2023 Global ACE: - NH - 635.4 / NATL - 145.6 / EPAC - 164.0 / WPAC - 271.6 / NIO - 55.0

[Steve]

The big question is how much ACE will Lee generate and help the North Atlantic reach the 100 mark.

Who knows. But 2 Lees ago I got busted by Florida State Park police for boogie boarding where the lifeguards told me to go play. Unfortunately there were vehicle rescues earlier that day for overwash on Ft Pickens road. 2011.

[weeniepatrol]

The big question is how much ACE will Lee generate and help the North Atlantic reach the 100 mark.

Who knows. But 2 Lees ago I got busted by Florida State Park police for boogie boarding where the lifeguards told me to go play. Unfortunately there were vehicle rescues earlier that day for overwash on Ft Pickens road. 2011.

2 Lees ago

[Steve]

The big question is how much ACE will Lee generate and help the North Atlantic reach the 100 mark.

Who knows. But 2 Lees ago I got busted by Florida State Park police for boogie boarding where the lifeguards told me to go play. Unfortunately there were vehicle rescues earlier that day for overwash on Ft Pickens road. 2011.

2 Lees ago

Hey patrol, what are your thoughts on ACE contribution from this Lee? I'm thinking 35-40 maybe getting us to around 90?

[Woofde]

I have a feeling Lee might be holding onto Cat 5 status for a few days. Wouldn't be surprised to see over 50 ACE. A single day at Cat 5 status is around 8 units. Most models are keeping Lee strong for around 10 days or some even more.

[Ntxw]

I have a feeling Lee might be holding onto Cat 5 status for a few days. Wouldn't be surprised to see over 50 ACE. A single day at Cat 5 status is around 8 units. Most models are keeping Lee strong for around 10 days or some even more.

Current NWS forecast would yield an additional ~20 units. If it were to maintain cat5 during the peaks then closer to ~25-30 units. After 30N/70W depends on the cold upwelling from Franklin and effects on Lee. ~90-100 total units for the Atlantic might be a good ballpark after Lee.

[cycloneye]

And then comes a bit more if 96L/ Margot turns into a hurricane.

[weeniepatrol]

Who knows. But 2 Lees ago I got busted by Florida State Park police for boogie boarding where the lifeguards told me to go play. Unfortunately there were vehicle rescues earlier that day for overwash on Ft Pickens road. 2011.

2 Lees ago

Hey patrol, what are your thoughts on ACE contribution from this Lee? I'm thinking 35-40 maybe getting us to around 90?

Hey Steve,

that is exactly my thoughts as well.

[kevin]

Based on the next 5 days of NHC advisories the Atlantic will end up with roughly 110 ACE on September 16. This would already put it above the mean of 96.7 ACE for the entire season. It would also get Lee to a total ACE of 41.3. This is not counting potential new systems after Lee and Margot.

Lee (next 5 days): 19.7 ACE
Margot (next 5 days): 9.8 ACE

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lee has surpassed Franklin on the ACE count and the North Atlantic is getting closer to 100 ACE units with 88.0 as of this post.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic surpassed the 100 mark and surely will get many more units in the next 2 weeks with 97L as a TC and another wave that will emerge Africa on the 20th.

[weeniepatrol]

Anyone else notice that we are going to surpass the EPAC in ACE soon at this rate?

[galaxy401]

Depending on what Nigel does, the Atlantic has a chance to pass the EPAC in ACE albeit briefly due to 95E expected to develop.

[WalterWhite]

Depending on what Nigel does, the Atlantic has a chance to pass the EPAC in ACE albeit briefly due to 95E expected to develop.

Models expect Invest 95E to be pretty weak, so I do not expect it to add much ACE to the East Pacific.

[Category5Kaiju]

Depending on what Nigel does, the Atlantic has a chance to pass the EPAC in ACE albeit briefly due to 95E expected to develop.

Models expect Invest 95E to be pretty weak, so I do not expect it to add much ACE to the East Pacific.

Fun fact: if 95E becomes Kenneth, it will likely be the first time a Kenneth failed to reach Category 4 status in that basin.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

[WalterWhite]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

There is nothing stopping a major hurricane spinning up from a non-tropical origin in the subtropics akin to Epsilon (2020) or Ophelia (2017). The subtropics are extremely warm, and ENSO does not really impact the subtropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1703754419756757343

[AtlanticWind]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

I am doubting El Niño will have any effect on this season .
I am in a prove it to me at this point as the Atlantic
just continues to keep firing the storms one after another.

[MarioProtVI]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think activity will not go higher than 115 ACE? I understand that we're in a robust El Nino, but I also don't really see any screaming signs of the EPAC springing to life with multiple storms (at least on long range models) or the Atlantic all of a sudden shutting down (especially considering the level of warmth in the deep tropics compared to the subtropics, where storms like Margot, Franklin, and Lee have already managed to take heat out of).