2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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wxman57
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#121 Postby wxman57 » Sun May 28, 2023 6:49 pm

GFS, EC, and ICON all have very strong westerly wind shear across the Gulf next week. Significant development isn't likely. Strong shear won't prevent the development of an exposed LLC, though.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#122 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 28, 2023 8:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS, EC, and ICON all have very strong westerly wind shear across the Gulf next week. Significant development isn't likely. Strong shear won't prevent the development of an exposed LLC, though.


We surely not looking for a hurricane in earlyJune just rain potential which is there 3-5 inches across FL peninsula.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#123 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon May 29, 2023 6:14 am

GFS, ECMWF and CMC do show signs of a disturbance forming up off the coast of Florida in the medium term. These are the Okubo-Weiss model run form all three, Okubo-Weiss is a model use to model eddies in liquids and as the atmosphere is a liquid it applies well to detect eddies and rotations in the atmosphere such as cyclones. The models do show something happening but at this stage I would say keep a eye on it that's all.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#124 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon May 29, 2023 9:41 am

The Experimental GFDL SHiELD seems to want a small (S)TC near the Azores.
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There are also a few GFS and CMC ensemble members favoring something near/in the Caribbean in around 5 days.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#125 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 30, 2023 7:53 am

There's a chance a sheared TS could develop north of the Bahamas within 7 days. NHC's 7-day outlook isn't mentioning anything. No significant U.S. threat, just a little rain for Florida this weekend as it passes across.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#126 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2023 8:24 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#127 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2023 9:25 am

The TAFB brief analysis of that GOM area.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1663533764004446210


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#128 Postby Teban54 » Tue May 30, 2023 1:33 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#129 Postby REDHurricane » Wed May 31, 2023 4:29 am

06z NAM looking pretty interesting...

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#130 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed May 31, 2023 4:38 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#131 Postby REDHurricane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:24 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:

Of course, since it's a NAM forecast to a sea storm... :roll:


Looks like the NAM actually ended up being spot-on for this one lol :layout:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#132 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:18 am

Image

:lol: :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#133 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:36 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/puckAO0.png

:lol: :lol:


lol Funny South American vort Bias finally peaks it's head
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#134 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:05 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#135 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Jun 04, 2023 12:11 pm

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:spam:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#136 Postby Zonacane » Sun Jun 04, 2023 6:34 pm

Just GOOFUS things
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#137 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 04, 2023 7:40 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#138 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:21 pm

Seems like there's some sort of Central American Gyre that gets going down near Central America several weeks from now? Leading the GFS to generate that Atlantic storm then?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#139 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Seems like there's some sort of Central American Gyre that gets going down near Central America several weeks from now? Leading the GFS to generate that Atlantic storm then?


I was wondering when the GFS would start doing this. It's a little late this season. I'm not concerned yet. Give it another 10 days and we'll see if there is any reason to suspect development.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#140 Postby jfk08c » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:04 am

The GFS spitting out a storm in fantasy land is nothing new but I have to admit, the run to run consistency of development makes me think there's something there to keep an eye on. Normally it would make it a couple runs and then drop off but this has been a multi day trend. Time will tell
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