2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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LarryWx
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#141 Postby LarryWx » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:10 am

jfk08c wrote:The GFS spitting out a storm in fantasy land is nothing new but I have to admit, the run to run consistency of development makes me think there's something there to keep an eye on. Normally it would make it a couple runs and then drop off but this has been a multi day trend. Time will tell


We'll see as nobody can possibly know what will happen that far out in forecast time. El Ninos are often active in the Gulf and nearby early in the season. But don't be fooled by the repeated runs of the GFS showing a TC in that area. I can remember multiple instances of the GFS over recent years going as long as a week+ having run after run after run of a strong TC and then it pretty suddenly dropping it afterward with it never reappearing as if to say "psyche!", especially when the GFS was the only model with it. One key will be to see if other models start to pick up in it.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#142 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:51 am

Let’s face it the GFS is notorious for early GOM phantom systems in June.
360 should always be seen as a fantasy.
But darn, it has been persistent for the past eight plus runs.
Latest has a Naples Tallahassee double strike.
Thought at least we would have heard from Florida wishcasters by now though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0606&fh=12
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#143 Postby Cat5James » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:10 am

OuterBanker wrote:Let’s face it the GFS is notorious for early GOM phantom systems in June.
360 should always be seen as a fantasy.
But darn, it has been persistent for the past eight plus runs.
Latest has a Naples Tallahassee double strike.
Thought at least we would have heard from Florida wishcasters by now though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0606&fh=12

Typically the fantasy GFS CAG storms start in May. I'm also skeptical until we get into the 10 day range (and another model picks up on the signal), but it sure has been consistent
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#144 Postby LarryWx » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:56 am

OuterBanker wrote:Let’s face it the GFS is notorious for early GOM phantom systems in June.
360 should always be seen as a fantasy.
But darn, it has been persistent for the past eight plus runs.
Latest has a Naples Tallahassee double strike.
Thought at least we would have heard from Florida wishcasters by now though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0606&fh=12


I recall it going 20-25+ runs in a row with a strong TC in the western basin on several different occasions that turned out to be a phantom. So, I'm always wary, especially out in model fantasyland, at least until other models also have it.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#145 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:13 pm

LarryWx wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Let’s face it the GFS is notorious for early GOM phantom systems in June.
360 should always be seen as a fantasy.
But darn, it has been persistent for the past eight plus runs.
Latest has a Naples Tallahassee double strike.
Thought at least we would have heard from Florida wishcasters by now though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0606&fh=12


I recall it going 20-25+ runs in a row with a strong TC in the western basin on several different occasions that turned out to be a phantom. So, I'm always wary, especially out in model fantasyland, at least until other models also have it.


The best timeframe to watch the models is 5 days or less but going up to 10 days is not too bad if the models begin a consensus there.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#146 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:31 pm

Here is a study published by Jeff Masters in 2022 on a Yale study of model accuracy.

Track model. GFS
Intensity HMON
Genesis Euro

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... rformance/
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#147 Postby USTropics » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:00 pm

It's all about long range signals for now, but interesting that the ensembles for the GFS and CMC are highlighting the Caribbean in about 2 weeks from now:

GFS ensembles
Image

CMC ensembles
Image

Climatology favors this area in June, and while on average only 1 storm forms during the month of June (and we've already had Arlene), typically the first system forms on June 20th in the Caribbean/GOM, so definitely an area to watch as we get within the 10 day timeframe:
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#148 Postby Teban54 » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:45 pm

USTropics wrote:It's all about long range signals for now, but interesting that the ensembles for the GFS and CMC are highlighting the Caribbean in about 2 weeks from now:

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/bDGcDt3.png

CMC ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/53eULxR.png

Climatology favors this area in June, and while on average only 1 storm forms during the month of June (and we've already had Arlene), typically the first system forms on June 20th in the Caribbean/GOM, so definitely an area to watch as we get within the 10 day timeframe:
https://i.imgur.com/KtDrWtR.png

Bonnie 2022 really stands out :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#149 Postby Jr0d » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:16 pm

GFS once again in fantasy land with a carib 'cane in the Yucatan pass...

Maybe in August/Sept/Oct it verifies...right now its a trash run.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#150 Postby jfk08c » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:18 pm

Jr0d wrote:GFS once again in fantasy land with a carib 'cane in the Yucatan pass...

