2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top) Dora / Otis retired

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Will Any Storm Be Retired After the 2023 Season?

Poll ended at Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:40 pm

Yes
31
72%
No
12
28%
 
Total votes: 43

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Teban54
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement

#161 Postby Teban54 » Fri Mar 15, 2024 5:50 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Not sure if that's a joke, but Isis was actually used on the EPAC naming lists before. It was taken out before the start of the 2016 season when it was supposed to be used again, for obvious reasons. It didn't even go through the proper retirement procedure (i.e. not retired due to heavy damage, and not decided after the season when it was previously used).


The EPAC has a history of retiring names that were just plain bad. Two other examples are Adolph and Knut (replaced with Alvin and Kenneth respectively). Honestly I have no clue who thought that it would be a good idea to have those original names on the EPAC naming list lol

Adolph was retired in 2001, which interestingly enough also had Israel on the same list, but Israel ended up getting replaced with Ivo before it was ever used.

Apparently, the name Adolph caught public attention in 2001 after it already formed and intensified. There was enough public outroar in the Jewish community -- both due to Adolph and the fact that Israel is on the very same naming list -- that convinced WMO to change Israel to Ivo in the middle of the season, after Adolph was named but before Israel could be used, despite NHC's initial pushback and an infamous quote that "there are a lot of good people with the name Adolph, too".

As for why people didn't catch it before 2001 (including 1995, when Adolph became a Cat 4), nobody knows. Note that Israel joined the naming list for the first time in 2001, replacing Ismael which was retired in 1995. However, this news would have come out as early as 1996.

There's a retroactive news story here.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement

#162 Postby DioBrando » Fri Mar 15, 2024 6:18 pm

Teban54 wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
The EPAC has a history of retiring names that were just plain bad. Two other examples are Adolph and Knut (replaced with Alvin and Kenneth respectively). Honestly I have no clue who thought that it would be a good idea to have those original names on the EPAC naming list lol

Adolph was retired in 2001, which interestingly enough also had Israel on the same list, but Israel ended up getting replaced with Ivo before it was ever used.

Apparently, the name Adolph caught public attention in 2001 after it already formed and intensified. There was enough public outroar in the Jewish community -- both due to Adolph and the fact that Israel is on the very same naming list -- that convinced WMO to change Israel to Ivo in the middle of the season, after Adolph was named but before Israel could be used, despite NHC's initial pushback and an infamous quote that "there are a lot of good people with the name Adolph, too".

As for why people didn't catch it before 2001 (including 1995, when Adolph became a Cat 4), nobody knows. Note that Israel joined the naming list for the first time in 2001, replacing Ismael which was retired in 1995. However, this news would have come out as early as 1996.

There's a retroactive news story here.


Mayfield defended the choice of “Israel” as “a good Spanish name.” He also argued that Adolph is “not the German spelling, and there are a lot of good people with the name Adolph, too.”

Mayfield has a point
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#163 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:26 am

It looks like the documents are no longer in editing mode but the request for Franklin by the Dominican Republic is still there. I'm beginning to think there's a non-zero chance that it was a legitimate request but it sounds rushed more than anything. Giving credence to this is that the meeting starts on Monday (tomorrow).
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#164 Postby ljmac75 » Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:24 pm

Antigua and Barbuda have uploaded their report to the WMO database. No retirement requests in it. Still waiting on the USA, although I don't think they present until Tuesday. Also they added a little slideshow on Atlantic TCs and climate change to the scientific lectures folder.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#165 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 1:02 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Antigua and Barbuda have uploaded their report to the WMO database. No retirement requests in it. Still waiting on the USA, although I don't think they present until Tuesday. Also they added a little slideshow on Atlantic TCs and climate change to the scientific lectures folder.

THE USA IS OUT!
They've requested Dora to be retired
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#166 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 1:05 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:It looks like the documents are no longer in editing mode but the request for Franklin by the Dominican Republic is still there. I'm beginning to think there's a non-zero chance that it was a legitimate request but it sounds rushed more than anything. Giving credence to this is that the meeting starts on Monday (tomorrow).

The USA asked to retire Dora
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#167 Postby Buck » Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:29 pm

Just Dora? No Idalia then?
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#168 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:34 pm

Buck wrote:Just Dora? No Idalia then?

Looks like Idalia escaped but we don't know until the Word doc comes out :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#169 Postby Teban54 » Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:58 pm

Buck wrote:Just Dora? No Idalia then?

I could be eating crow in a few days, but there are a few oddities with the US reports that I observed.

Firstly, the US only submitted a PowerPoint presentation, without a Word document that other countries have. I assume the full Word report is still being prepared or at least not yet uploaded.

While the Dora slide mentioned requests for retirement and the Idalia slides did not, I also felt that the slides for Atlantic storms and Pacific storms were written in different linguistic styles, possibly by different individuals. In particular, the Atlantic slides were much more quantitative and sparse, while the Pacific slides were more descriptive. They even seem to use different fonts and/or font sizes. I've attached the Dora slide and the first of the three Idalia slides below, but the same also applies to Hilary vs. Lee and Ophelia.

