, his latest winter forecast for the E US was a disaster. The best forecasters don't forecast with any bias and thus are much more credible.


Absolutely agree with this. I live on the East Coast and more specifically in the NE US & I can say without a doubt I don't put any bias into a seasonal forecast. I think this season the NE & Mid-Atlantic states have a lower than average chance of a tropical impact. OTOH, I still think that the Bahamas, eastern North Carolina & the Florida Panhandle have a very high chance with the Florida Peninsula and the central US Gulf Coast having a high chance of a tropical impact this season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 11, 2023 5:38 pm

News about when will NOAA release their forecast and it will be on May 25th. They put that at the ENSO Blog.

Image

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... cking-door
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast on May 25th

#90 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 9:29 am

I posted a few days ago the news about the May 25 NOAA outlook release, but here is from them with the media advisory.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... on-outlook

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#91 Postby Blown Away » Thu May 18, 2023 6:35 am

SFLcane wrote:Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck? :double:

Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.

https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945

https://i.postimg.cc/qM7cySqh/image.png

https://i.postimg.cc/P5gmGq4Y/mage2.png



Image
Image

It appears the low is "Recurring" within the LRC timeframes. LRC not predicting strength, just the low recurring within the LRC cycle, I believe. Just something to watch during these quiet times. :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast on May 25th

#92 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2023 11:55 am

The next three forecasts from the best known goverment and private are the following:

May 25=NOAA
May 30=TSR
June 1=CSU


There may be other forecasts from other private firms comming in the next few weeks like TWC, Accuweather, Crownweather Services, WeatherBell, Universities etc.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast on Thursday at 11 AM EDT

#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 1:57 pm

A reminder that tommorow at 11 AM, NOAA comes out with their forecast.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1661422425794281487


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 25, 2023 10:24 am

Looks like the El Nino/warm AMO battle has made the NOAA simply go for the rather safe but reasonable conclusion that a near normal season will happen. 12-17/ 5-9/ 1-4
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#95 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 25, 2023 10:27 am

NOAA with the useless range. Can't go wrong with that forecast
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2023 10:27 am

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#97 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 25, 2023 10:32 am

That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities. :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 25, 2023 10:34 am


I'm usually not a fan of their big ranges but I would say it's especially apt for this situation given the number of question marks surrounding this season. They're clearly taking note of this as denoted by this excerpt:
El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms

#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2023 10:45 am

Screenshot of the most important part.

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https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... on-outlook
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms

#100 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu May 25, 2023 11:02 am

I can understand why they do the ranges but a 12/5/1 season is completely different than 17/9/4. Would be nice if they could at least try to narrow it down a bit. But of course I'm not the expert here so they must do it for a reason.
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