Maybe in August/Sept/Oct it verifies...right now its a trash run.


Climatology suggests that if a storm forms in June, that's right where it would be.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#151 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:05 pm

jfk08c wrote:
Jr0d wrote:GFS once again in fantasy land with a carib 'cane in the Yucatan pass...

Maybe in August/Sept/Oct it verifies...right now its a trash run.


Climatology suggests that if a storm forms in June, that's right where it would be.


However, the GFS has forecast 73 of the last 5 storms to form there
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#152 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:10 pm

It's been persistent, but the GFS' known bias towards this region this time of year + the fact that it's in the long range (for now) needs to be taken into account. I'd wait until the weekend to see whether or not it continues to show up, as well as gain support from other models to ensure it's not just the GFS' typical early season shenanigans (especially if the origins are from that little stream of vorticity off Venezuela the GFS often likes to erroneously spin up into TCs)

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#153 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:32 pm

No chomping until life (or I guess nhc) gives you lemons.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#154 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:32 pm

Wow, 18z GFS now a cat 3 into Northern Mx. 0z Bahamas, 6z Naples, 12 z NOLA. I guess tomorrow it will be Naples Italy.
If nothing else at least 360 gfs is entertaining :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#155 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:31 pm

Something to note about the GFS: I think it's very tempting (and rightfully so) to believe that this upcoming storm is a ghost storm. I really wouldn't be surprised if that happens. However, there are a few points I am keeping in the very back of my head.

1. Unlike last May's persistent phantom, it is June. June has had its share of strong hurricanes pretty rarely but not unheard of. Take 1957, 1966, and 2010 for example.

2. The storm seems to gain its roots near Central America, and we all know that climo-speaking, mid to late Jane sees storms commonly form in that region.

3. In a Nino year, early season activity isn't that far-fetched (1957's Audrey was a June storm, for example). Adding to the uncertainty of how this particular early season might behave is the wicked Atlantic warmth. Will it have an impact on storm behavior at this time of the year or not? Only time will tell.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#156 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:54 am

Looking at 250mb GFS forecast, it appears the CONUS Omega Block will rearrange to have a UL Low over northern Baja and the other UL Low over UP of MI.
This may be due n part to the developing El Nino.
With this arrangement, there appears that an Anti-Cyclonic Rossby Wave Break may form in the GoM.
This coupled with the extreme hot water in the GoM makes development of a strong TC in the GoM in June not out of the question IMHO.

Arlene strengthened more than I expected despite being in a hostile environment. Shear was high and a large UL vort was overhead.
It appeared to me, Arlene strengthened from strong WISHE of the high water temps.
This will continue to be the case for anything that may form in the future.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#157 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:06 am

The 6Z GEFS is the least active GEFS in quite awhile with only one strong TC out of 31 members as of 0Z on 6/20 (hour 306) even though the 6Z GFS then has a H in the SE GOM. The 0Z EPS like the prior ones has nothing from 51 members.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#158 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:15 am

Yes, the GFS does this every May/June. The key will be consensus with other models. Comparing the 10-day GFS with the EC & CMC, there is no consensus. GFS is all alone in showing anything at all in the western Caribbean next Friday. Since I forecast TCs worldwide, I see this in every basin. If it's only the GFS forecasting something, it should be ignored. The GFS also tends to go very strong with every storm. Let's see what things look like by this weekend or early next week. The time period will then be well within 10 days. Do the EC, CMC, and ICON see anything?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#159 Postby Cat5James » Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:24 am

wxman57 wrote:Yes, the GFS does this every May/June. The key will be consensus with other models. Comparing the 10-day GFS with the EC & CMC, there is no consensus. GFS is all alone in showing anything at all in the western Caribbean next Friday. Since I forecast TCs worldwide, I see this in every basin. If it's only the GFS forecasting something, it should be ignored. The GFS also tends to go very strong with every storm. Let's see what things look like by this weekend or early next week. The time period will then be well within 10 days. Do the EC, CMC, and ICON see anything?

GEPS Ensembles are seeing something.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#160 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Jun 07, 2023 9:53 am

Image
GFS now forecasts TCG at TAU 252 in the WCAR.
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