2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Zonacane
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#81 Postby Zonacane » Fri May 05, 2023 2:13 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing :lol:
https://i.ibb.co/Y03KRG9/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh294-384.gif

That looks like a normal early-season CAG to me.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#82 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 10, 2023 10:59 am

Still no phantom storms in the 16-day GFS run overnight. Good. Hope it stays quiet until late August or September.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#83 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 10, 2023 11:34 am

wxman57 wrote:Still no phantom storms in the 16-day GFS run overnight. Good. Hope it stays quiet until late August or September.


Shhh...don't jinx it...the next thing you know a Hurricane Audrey 2.0 happens :P
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#84 Postby zzzh » Wed May 10, 2023 1:50 pm

Image
Well, it's CAG season again
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#85 Postby AnnularCane » Wed May 10, 2023 2:35 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/xyBUDBa.png
Well, it's CAG season again



I'm blaming wxman57 for this. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#86 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu May 11, 2023 6:25 am

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/xyBUDBa.png
Well, it's CAG season again


Well the GFS is also showing a faint trace of it near the Keys but it looks like shear and conditions won't be good.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#87 Postby Gums » Sat May 13, 2023 5:15 pm

Salute!

West Gulf, especially down near the Rio has been getting strong storms more typical of April.

I thot the developing Nino would cut off a lot of vertical development and help we coasties with the later storms due to wind shear.

Gums watches....
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#88 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun May 14, 2023 7:34 am

The BOC is interesting this morning and not looking at anything deep other than sat. imagery but the shear doesn't look so bad.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#89 Postby gib » Sun May 14, 2023 8:08 pm

In post 74, DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
In post 73, Kingarabian wrote:Twin IO systems on the models.

Spawned by a WWB there. GFS/GEFS in particular has it very potent.
https://i.ibb.co/TY9NWZd/gfs-0-N-hov-uanom-2023050118-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/qm6GyM9/gefs-0-N-hov-uanom-2023050118.png
https://i.ibb.co/SwTXDtg/gfs-mslp-uv850-io-fh96-216-1.gif

The models pretty much nailed this. It's been remarkable seeing the predicted future come to life in Mocha and Fabien.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#90 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 14, 2023 9:27 pm

gib wrote:
In post 74, DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
In post 73, Kingarabian wrote:Twin IO systems on the models.

Spawned by a WWB there. GFS/GEFS in particular has it very potent.
https://i.ibb.co/TY9NWZd/gfs-0-N-hov-uanom-2023050118-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/qm6GyM9/gefs-0-N-hov-uanom-2023050118.png
https://i.ibb.co/SwTXDtg/gfs-mslp-uv850-io-fh96-216-1.gif

The models pretty much nailed this. It's been remarkable seeing the predicted future come to life in Mocha and Fabien.


Not as likely in the Atlantic because South America is in the way, but anytime it's in season and there's a legitimate equatorial WWB in the IO and entire Pacific basins, TCG chances will be very high on either side of the equator.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#91 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun May 14, 2023 10:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
gib wrote:

The models pretty much nailed this. It's been remarkable seeing the predicted future come to life in Mocha and Fabien.


Not as likely in the Atlantic because South America is in the way, but anytime its in season and theres a legitimate equatorial WWB in the IO and entire Pacific basins, TCG chances will be very high on either side of the equator

IIRC there was sort of a WWB in the Atlantic back in June 2021 when the equatorial Atlantic was exceptionally warm (during a strongly positive Atlantic Equatorial Mode episode, or "Atlantic Niño"), and it helped in aiding the cyclogenesis of Elsa, which was very southerly in latitude thanks to a suppressed ITCZ early on. But in terms of dual TCG I'm pretty sure that's unprecedented, if not next to impossible due to a myriad of reasons (real estate being one of them as you mentioned). Of course you get the occasional (sub)tropical cyclone forming off the coast of Brazil but I don't recall anything spawning from any sort of Atlantic WWB-esque event in the SATL. Even then with Elsa it's not like the precursor disturbance originated entirely from the WWB, it was a tropical wave that just so happened to come off at the right time to interact with it. Was pretty neat to witness nevertheless.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#92 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon May 15, 2023 1:50 am

Gotta watch the East Coast over the next few weeks, could maybe see something.
Yeah, I know it's 300 hours out.
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#93 Postby gib » Tue May 16, 2023 2:49 am

Kingarabian wrote:Not as likely in the Atlantic because South America is in the way, but anytime it's in season and there's a legitimate equatorial WWB in the IO and entire Pacific basins, TCG chances will be very high on either side of the equator.

That makes sense. An equatorial WWB would impart spin on its north and south edge - the GFS gif illustrated that beautifully. These type of twin storms aren't that rare, but I didn't really follow global tropics in prior years so this event was noteworthy for me (especially with Mocha becoming a monster).

Anyway, I remembered your post and Mr. McDorkface's reply and wanted to circle back – it was fascinating to see this particular prediction come to life. Thanks go out to you and Mr. McDorkface for the posts!
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#94 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 18, 2023 11:45 am

WTNT82 EGRR 181610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.05.2023

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 33.6N 76.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.05.2023 144 34.0N 75.4W 1008 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181610


Sometimes the UKMET latches onto entities that aren't entirely (sub)tropical so I suppose we'll see what the graphical product shows, not much I'd reckon. Other models do have something sloppy stewing off the SE coast around that timeframe but nothing well-defined really.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#95 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 19, 2023 11:56 pm

Expecting SW Atlantic/Bahamas region to be highlighted by NHC in a few days.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#96 Postby Steve » Sat May 20, 2023 1:29 am

Agreed. Australian model takes MJO pretty far into phase 8. Japanese model doesn’t really agree. Both are good quality, but they have far different solutions for next week.

Australian
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... boma.shtml

Japanese
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Strange thing is despite the GFS’s forecast, Phase 8 in MJJ isn’t typically associated with enhanced precipitation in the mid-Atlantic. There’s some farther south into eastern NC in the AMJ composites. If we get a coastal low be it tropical or not that brings a lot of rain to VA, MD, NJ, that would be a slight anomaly. It’s possible Phase 8 might have an alley for development off the Atlantic coast but I’m not on desktop with those links available. .
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#97 Postby mantis83 » Sat May 20, 2023 11:01 am

wxman57 wrote:Still no phantom storms in the 16-day GFS run overnight. Good. Hope it stays quiet until late August or September.

hopefully it stays quiet in august and september too..... :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#98 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat May 20, 2023 11:03 am

SFLcane wrote:Expecting SW Atlantic/Bahamas region to be highlighted by NHC in a few days.

https://i.postimg.cc/8P9HhB1g/IMG-1281.gif

Image
The 12z run is loading right now, so we'll see what it has.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#99 Postby NDG » Sat May 20, 2023 11:32 am

Definitely off of the SE US coast/north of Greater Antilles is the area to watch over the next few days if not few weeks for early action and then some, models continue to show lower than average MSLPs and high rainfall totals.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#100 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 23, 2023 1:23 pm

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