2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top) Dora / Otis retired

[CrazyC83]

I still think the NHC should switch to a WPAC style naming list, where it just rotates and picks up wherever the previous season left off.

So if Phillippe is the last storm this year, then the first TS next year would be Rina.

But I doubt the NHC will do that anytime soon

This. Right. Here.
I was thinking the same thing, perhaps we should switch to the WPAC naming system. It is very difficult that we will see another A name retired in the future, let alone a "big one", with modern technology sniffing out the A name in June or earlier.

Perhaps the "I-curse" could lead to this change... much like 2020 led to the change involving Greek names.

In the case of A-names, about the only way we'll see another one retired is in a very slow season, or some Allison-like flood disaster in a June storm.

[WalterWhite]

Idalia's damage estimates have been reduced to $2.2 billion. With that in mind, I would not be super confident that Idalia would be retired.

[Xyls]

Personally I think whether Idalia leaves or not will come down to whether another storm overshadows her coverage-wise later in the season. She seems right around in line with the impacts Isaac did in 2012 and Sally in 2020 and those storms were not retired. The big caveat here though would be that both of those years had bigger storms during the season that overshadowed them (Sandy in 2012, and Laura in 2020).

If we have another big storm than Idalia is not going. However, if we don't it could be a situation like Lili in 2002 which was pretty heavily covered but didn't actually do that much at landfall yet was still retired anyways. Because it was the main storm event that season.

As to whether Idalia SHOULD be retired? I don't think so based on American standards. But I'm an Atlantic Canadian and we retire storms for lesser impacts so I guess I have no right to talk!

[WalterWhite]

Looking at the reports regarding Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee, I am unsure whether the name "Lee" will be retired. On one hand, Canada has very lax standards regarding hurricane name retirement, but on the other hand, Lee certainly does not appear to be a redux of Fiona damage-wise.

[Category5Kaiju]

Some random trivia facts if Lee does not end up getting retired:

1. This will be the first time an Atlantic Category 5 hurricane with 1-min sustained windspeeds of greater than 160 mph does not get retired.

2. This will be the second L-named Atlantic Category 5 that does not get retired (Lorenzo was the first). Interestingly, Category 5 hurricanes that start with E and L have a tendency to avoid retirement.

[Xyls]

Looking at the reports regarding Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee, I am unsure whether the name "Lee" will be retired. On one hand, Canada has very lax standards regarding hurricane name retirement, but on the other hand, Lee certainly does not appear to be a redux of Fiona damage-wise.

Canada did not retire Arthur and this had far less severe impacts than that storm. Lee won't be going anywhere.

Lee was the second coming of Carol (1953) and Carol was retired due to her 1954 version not the 1953.

[zal0phus]

I think there's a very good chance this is the first year since 2014 with no retirements. Idalia sticks out as the likeliest candidate, but even then, it just doesn't seem to have the same level of severity in the popular consciousness.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think there's a very good chance this is the first year since 2014 with no retirements. Idalia sticks out as the likeliest candidate, but even then, it just doesn't seem to have the same level of severity in the popular consciousness.

Well...unless there's an October or November beast...

[zal0phus]

I think there's a very good chance this is the first year since 2014 with no retirements. Idalia sticks out as the likeliest candidate, but even then, it just doesn't seem to have the same level of severity in the popular consciousness.

Well...unless there's an October or November beast...

Tbh I anticipate a mysterious basin shutdown akin to 2021 so I can't say I expect it. But this is only a hunch on my end

[Category5Kaiju]

I think there's a very good chance this is the first year since 2014 with no retirements. Idalia sticks out as the likeliest candidate, but even then, it just doesn't seem to have the same level of severity in the popular consciousness.

Well...unless there's an October or November beast...

Tbh I anticipate a mysterious basin shutdown akin to 2021 so I can't say I expect it. But this is only a hunch on my end

2021's shutdown was mainly because of how there was a very powerful Atlantic Nino season-wide that focused warmth toward the equator. This meant that when October rolled around, any waves that could have developed in the Caribbean instead ran over South America and spilled over into the EPAC (which explains why the EPAC was pretty active during that timeframe while the Atlantic was extremely quiet).

As of now, the anomalous warmth is centered over the deep tropics and Western Atlantic (rather than the equatorial Atlantic), which would imho make a 2021-like shutdown rather unlikely. Especially given how this season has been behaving quite un-El Nino-like too, I expect there to be activity in the western part of the basin in October and November. It's probably a good idea to stay vigilant until the very end!

