2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:34 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#22 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:17 pm

Image
:?:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#23 Postby zzzh » Tue Apr 04, 2023 11:35 am

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:lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2023 12:51 pm

Already the ghosts around?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#25 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Already the ghosts around?



They're starting early this year! :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#26 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Apr 04, 2023 2:45 pm

woops
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#27 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Apr 04, 2023 2:46 pm

Obviously I give this close to a 0% chance of happening but models are indicating some frontal energy lingering around in that area and the Gulf Stream and surrounding waters are warmer than usual for this time of the year. It also isn't THAT far out at least it isn't a 300+ hour fantasy storm. Let's see if it stays for later runs. You never know what might spinup lol


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#28 Postby Teban54 » Tue Apr 04, 2023 4:31 pm

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#29 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:02 pm

Teban54 wrote:At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named :lol:


You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be :lol: ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#30 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Apr 05, 2023 3:05 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named :lol:


You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be :lol: ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.

Maybe it'll be like 1997, where we had 4 storms before August, but then it was just... dead.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#31 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:17 pm

Come again? :double: :lol:

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#32 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:Come again? :double: :lol:

https://i.postimg.cc/MHpLXzkn/gfs.png



Happy hour came a little early today. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:22 pm

That forms from the big trough that is right now in the NE Caribbean / north of Greater Antilles?

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#34 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:23 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Come again? :double: :lol:

https://i.postimg.cc/MHpLXzkn/gfs.png



Happy hour came a little early today. :lol:


Except its also on the cmc and last nights 00z ecmwf to some extent lol. Maybe some messy sts low develops
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#35 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:35 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#36 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:42 pm

April Arlene?

What is this, 2023 trying to be 2017? LMAO :spam:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#37 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:58 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named :lol:


You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be :lol: ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.


Actually, El Niño seasons on average have been a bit more active than others early. But when I say early, I mean May-June, not April lol.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 05, 2023 1:13 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named :lol:


You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be :lol: ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.


Actually, El Niño seasons on average have been a bit more active than others early. But when I say early, I mean May-June, not April lol.


And in early April.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#39 Postby crownweather » Wed Apr 05, 2023 1:41 pm

Even though I think that the chances for tropical development are EXTREMELY low for now, I'm also not totally discounting it.

The pattern looks actually kind of supportive for development. This includes the possibility of an old front over the Bahamas and a big high pressure system over the NE US. Definitely raises a half of a eyebrow.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#40 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:30 pm

Image

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