2023 Global ACE: - NH - 635.4 / NATL - 145.6 / EPAC - 164.0 / WPAC - 271.6 / NIO - 55.0

[aspen]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

We’ll definitely surpass 120 ACE by the end of the month. Sure Nigel is a disappointment, but it should get the basin close to 115 once it wraps up, and then we might get at least two more NS this month. 140 ACE is still on the table if we get even one more long-tracking hurricane.

[galaxy401]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

This is already aging badly. Nigel is now Cat 2 and a new disturbance is forecast to develop (maybe another off the East coast). I think 150 ACE is still very much in the possibility.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

This is already aging badly. Nigel is now Cat 2 and a new disturbance is forecast to develop (maybe another off the East coast). I think 150 ACE is still very much in the possibility.

Not to mention we don't even know what October or November will bring. The way I see it, unless we start seeing a string of strong cold fronts swoop down or a massive burst in EPAC activity, I'm inclined to say that nothing significant will likely stop Atlantic activity.

[Steve]

2 Lees ago

Hey patrol, what are your thoughts on ACE contribution from this Lee? I'm thinking 35-40 maybe getting us to around 90?

Hey Steve,

that is exactly my thoughts as well.

I been on vacation for a week in W NC. But we hit the jackpot on this call/agreement. 35-40 was
36.8. It was an ACE beast along with Franklin. Long range GFS looking like that final MS/AL hit but there’s no way in hell I’m buying 930’s. Caution is GFS literally never telegraphs anything remotely in the 930’s 2 1/2 weeks out. Those millibars are last 3 days of August type numbers along the north Gulf. ????????

[weeniepatrol]

Hey patrol, what are your thoughts on ACE contribution from this Lee? I'm thinking 35-40 maybe getting us to around 90?

Hey Steve,

that is exactly my thoughts as well.

I been on vacation for a week in W NC. But we hit the jackpot on this call/agreement. 35-40 was
36.8. It was an ACE beast along with Franklin. Long range GFS looking like that final MS/AL hit but there’s no way in hell I’m buying 930’s. Caution is GFS literally never telegraphs anything remotely in the 930’s 2 1/2 weeks out. Those millibars are last 3 days of August type numbers along the north Gulf. ????????

Yeah, not believing it until I see it. There's a chance of course but with all the recurves this year...

for what little it's probablly worth, SSTs in the West Atlantic are still scorching.

As for ACE, the Atlantic is less than 10 units behind the EPAC now. Will need more activity than Kenneth to maintain its lead.

[MarioProtVI]

The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.

This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.

This is already aging badly. Nigel is now Cat 2 and a new disturbance is forecast to develop (maybe another off the East coast). I think 150 ACE is still very much in the possibility.

Yeah things changed really quick after I posted this lmao

[cycloneye]

Ophelia will add a few ACE units but the larger one looming will be future Phillippe from 90L that may get a lot.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how much ACE Philippe gets to lift more the North Atlantic.

[Teban54]

As of writing, CSU's website has the 2023 Atlantic season at 119.9 ACE.

Per NOAA definitions, an above-normal season requires 126.1 ACE. This seems easily achievable with 91L.

FYI, a hyperactive season requires 159.6 ACE.

[NotSparta]

Seems like a pretty solid chance the Atlantic ACE at least temporarily jumps ahead of the EPAC. Not what I would've thought in an El Niño

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic has surpassed in ACE units the EPAC this morning at 15z in a El Niño year.

[MarioProtVI]

With Philippe becoming the dominant system of the interaction with Rina and the upward trend of the intensity forecast, it has a solid shot of reaching 30-35 ACE if the models are right and it becomes a major (GFS keeps it alive the entire 384 hr run!!). Signals also beginning to emerge for something in the Caribbean. We may approach borderline hyperactivity threshold (~150-160 ACE) if things pan out how I think they may do so.

[Woofde]

The North Atlantic has surpassed in ACE units the EPAC this morning at 15z in a El Niño year.

It's most likely that the Atlantic will keep that lead. Historically speaking by October and November the Atlantic has a clear edge climatologically speaking. From Sept 28th to finish, the Atlantic roughly averages another 30 ACE, while the Eastern Pacific only averages another 20 ACE.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1708302164563529912

[Stormybajan]

At 09z today October 2nd, the CSU website has updated the North Atlantic Hurricane season's ACE score as 126.2, means it is now officially an above average season no matter what , and has produced an ACE point every single day heading back to August 20th I think, what a streak of activity! Also will be the first above average Atlantic Hurricane Season with a strong El Nino present!! my prediction of 13-6-2 and 82 ACE points was way below reality

EDIT 10 mins later....heres Phil confirming it!
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1708817930341724609

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Quite a quality-over-quantity season in the West Pacific. Despite being under a whopping five named storm deficit to date (15 vs 20), the basin is poised to have the most ACE since 2018 after Bolaven is all said and done (roughly 278-280). The West Pacific now has the most category 3+ days since 2018, at 27 days, which is the territory of above-average seasons (1952, 1967, 1972, 1990). This is thanks to the flurry of high-octane, intense, and long-lived storms such as Mawar, Khanun, Saola, Koinu and now Bolaven. To date, we are about 10 days above normal for C3+ days.

[ThunderForce]

Crazy to think that the North Atlantic's ACE is only 5.7 less than the Eastern Pacific's, despite the strong El Nino that would usually cause the NATL to have little activity. This is definitely not your normal season.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy to think that the North Atlantic's ACE is only 5.7 less than the Eastern Pacific's, despite the strong El Nino that would usually cause the NATL to have little activity. This is definitely not your normal season.

Definitely. Even crazier is that this will only be the second season on record where all of the NHem basins will be above average, after 2018. It's also the third where both the Atlantic and EPac are so, after 2016 and 2018.

However, none of them were during an El Niño that's moderate or stronger. Much less the Atlantic being above normal by itself. This is making up for the three year snoozefest in the NHem, barring the crazy 2020 Atlantic.

[gib]

With the recent blurt of activity (Norma, Sanba, and Tammy), the Northern Hemisphere has exceeded its climatological average for a full year. Just a formality at this point as doing so has looked inevitable for a while. All basins being above average in cat. 3+ days certainly helps.

Kind of a weird season, especially with the backdrop of El Niño. But it's not over yet! Will the Atlantic exhaust its name list? Will the WPAC usurp the named storm lead? Will the NIO build upon its burly first half? Stay tuned!

[WalterWhite]

The North Atlantic has already produced 11.2 ACE over the first three weeks of October. The 1991-2020 mean ACE for OND is 28.4. The North Atlantic thus needs to produce an additional 17.2 ACE just to match the 1991-2020 late season mean.