[Category5Kaiju]

Started to think about this quite recently and figured maybe a poll and associated responses (Yes or No) would be interesting to see.

It's very clear the 2023 season has been unusually active in the face of an El Nino. However, it's also becoming quite clear that many storms are tracking out to sea, and for the ones that have delivered impacts to land, the most impactful seems to have been Idalia, which impacted a rather sparsely populated region of Florida and (thankfully) never delivered the level of destruction that some of the recent Gulf storms (like Harvey, Michael, Laura, and Ian) inflicted.

We're now approaching late September. We still have two more months before hurricane season officially ends. But this begs the question: will the 2023 hurricane season deliver at least one storm (whether it is a TS or a major hurricane) that delivers enough impacts for it to become the "flag-bearer" of this season and is subsequently retired next spring? Or will this season become the first season since 2014 to not have any retired storm names, and possibly the first recorded hyperactive season to go retirement-less? What do you think?

[WalterWhite]

I think our streak of good luck might come to an end later this month/early next month. Models are indicating a potential tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico later this month and also possibly one in the Caribbean forming this month. With how warm these two bodies of water are, it is virtually inevitable that any tropical storm passing through this region would intensify into a major hurricane, which would virtually guarantee devastating impacts somewhere (whether Central America, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, or the Lesser Antilles).

Although, with how warm the MDR is and how weak the Bermuda High is, I would genuinely not be surprised if we see Cape Verde recurving hurricanes in October, which should spare these areas from any impacts.

[Teban54]

October is generally the time when lack of ridging turns from a boon to a bane for CONUS and other land masses, because instead of AEWs developing in the MDR and recurving, they wait longer and traverse through the MDR further west before developing in the Caribbean.

2020 is a prime example of this. All the September MDR systems recurved without hitting CONUS, and then there were Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota.

With how much the season isn't acting like an El Nino at all, such a scenario is certainly possible, albeit not at 2020 levels. Not sure if I'd say it's likely at this stage, though.

[CFLHurricane]

I’m thinking Idalia will be retired as it’s significant for the folks in the great bend, even if it isn’t for the rest of us, & Lee will be retired for academic reasons seeing how vigorously it attained Cat 5 status. Additionally, there will be one more retirement this season in form of an October surprise.

[REDHurricane]

I’m thinking Idalia will be retired as it’s significant for the folks in the great bend, even if it isn’t for the rest of us, & Lee will be retired for academic reasons seeing how vigorously it attained Cat 5 status. Additionally, there will be one more retirement this season in form of an October surprise.

My guess is that they either retire both Idalia and Lee or neither one. Replacing Lee would be very easy since only two male L names (Lenny and Luis) have been retired and there are plenty of others to choose from, but obviously the overall lack of significant impacts severely weakens its case for retirement. Idalia (the name) on the other hand would likely be more difficult to retire since there aren't many more (somewhat common) female I names available, but I feel like if Lee gets retired for purely academic/meteorological reasons then they'd have to retire Idalia as well because of its far more destructive impacts.

I'd lean a very slight "yes" on both getting retired as of right now, but whatever ends up happening the rest of this season could certainly change that.

[Xyls]

I’m thinking Idalia will be retired as it’s significant for the folks in the great bend, even if it isn’t for the rest of us, & Lee will be retired for academic reasons seeing how vigorously it attained Cat 5 status. Additionally, there will be one more retirement this season in form of an October surprise.

My guess is that they either retire both Idalia and Lee or neither one. Replacing Lee would be very easy since only two male L names (Lenny and Luis) have been retired and there are plenty of others to choose from, but obviously the overall lack of significant impacts severely weakens its case for retirement. Idalia (the name) on the other hand would likely be more difficult to retire since there aren't many more (somewhat common) female I names available, but I feel like if Lee gets retired for purely academic/meteorological reasons then they'd have to retire Idalia as well because of its far more destructive impacts.

I'd lean a very slight "yes" on both getting retired as of right now, but whatever ends up happening the rest of this season could certainly change that.

??? Since when are hurricane names retired due to "academic reasons", even Patricia (2015) who would be the one example of where this was cited still did a fair amount of damage in Mexico. Lee is neither that unique nor that damaging. I don't think we Canadians will be requesting retirement. I could see Idalia go either way as it is a very borderline case imo.