So it won't surprise me if the full report does include requests to retire Idalia, but it was simply omitted from the PPT. On the other hand, I will also not be surprised if the US doesn't request Idalia to be retired. (Note that while the Hawaiian wildfires caused $5.5 billion damage in comparison to Idalia's $3.6 billion, the former's connection to Dora is a lot more questionable.)
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#170 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:00 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Buck wrote:Just Dora? No Idalia then?

I could be eating crow in a few days, but there are a few oddities with the US reports that I observed.

Firstly, the US only submitted a PowerPoint presentation, without a Word document that other countries have. I assume the full Word report is still being prepared or at least not yet uploaded.

While the Dora slide mentioned requests for retirement and the Idalia slides did not, I also felt that the slides for Atlantic storms and Pacific storms were written in different linguistic styles, possibly by different individuals. In particular, the Atlantic slides were much more quantitative and sparse, while the Pacific slides were more descriptive. They even seem to use different fonts and font sizes. I've attached the Dora slide and the first of the three Idalia slides below, but the same also applies to Hilary vs. Lee and Ophelia.

So it won't surprise me if the full report does include requests to retire Idalia, but it was simply omitted from the PPT. On the other hand, I will also not be surprised if the US doesn't request Idalia to be retired. (Note that while the Hawaiian wildfires caused $5.5 billion damage in comparison to Idalia's $3.6 billion, the former's connection to Dora is a lot more questionable.)
https://i.postimg.cc/9MX4qWb5/image.png
https://i.postimg.cc/wj03YKHw/image.png

"pacific ocean" part on Dora
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#171 Postby Teban54 » Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:11 pm

Also, while unrelated to retirement, I found this slide from Mexico's presentation interesting:

During the 7-day period of October 19-25, 2023, 8 tropical cyclones made landfalls around the world, affecting every one of the Northern Hemisphere basins as well as Southern Pacific. This sequence of storms ultimately culminated in the Category 5 landfall of Otis.

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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#172 Postby Torino » Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:29 pm

Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#173 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:11 pm

Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Could Franklin be rejected
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#174 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:25 pm

Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Wasn't Hazel retired in the EPAC after 1965? Also, given Hawaii's history with requesting names to be retired, I wouldn't be surprised if Dora's retirement from the EPAC is rejected.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#175 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:27 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Could Franklin be rejected

Franklin probably won't be rejected, given that 1.7 million people (or households, depending on your source) lost potable water in the Dominican Republic due to Franklin and it wiped out all access to 24 communities. That's not something to be overlooked.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#176 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:31 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Could Franklin be rejected

Franklin probably won't be rejected, given that 1.7 million people (or households, depending on your source) lost potable water in the Dominican Republic due to Franklin and it wiped out all access to 24 communities. That's not something to be overlooked.

Imagine if Franklin gets retired and Idalia stays :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#177 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:31 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Wasn't Hazel retired in the EPAC after 1965? Also, given Hawaii's history with requesting names to be retired, I wouldn't be surprised if Dora's retirement from the EPAC is rejected.


Did NHC or CPHC ask Dora to be retired?
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#178 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:54 pm

DioBrando wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:Could Franklin be rejected

Franklin probably won't be rejected, given that 1.7 million people (or households, depending on your source) lost potable water in the Dominican Republic due to Franklin and it wiped out all access to 24 communities. That's not something to be overlooked.

Imagine if Franklin gets retired and Idalia stays :eek: :eek: :eek:

I mean to be fair, damage figures alone don't always reflect how bad a storm is and $3.5 billion is not a lot of money for Florida in 2023 as far as hurricane damage goes.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#179 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:55 pm

DioBrando wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:
Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Wasn't Hazel retired in the EPAC after 1965? Also, given Hawaii's history with requesting names to be retired, I wouldn't be surprised if Dora's retirement from the EPAC is rejected.


Did NHC or CPHC ask Dora to be retired?

I'm not sure what it says but I'm willing to bet the CPHC is asking the NHC to do it.
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Re: 2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top)

#180 Postby Teban54 » Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:27 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
Torino wrote:Dora might be the first name to be retired from both basins

Wasn't Hazel retired in the EPAC after 1965? Also, given Hawaii's history with requesting names to be retired, I wouldn't be surprised if Dora's retirement from the EPAC is rejected.

While Hazel was indeed retired in the Atlantic in 1954 and EPAC in 1965, there's a more interesting story behind that.

Carol, Edna and Hazel were among the first batch of retired storms in the Atlantic in 1954. At that time, the plan was to retire names for only 10 years, after which they would be available for use again. (Imagine if Katrina was reused in 2015.) Because of this, Carol was again used in the 1965 Atlantic season, but that decision angered the research community which was still writing papers on the 1954 storms. Thus, Carol and all other retired names were permanently retired in the spring of 1969, despite Carol 1965 doing no damage. Likewise, Edna was reused in the Atlantic in 1968, but also (theoretically) retired permanently in 1969.

