Big ones for 2023

[Category5Kaiju]

With what is happening now, I'm starting to think that whatever "big one" this season has might be after the I storm.

Unbelievable how active the Atlantic is during a moderate El Nino, at least from a NS perspective

Edit: well dang me, it might very well be the I storm after all *facepalm*

[WalterWhite]

Taking a shot in the dark here!

Arlene - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in mid-June in the subtropical Atlantic
Bret - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late July
Cindy - an MDR Category III hurricane that impacts Florida in late August
Don - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late August
Emily - a short-lived tropical storm that struggles in the MDR in early September
Franklin - an MDR Category I hurricane that delivers moderate impacts to Central America in mid-September
Gert - a short-lived subtropical storm that struggles in the subtropical Atlantic in mid-September
Harold - a Category I hurricane that forms in late October in the subtropical Atlantic
Idalia - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in early November in the subtropical Atlantic

I am betting on Cindy!

Holy crap I was so wrong with this

[zhukm29]

You can just guess the I name for these threads every year and you'd be more often right than not.

It's a season that is predicted to be active, like 2017 or 2021? You get a devastating storm like Irma and Ida during peak season.
It's the 2019 season, which had essentially no activity until the last week of August? You get a historic flooding disaster with Imelda.
It's a quieter season like 2022 that did not get to the I storm until the last week of September? It doesn't matter, you get Ian.
It's a season like 2020 that has been continuously spamming storms since late May? You still get Isaias, one of the costliest hurricanes to strike during the month of July.
It's an El Niño year like 2023 that many people expected would be less active early on? Doesn't matter, you get Idalia.
It's 2013, and the tropics are dead in the Atlantic? Well, Ingrid devastates Mexico anyway and gets retired.

Oh, and to top it all off with the most insane occurrence of all, a storm named after the letter I nearly reached category 5 strength and devastates Central America in mid-November 2020, two weeks before the season ended.

At least the people who guessed Jose in this thread can take solace in the fact that Idalia should have been named Jose, since it is the 10th named storm of the season. But alas, the one year we should have avoided the I curse we end up not naming a storm... what an absurd coincidence!

Now, watch Isaac escape retirement again next year, while the other I names have retired several generations...

[AnnularCane]

It's a season like 2020 that has been continuously spamming storms since late May? You still get Isaias, one of the costliest hurricanes to strike during the month of July.
[/strike]

August for the US. And don't forget Iota! (Okay, technically a Greek letter, but still.)

As far as big storms, I names are usually a safe pick. You will be right more often than not. In fact it's starting to seem like a gamble to NOT pick one.

[Hurricane2022]

Harold and Jose will be my two. Yeah the ones surrounding the I name.

[Craters]

Taking a shot in the dark here!

Arlene - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in mid-June in the subtropical Atlantic
Bret - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late July
Cindy - an MDR Category III hurricane that impacts Florida in late August
Don - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late August
Emily - a short-lived tropical storm that struggles in the MDR in early September
Franklin - an MDR Category I hurricane that delivers moderate impacts to Central America in mid-September
Gert - a short-lived subtropical storm that struggles in the subtropical Atlantic in mid-September
Harold - a Category I hurricane that forms in late October in the subtropical Atlantic
Idalia - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in early November in the subtropical Atlantic

I am betting on Cindy!

Holy crap I was so wrong with this

It really reads well, though...

[DioBrando]

My bets are these:

Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica ... klin_(2023)

Hurricane Franklin was a long-lived, erratic, and powerful hurricane that brought tropical-storm force winds to parts of the Greater Antilles and Bermuda. The seventh named storm,[1] second hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Franklin impacted Hispaniola as a tropical storm before strengthening into a high-end Category 4 hurricane several days later. Possessing a large wind field, the hurricane produced tropical storm force winds over Bermuda. It became extratropical as it accelerated into the open northern Atlantic.

Meteorological history
Formed
August 20, 2023
Extratropical
September 1, 2023
Dissipated
September 8, 2023
Category 4 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure
926 mbar (hPa); 27.34 inHg

[DioBrando]

Franklin
Gert
Harold
Jose
Margot

Those 5 are my guesses, although not expecting all of them to be big ones, but maybe 1 to 2 of those names. Best bets IMO are on Franklin and Harold, peak season majors in an otherwise quieter season, and think one or both of these could be Caribbean cruisers that go into Hispaniola or other nearby islands, like in 1987 or 1963 for example.

Then this happened

Hurricane Franklin was a long-lived, erratic, and powerful hurricane that brought tropical-storm force winds to parts of the Greater Antilles and Bermuda. The seventh named storm,[1] second hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Franklin impacted Hispaniola as a tropical storm before strengthening into a high-end Category 4 hurricane several days later. Possessing a large wind field, the hurricane produced tropical storm force winds over Bermuda. It became extratropical as it accelerated into the open northern Atlantic.

Hurricane Franklin

Franklin shortly before attaining peak intensity on August 28
Meteorological history
Formed
August 20, 2023
Extratropical
September 1, 2023
Dissipated
September 8, 2023
Category 4 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure
926 mbar (hPa); 27.34 inHg

[FireRat]

Franklin
Gert
Harold
Jose
Margot

Those 5 are my guesses, although not expecting all of them to be big ones, but maybe 1 to 2 of those names. Best bets IMO are on Franklin and Harold, peak season majors in an otherwise quieter season, and think one or both of these could be Caribbean cruisers that go into Hispaniola or other nearby islands, like in 1987 or 1963 for example.

Then this happened

Hurricane Franklin was a long-lived, erratic, and powerful hurricane that brought tropical-storm force winds to parts of the Greater Antilles and Bermuda. The seventh named storm,[1] second hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Franklin impacted Hispaniola as a tropical storm before strengthening into a high-end Category 4 hurricane several days later. Possessing a large wind field, the hurricane produced tropical storm force winds over Bermuda. It became extratropical as it accelerated into the open northern Atlantic.

Hurricane Franklin

Franklin shortly before attaining peak intensity on August 28
Meteorological history
Formed
August 20, 2023
Extratropical
September 1, 2023
Dissipated
September 8, 2023
Category 4 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure
926 mbar (hPa); 27.34 inHg

Wow, I didn't do too bad with Franklin as one of my guesses! Good thing he didn't plow into Hispaniola as a hurricane. Now look how far we are with the names, already at Phillippe! Beyond what I would've considered for this Nino year.

[WalterWhite]

In all fairness, the "I curse", in a sense, does not count for 2023 because of the unnamed subtropical storm. Idalia should have been named Jose.