Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1670084417987964930

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1670084417987964930?s=20

Is there a link to their forecast?

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1670084417987964930?s=20

Is there a link to their forecast?

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/ne ... k-mid-june

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676653853306163200

[wxman57]

I was just discussing the forecast with Phil. I can't tell you his numbers, but mine have increased to 19/8/3. That means 15/8/3 for the rest of the season. Lots of conflicting data with the latest EC forecast. It's forecasting a very strong El Nino but much above-normal activity. PDO is still quite cool, too.

[SFLcane]

I was just discussing the forecast with Phil. I can't tell you his numbers, but mine have increased to 19/8/3. That means 15/8/3 for the rest of the season. Lots of conflicting data with the latest EC forecast. It's forecasting a very strong El Nino but much above-normal activity. PDO is still quite cool, too.

No clues?

So that means phil will likely increase his numbers also potentially.

[Old-TimeCane]

I can't tell you his numbers, but mine have increased to 19/8/3. That means 15/8/3 for the rest of the season.

YOU saying THAT is enough to open my eyes and tell me everything I need/want to know. Wow!

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676653853306163200?t=9jAHBCwUGfE7sPEeYC8pqA&s=19

All I know is his models will shoot up into the stratosphere given the SSTAs. Wouldn't be a surprise to see a rather bullish forecast just because they can only hedge down from the statistical schemes so much

[Category5Kaiju]

You know things are about to get real when even wxman57 expresses bullishness. Yeesh

[wxman57]

You know things are about to get real when even wxman57 expresses bullishness. Yeesh

That said, I think we'll see a lot of tracks out to sea east of the Caribbean, but watch out in the NE Caribbean, Luis.

[cycloneye]

You know things are about to get real when even wxman57 expresses bullishness. Yeesh

That said, I think we'll see a lot of tracks out to sea east of the Caribbean, but watch out in the NE Caribbean, Luis.

Yes, not only me in PR but our friends in the Leewards in St Marteen, Barbara, Patti.

[wxman57]

CSU forecast update released - 18/9/4

[zzzh]

CSU is calling for a hyperactive season

[psyclone]

Oh my CSU coming in hot. This season might be a reversal of last year when everyone was too bullish at the outset. Now we're putting extra gas in the tank at the first pit stop.

[cycloneye]

This forecast is based on an extended-range early July statistical prediction
scheme that was developed using ~40 years of past data. Analog predictors are also
utilized. We are also including statistical/dynamical models based off of 25–40 years of
past data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met
Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui
Cambiamenti Climatici model as four additional forecast guidance tools. While there
remains considerable spread in our model guidance this year, the model guidance has
continued to shift upwards towards a very active season, necessitating a significant
increase in the forecast numbers with this update.

The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Niño conditions. However,
the intensity of the El Niño for the remainder of the hurricane season remains unclear,
although a moderate to strong event seems relatively likely. El Niño typically reduces
Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear.

However, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are
now at record levels, so despite the high potential for an El Niño, the impacts on tropical
Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear may not be as strong as is typically experienced
given the extremely warm Atlantic. The continued anomalous warming of the tropical
and subtropical Atlantic is the primary reason for the increase in our forecast numbers
with this update

[SFLcane]

This forecast is based on an extended-range early July statistical prediction
scheme that was developed using ~40 years of past data. Analog predictors are also
utilized. We are also including statistical/dynamical models based off of 25–40 years of
past data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met
Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui
Cambiamenti Climatici model as four additional forecast guidance tools. While there
remains considerable spread in our model guidance this year, the model guidance has
continued to shift upwards towards a very active season, necessitating a significant
increase in the forecast numbers with this update.

The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Niño conditions. However,
the intensity of the El Niño for the remainder of the hurricane season remains unclear,
although a moderate to strong event seems relatively likely. El Niño typically reduces
Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear.

However, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are
now at record levels, so despite the high potential for an El Niño, the impacts on tropical
Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear may not be as strong as is typically experienced
given the extremely warm Atlantic. The continued anomalous warming of the tropical
and subtropical Atlantic is the primary reason for the increase in our forecast numbers
with this update

Buckle up! FYI Phil's statistical model has the season going 200+ ace.

[wxman57]

When I talked with Phil yesterday, I told him that his numbers appeared a little hurricane-heavy at 14/9/4 for the remainder of the season. There are so many weak, short-lived storms these days that the number of hurricanes is become less than half of the total named storms. We're pretty close with the numbers, though. When I asked him about the analogs, he said there really wasn't any good analog. The 1951 season keeps coming up as an analog, though. That was a rather quiet season, though. Bottom line is I don't think anyone is very confident in the outlook for the rest of the season. Early on (April to early June), the MDR was much more favorable for development with very light trades. Now, the trades have picked way up and SSTs are cooling due to upwelling. Current waves are struggling to survive in the MDR.

[tolakram]

This season will be a good dataset for future forecasting, regardless of what happens.

[SFLcane]

When I talked with Phil yesterday, I told him that his numbers appeared a little hurricane-heavy at 14/9/4 for the remainder of the season. There are so many weak, short-lived storms these days that the number of hurricanes is become less than half of the total named storms. We're pretty close with the numbers, though. When I asked him about the analogs, he said there really wasn't any good analog. The 1951 season keeps coming up as an analog, though. That was a rather quiet season, though. Bottom line is I don't think anyone is very confident in the outlook for the rest of the season. Early on (April to early June), the MDR was much more favorable for development with very light trades. Now, the trades have picked way up and SSTs are cooling due to upwelling. Current waves are struggling to survive in the MDR.

Waves are suppose to struggle now its peak SAL time in a typical season there is 0 till mid Aug. Again we are in uncharted territory with this record warm Atl and enso coming on we shall see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Analog years.

\

Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
1951 12 67.00 8 34.25 3 4.50 126.3 126.2
1969 18 92.25 12 40.25 5 6.50 165.7 181.7
1987 7 37.25 3 5.00 1 0.50 34.4 45.6
2004 15 93.00 9 45.50 6 22.25 226.9 231.6
2005 28 126.25 15 49.75 7 17.50 245.3 276.7
2006 10 58.00 5 21.25 2 2.00 83.3 86.8
Average 15.0 79.9 8.7 31.2 3.7 8.4 144 154
2023 Forecast 18 90 9 35 4 9 160 170