2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#201 Postby ncskywarn » Fri Jun 09, 2023 4:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Both the Canadian & European models have a strong ridge to the north at day 10, shoving the vorticity into the East Pac. GFS remains the outlier, but its trof across the central Gulf is weakening with each run, trending more like the EC and CMC. I'm still thinking this may become the first East Pac storm of the season.


I understand what you're saying. With that being said I wouldn't count it out just yet. Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Caribbean/Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. I got to admit it’s done a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. (It did well predicting the wpac genesis and strength on the super typhoon last week well in advance.) Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño.
Last edited by ncskywarn on Fri Jun 09, 2023 5:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#202 Postby MetroMike » Fri Jun 09, 2023 4:47 pm

Guess we will wait it out if this GFS trend continues and the NHC gives us a lemon in next several days since genesis is within 10 day period no longer fantasy range.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 09, 2023 5:12 pm

ncskywarn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Both the Canadian & European models have a strong ridge to the north at day 10, shoving the vorticity into the East Pac. GFS remains the outlier, but its trof across the central Gulf is weakening with each run, trending more like the EC and CMC. I'm still thinking this may become the first East Pac storm of the season.


I understand what you're saying. With that being said I wouldn't count it out just yet. Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. I got to admit it’s a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño. It's also done well predicting the wpac activity so far this season. It picked up genesis and strength on the super typhoon last week well in advance.


GFS tends to fare far better with TCG when MJO is very active as was the case with Ilsa, Mocha, and Mawar. We don't have MJO forcing forcing for this, although we will have CCKW support in about 10 days, so I'd prefer to not make this comparison. It’s not like they’ve been upgraded recently either.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#204 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:59 pm

We go through this every season around this time with the GFS. The fact it is showing an EPAC system also in recent runs is a big clue the Caribbean GFS cane is a phantom not to mention zero support from the other models. I do think we will see our first EPAC system though.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#205 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:03 pm

OK now, all three models are showing the start of an epic system in 10. GfS by far the strongest. GFS now in the ten day range and showing the epac and a west carib system. Windshield wipers are back on for the west Carib system now back at Naples which was one of the first targets a few days ago.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#206 Postby hurricane2025 » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:15 pm

Gfs does this every year, 99 percent chance it’s wrong and it’s prob epac system, don’t get Yalls hopes up
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#207 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 10, 2023 7:55 am

GFS remains the extreme outlier as far as any west-Caribbean development. CMC and EC are on-board with vorticity tracking west into the East Pac, where development occurs. Deep 200mb trof at day 10 has returned on the 00Z GFS. Completely different flow in other models. Careful believing the GFS.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#208 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:10 am

wxman57 wrote:GFS remains the extreme outlier as far as any west-Caribbean development. CMC and EC are on-board with vorticity tracking west into the East Pac, where development occurs. Deep 200mb trof at day 10 has returned on the 00Z GFS. Completely different flow in other models. Careful believing the GFS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJune10b.JPG



So for the layman the trof is the outlier?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#209 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:08 am

BobHarlem wrote:
MetroMike wrote:No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?


With the Euro and CMC both showing nada (except maybe in the EPAC), not really.

The CMC is a joke, and the Euro only has a TC forming when it's already been named for a solid 24 hours.
Let's just wait and see.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#210 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:21 am

I also have to wonder, because haven't there been times in the past where Central American Gyres spawned a storm in the EPAC as well as a storm in the Atlantic? Sometimes it's only the Atlantic, sometimes it's only the EPAC, but I would have to think that there were times when both basins were favored? I do agree that CAGs are generally not easy to resolve (especially mid to long range), as mild differences in troughiness/ridging could mean the difference between an EPAC system vs an Atlantic system.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#211 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:35 am

This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#212 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:49 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif


