Big ones for 2023

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Category5Kaiju
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Big ones for 2023

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:24 pm

It's almost time to ring in the new year, and as the tradition goes, blindly predicting what the "big ones" are going to be for the upcoming season!

With that being said, which names do you think will be given to memorable and potentially retireable storm(s) for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season? I will begin with my personal thoughts. I think that 2023 will find a way to generate one or two powerful major strength storms, regardless of ENSO state, in the Atlantic Ocean. I think the EPAC will be above average at least, but the EPAC will find a way to have all of its major hurricanes not impact land and harmlessly spin out to sea, much like the past 7 years.

Regarding the Atlantic, I have a suspicion that 2023 will be the year that Emily wreaks tremendous havoc. Emily has had a pretty healthy streak of major hurricane attainment even during quiet years such as 1987 and 1993, with 2005 being the most memorable incarnation of that name. With that being said, it almost seems as if destiny is waiting for Emily to finally meet her end. Considering we have not had a retired E name since 2015 and the decent chances of +ENSO status that would make this Atlantic season not go bonkers in named storms, I feel like Emily will be a storm that occurs in mid to late August. Oh, and yes, I do not believe that 2023's August will be as unfavorable as 2022's August (I'm betting we will see named storms in August :D ).

The second name I have a suspicion will be bad is Harold. Perhaps it's because it is following the heels of the very destructive Harvey or because I personally had a bizarre dream about Harold being a Miami-slamming Cat 5 a few nights after Ian (yes, I swear that this actually happened). However, I am laying odds that 2023 is going to give us a temporary respite from the I curse and instead have the storm right before Idalia turn out to be an extremely bad storm (Idalia on the other hand will turn out to be a nothing-burger, weak, short-lived TS in the middle of the open ocean :lol: ). Timewise, I am thinking sometime in mid-September. The decent chances of a +ENSO state additionally make me believe that there won't really be an October or November monster to fret about.

So my preliminary guesses are: Emily (late August) and Harold (mid September)
Replacement names for 2029 are: Elizabeth and Herbert
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Dec 30, 2022 3:52 pm

2023 Names:

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

I think I will go with Emily again. I predicted Emily in 2017 and well...we know how that went. But I will give her another try. 8-) Jose is also calling out to me. And what the heck, maybe the I storm again (kind of like picking a "safe school" when choosing colleges? lol). Although at the same time I'm not actually feeling that confident that both Idalia and Jose will be big ones.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#3 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:53 pm

Any name between Arlene and Rina :sun:

Well... my bets for now are: Don, Harold and Idalia.
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:05 am

I feel like since I believe there will be a quick onset to El Niño the name Cindy pops into my head as a July major before El Niño becomes firmly entrenched and Cindy will be 120mph in the GOM but weaken upon landfall to a tropical storm due to shear from the on coming El Niño
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#5 Postby Teban54 » Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:02 am

Given what I said in the naming list retirements thread, I have a wild take... Arlene.

A very late season start due to transitioning to neutral ENSO or El Nino, followed by an Allen or Andrew-like scenario (in terms of timing, not track or intensity).

Fun fact: Arlene is the most frequently used name since the practice of naming tropical cyclones began.

More serious guesses: Gert, Idalia, Jose.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:59 pm

Harold and Jose will be my two. Yeah the ones surrounding the I name.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#7 Postby Foxfires » Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:20 am

This list seems to have a knack for retiring names with different letters so might as well bet on any name that starts with a letter that this list hasn't retired.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#8 Postby FireRat » Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:23 am

Franklin
Gert
Harold
Jose
Margot

Those 5 are my guesses, although not expecting all of them to be big ones, but maybe 1 to 2 of those names. Best bets IMO are on Franklin and Harold, peak season majors in an otherwise quieter season, and think one or both of these could be Caribbean cruisers that go into Hispaniola or other nearby islands, like in 1987 or 1963 for example.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#9 Postby zal0phus » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:01 am

Emily, Gert, and Jose. I especially hope Gert is on its way out.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#10 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:14 pm

Following over 20 minutes of careful analysis of my remaining ramen noodles from last nights .59 "post-dinner" cup a soup, I am 89% convinced that (3) Atlantic storm names will be retired in 2023.

After a quick start to an otherwise early ending, low yield (11/5/2), and primarily meridional storm track hurricane season, I believe the following storm names will be retired:

Arlene - Will be the earliest on record hurricane (barely), to form in May/early June striking somewhere between Gulfport and Panama City with severely flooding rains.