[WalterWhite]

I’m thinking Idalia will be retired as it’s significant for the folks in the great bend, even if it isn’t for the rest of us, & Lee will be retired for academic reasons seeing how vigorously it attained Cat 5 status. Additionally, there will be one more retirement this season in form of an October surprise.

My guess is that they either retire both Idalia and Lee or neither one. Replacing Lee would be very easy since only two male L names (Lenny and Luis) have been retired and there are plenty of others to choose from, but obviously the overall lack of significant impacts severely weakens its case for retirement. Idalia (the name) on the other hand would likely be more difficult to retire since there aren't many more (somewhat common) female I names available, but I feel like if Lee gets retired for purely academic/meteorological reasons then they'd have to retire Idalia as well because of its far more destructive impacts.

I'd lean a very slight "yes" on both getting retired as of right now, but whatever ends up happening the rest of this season could certainly change that.

??? Since when are hurricane names retired due to "academic reasons", even Patricia (2015) who would be the one example of where this was cited still did a fair amount of damage in Mexico. Lee is neither that unique nor that damaging. I don't think we Canadians will be requesting retirement. I could see Idalia go either way as it is a very borderline case imo.

Sally was not retired despite causing over 3 times as much damage monetary-wise in a similar region of Florida. I doubt Idalia is going anywhere.

[tomatkins]

Well...unless there's an October or November beast...

Tbh I anticipate a mysterious basin shutdown akin to 2021 so I can't say I expect it. But this is only a hunch on my end

2021's shutdown was mainly because of how there was a very powerful Atlantic Nino season-wide that focused warmth toward the equator. This meant that when October rolled around, any waves that could have developed in the Caribbean instead ran over South America and spilled over into the EPAC (which explains why the EPAC was pretty active during that timeframe while the Atlantic was extremely quiet).

As of now, the anomalous warmth is centered over the deep tropics and Western Atlantic (rather than the equatorial Atlantic), which would imho make a 2021-like shutdown rather unlikely. Especially given how this season has been behaving quite un-El Nino-like too, I expect there to be activity in the western part of the basin in October and November. It's probably a good idea to stay vigilant until the very end!

I think more likely than a shutdown is storms just not having a major land impact. The troughiness over the east has prevented any MDR storms from having a signficiant land impact and looks to continue to do so for the next two weeks (any storms that the GFS spins up in the Atlantic pretty much get turned out to sea.)

[Woofde]

My guess is that they either retire both Idalia and Lee or neither one. Replacing Lee would be very easy since only two male L names (Lenny and Luis) have been retired and there are plenty of others to choose from, but obviously the overall lack of significant impacts severely weakens its case for retirement. Idalia (the name) on the other hand would likely be more difficult to retire since there aren't many more (somewhat common) female I names available, but I feel like if Lee gets retired for purely academic/meteorological reasons then they'd have to retire Idalia as well because of its far more destructive impacts.

I'd lean a very slight "yes" on both getting retired as of right now, but whatever ends up happening the rest of this season could certainly change that.

??? Since when are hurricane names retired due to "academic reasons", even Patricia (2015) who would be the one example of where this was cited still did a fair amount of damage in Mexico. Lee is neither that unique nor that damaging. I don't think we Canadians will be requesting retirement. I could see Idalia go either way as it is a very borderline case imo.

Sally was not retired despite causing over 3 times as much damage monetary-wise in a similar region of Florida. I doubt Idalia is going anywhere.

Sally happened in 2020, a year of insanity. I also believe it's worth looking at the scale of impacts vs the total cost. While Idalia might not be extremely costly overall, it was very rough on an individual level. Perry and Steinhatchee were devasted by it. Sally hit a far more populated area and impacted people in a far more mild manner.

[REDHurricane]

??? Since when are hurricane names retired due to "academic reasons", even Patricia (2015) who would be the one example of where this was cited still did a fair amount of damage in Mexico. Lee is neither that unique nor that damaging. I don't think we Canadians will be requesting retirement. I could see Idalia go either way as it is a very borderline case imo.

Fair point -- personally, though, I think they should at least take a look at retiring Lee 2023 primarily to avoid confusion in the future with a possible Lee 2029, where we could have people searching up "Hurricane Lee" and seeing "Massive Category 5 Lee sets near-record for rapid intensification, heading towards Caribbean" when in reality Lee 2029 could end up peaking at 75mph and posing no threat to land. Yeah, Lee's impacts by themselves weren't severe enough to warrant retirement, but I feel like there's so many extra male "L" names available that the name Lee could be very easily replaced without causing any major problems.