As for Hazel, it entered the Pacific naming list in the 1963 season, then again in the 1965 season. (From 1960 to 1965, EPAC used four A-W wrap-around naming lists like WPAC does today, but for some reason 1965 returned to the same set of names as 1963 after reaching W.) Hazel 1965 did impact Mexico after peaking as a tropical storm, but with 6 casualties and $10 million in damage, it's hard to say whether it was worthy of retirement for its impacts. I'm also not sure if Mexico officially requested its retirement in 1966, like standard practice now. (The only source that Wikipedia cited only said "HAZEL was removed after its 1965 usage and replaced with HEATHER in the list for 1969.")

In fact, many other EPAC storms in the 1960s made landfall as hurricanes (Diana 1960, Iva and Tara 1961, Valerie and Doreen 1962, Emily and Mona 1963, Adele 1966, Katrina and Olivia 1967, Naomi and Pauline 1968, and Jennifer 1969). Of these, Tara 1961 caused 436 fatalities and $16 million damage, both surpassing Hazel 1965; Olivia 1967 made a Cat 3 landfall on Baja California that killed at least 61; Naomi 1968 also out-damaged Hazel at $16 million. Yet, none were retired, and the first two are coincidentally on the EPAC naming list today.

The fact that Hazel was retired while more damaging EPAC storms were not, combined with the coincidence of time for both Carol 1965 and Hazel 1965, raise a question: Was Hazel 1965 retired for its own damage, or solely due to the switch from 10-year retirements to permanent retirements?

One relevant fact: in the 1960s and 70s, Atlantic names (even retired ones) frequently entered Pacific naming lists. For the original 4 EPAC naming lists (1960-1977, female only), examples include:
  • Connie: Retired in ATL in 1955, on EPAC naming lists in 1966, 1970, 1974
  • Florence: On ATL naming lists in 1953, 1954, 1960, 1964, on EPAC naming lists in 1963, 1965, 1969, 1973, 1977
  • Ione: Retired in ATL in 1955, on EPAC naming lists in 1966, 1970, 1974
(The name Florence is particularly interesting. 1960 was when both Atlantic and EPAC created 4 sets of naming lists each, and somehow Florence is on both of them! This is before considering that Florence was also on the very first Atlantic naming list in 1953, and later on the set of 6 modern naming lists since 1979, before finally being retired in 2018 for good.)

The above are all names that EPAC took on in 1960, despite knowing that they were either retired in the Atlantic before, or also put on the Atlantic naming lists in the same year. Even when the 6 modern naming lists (male and female) started in the EPAC in 1978*, retired Atlantic names still made their way to EPAC:
  • Celia: Retired in ATL in 1970, first on EPAC list in 1980, now List 2 to be used in 2028
  • Dora: Retired in ATL in 1964, first on EPAC list in 1981, now List 3 and used in 2023
  • Hilda: Retired in ATL in 1964, first on EPAC list in 1979, now List 1 to be used in 2027
* Technically, this is inaccurate: EPAC only had 4 male/female lists in 1978, but when the next rotation started in 1982, two more sets were added to match Atlantic's frequency of 6 naming lists.

These factors seem to suggest there's a lack of coordination between the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists at that time, which in turn suggests Hazel's retirement after 1965 was likely due to its own damage in the EPAC, and not because of Hazel 1954 in the Atlantic... But really?

Turns out, even coordination within the Atlantic was also messy. In 1971, the newly established NOAA created 10 new rotating naming lists in the Atlantic starting that year, though the last two (1979-80) were never used. Remember when I said Edna was "theoretically" retired permanently in 1969? Guess what -- just 2 years later, it came back on one of these naming lists, scheduled to appear in 1972. Fortunately, the 1972 season was very inactive and stopped at D, so Edna was never used again. But this illustrates the messy state of hurricane naming and lack of care during that era: not only across the two basins that are both under NHC today, but also across different agencies over time in the same basin. (NHC was founded in 1965, and I could not find information on who was responsible for naming storms in either basin from 1953 to 1970.)

Ultimately, the real cause of Hazel 1965's retirement in the EPAC remains unclear. If you believe that Atlantic names contributed little to the Pacific naming lists, as seen from EPAC's repeated inclusion of retired or concurrent Atlantic names in 1960 and 1978 (and the Atlantic itself in 1971), then Hazel 1965 would have been retired for the Pacific storm, making its status as the only name retired due to Atlantic and Pacific storms well-deserved. On the other hand, there's a real argument for claiming Hazel was only retired because of the 1954 Atlantic storm, especially if you think whoever was handling the Atlantic naming lists in 1969 also made sure to check the Pacific list in the same year. In that case, Hazel would have an even more unique honor of being the only Pacific name to be retired because of an Atlantic storm.

(I will note that EPAC retirements have been strange even since the beginning, before the modern naming lists. Adele 1970 was retired despite being an OTS storm, though it might possibly be because Adele 1966 hit land.)

Much of the information comes from this, this, and Wikipedia.
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