Franklin and Gert will landfall and impact N. Florida and South Carolina as a potent (Category 2/3) "one-two punch" within a week of each other during August immediately prior to El Nino conditions begin to significantly impact the basin.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#11 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:07 pm

My bets are on 2023 being a “boring” season and Harold being a silly cyclone.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#12 Postby Teban54 » Mon Jan 23, 2023 4:39 am

CFLHurricane wrote:My bets are on 2023 being a “boring” season and Harold being a silly cyclone.

I would surely welcome a boring season after 7 destructive seasons in a row.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#13 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:24 pm

chaser1 wrote:Following over 20 minutes of careful analysis of my remaining ramen noodles from last nights .59 "post-dinner" cup a soup, I am 89% convinced that (3) Atlantic storm names will be retired in 2023.

After a quick start to an otherwise early ending, low yield (11/5/2), and primarily meridional storm track hurricane season, I believe the following storm names will be retired:

Arlene - Will be the earliest on record hurricane (barely), to form in May/early June striking somewhere between Gulfport and Panama City with severely flooding rains.

Franklin and Gert will landfall and impact N. Florida and South Carolina as a potent (Category 2/3) "one-two punch" within a week of each other during August immediately prior to El Nino conditions begin to significantly impact the basin.


What if we have no el niño this year?
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#14 Postby WalterWhite » Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:45 pm

Taking a shot in the dark here! :D

Arlene - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in mid-June in the subtropical Atlantic
Bret - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late July
Cindy - an MDR Category III hurricane that impacts Florida in late August
Don - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late August
Emily - a short-lived tropical storm that struggles in the MDR in early September
Franklin - an MDR Category I hurricane that delivers moderate impacts to Central America in mid-September
Gert - a short-lived subtropical storm that struggles in the subtropical Atlantic in mid-September
Harold - a Category I hurricane that forms in late October in the subtropical Atlantic
Idalia - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in early November in the subtropical Atlantic

I am betting on Cindy!
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#15 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:00 pm

My bets are these:

Don: A well-crafted copy of Hurricane Danny '15.

Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.


IDALIA: Similar intensity to Allen'80, similar route to Andrew'92. JUST A HOT TAKE. :D
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#16 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:58 pm

Always a safe bet for the "I" name - Idalia is my bet.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#17 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Mar 31, 2023 3:37 pm

Arlene: already happened in January strong TS near the Azores.
Bret: The ugliest storm since Barry 2019, but well east of Bermuda.
Cindy: 80 mph near SC/NC Border.
Don: Sheared 45 mph mess in the MDR.
Emily: Exactly the same as 2017.
Franklin: Forms from the remnants of an EPAC storm, 40 mph slop that dies in the GoM without making landfall.
Gert: Recurves west of Bermuda as a C3, struggles in the MDR.
Harold: Dies in the Caribbean graveyard.
Idalia: Similar to Gert, but does a Sandy-like curve into New England, retirement worthy.
Jose: Long-tracked hurricane, recurves east of Bermuda.
Katia: Forms from a CAG, hits Louisiana as a Mid-TS.
Lee: Subtropical slop.
Margot: People will argue about if it should've been named at all.
Nigel: Subtropical slop that lives for WAY too long.
Ophelia: Late major over the Florida Keys, retirement worthy.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#18 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 02, 2023 5:49 pm

I'll go with:
Season total 14/5/3

Majors:
Emily (100kt Cat 3): Forms in MDR before recurving between the east coast and Bermuda. Briefly reaches major status in the subtropics.

Idalia (120kt Cat 4): Gulf storm that impacts the gulf coast, strongest storm of the season, Idalia gets retired.

Margot (105kt Cat 3): Late season storm that briefly reaches Cat 3 in the subtropics, no land impacts.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#19 Postby chaser1 » Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:19 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Always a safe bet for the "I" name - Idalia is my bet.


I think you're right on with this one. I think (v)Idalia is gonna make for some "unexpected watery eyes" around the N.E. Fla/Georgia coastline.
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Re: Big ones for 2023

#20 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:56 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:My bets are these:

Don: A well-crafted copy of Hurricane Danny '15.

Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.


IDALIA: Similar intensity to Allen'80, similar route to Andrew'92. JUST A HOT TAKE. :D

My final bets are:
Franklin;
• Harold;
Idalia;
• and Jose.

Now let's wait to see what happens next :D
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