Oh wow, very interesting. Yeah I agree, maybe that might be something worth looking at further in detail down the road (if anything that's probably a much more plausible TCG mechanism). Maybe we have a "guy looking at red shirted girl while his blue shirted girlfriend is upset" moment here. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#213 Postby GCANE » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:59 am

GFS now has a warm core initializing in the W Carib, 168hrs out
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#214 Postby GCANE » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:08 am

355K PV Forecast looks very conducive for development once it gets in the GoM.
Getting close to the 144 hr threshold where it becomes relevant.
May have something here..
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#215 Postby LarryWx » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:43 am

GCANE wrote:GFS now has a warm core initializing in the W Carib, 168hrs out


21 GFS runs in a row though still a few days from record for a fake
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#216 Postby USTropics » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:51 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif


The GFS actually isn't developing this from a spurious vorticity associated with the CAG, it's origins are related to a TW that is expected to depart the coast of Africa here shortly. You can follow this in the 700mb vort signature from the latest GFS run below (roughly highlighted the wave axis in pink in the animation below):

Image

The difference in the models is the upper-level features and steering pattern. The GFS has a sharp trough that extends all the way down towards the Yucatan peninsula (highlighted in pink below). This has multiple impacts: (1) displaces the subtropical high towards the northeast (highlighted in orange), (2) erodes the western periphery of the high pressure area, (3) reduces zonal flow in the Caribbean, and (4) provides the necessary "lift" for this tropical wave to exit the Caribbean towards the GOM.

Image

Compare this to last night's 00z ECMWF run at the same time frame, and you can see the high pressure is oriented more E to W and extends further west, there is only a weak signature of a trough over CONUS that doesnt extend nearly as far south, and the zonal flow in the Caribbean carries the wave vort signature through Central America and into the EPAC.
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#217 Postby Nuno » Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:11 pm

We are approaching the window to where this thing might happen. We don't need disclaimers about the details, we know how it goes, but the time frame isn't particularly being pushed back like a typical phantom. As USTropics pointed out, we are assuming CAG formation when this is from a TW. GFS issues with CAG formation are associated with where cyclogenesis occurs, but that isn't particularly an issue here.

It isn't a "phantom". There is a wave, there's just lots of factors to watch this far out as we all know :)
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#218 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:18 pm

USTropics wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif


The GFS actually isn't developing this from a spurious vorticity associated with the CAG, it's origins are related to a TW that is expected to depart the coast of Africa here shortly. You can follow this in the 700mb vort signature from the latest GFS run below (roughly highlighted the wave axis in pink in the animation below):

https://i.ibb.co/wd8WNhc/gifmaker-me.gif

The difference in the models is the upper-level features and steering pattern. The GFS has a sharp trough that extends all the way down towards the Yucatan peninsula (highlighted in pink below). This has multiple impacts: (1) displaces the subtropical high towards the northeast (highlighted in orange), (2) erodes the western periphery of the high pressure area, (3) reduces zonal flow in the Caribbean, and (4) provides the necessary "lift" for this tropical wave to exit the Caribbean towards the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/OdkCd1I.png

Compare this to last night's 00z ECMWF run at the same time frame, and you can see the high pressure is oriented more E to W and extends further west, there is only a weak signature of a trough over CONUS that doesnt extend nearly as far south, and the zonal flow in the Caribbean carries the wave vort signature through Central America and into the EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/KzJfZYL.png


The culprit. That is a great analysis my friend.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#219 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:02 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
MetroMike wrote:No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?


With the Euro and CMC both showing nada (except maybe in the EPAC), not really.

The CMC is a joke, and the Euro only has a TC forming when it's already been named for a solid 24 hours.
Let's just wait and see.


If there were even one euro ensemble anywhere close to the gfs I'd agree, but there is not, I'm thinking the gfs will shift west into the epac, the 12z gfs today is going that direction already.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#220 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:03 pm

The Euro tends to have stronger ridging than the GFS this far out. Still think the GFS will be wrong but you never know.
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