2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Gefs/Gfs still quite active… is it bias/phantom who knows but we will find out soon.

[SFLcane]

Gefs/Gfs still quite active… is it bias/phantom who knows but we will find out soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/fRtZprHP/IMG-7785.gif

It’s certainly not alone.

[Category5Kaiju]

Gefs/Gfs still quite active… is it bias/phantom who knows but we will find out soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/fRtZprHP/IMG-7785.gif

Still too early to tell at this point, but what I can say is that this system seems to develop in the ECAR as a silent wave rather than the typical WCAR spurious vorticity. At least that is a known method of TG, especially late in the year.

[Blown Away]

best free image hosting

GFS continues to show something stirring up in the Caribbean. 06z run a good test for your weather station SFLcane!

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X70dwkw8/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh198-384.gif [/url]best free image hosting

GFS continues to show something stirring up in the Caribbean. 06z run a good test for your weather station SFLcane!

Bring it!

[cycloneye]

As long the European does not have anything, GFS is an outlier. CMC has a crossover of 92E / Pilar to SW Caribbean and develops.

[blp]

Its hard to tell what will develop but certainly the shear forecasts continue to be quite favorable for the next 30 days. I would imagine something is going to form.

[chris_fit]

EURO, GFS, and CMC ensembles for Sat Nov 4th (Not this, but next Saturday)

TLDR; Something is gonna try to brew down there.

[Weathertracker96]

EURO, GFS, and CMC ensembles for Sat Nov 4th (Not this, but next Saturday)

TLDR; Something is gonna try to brew down there.


https://i.imgur.com/3yXOUhr.png

https://i.imgur.com/xBEVrd4.png

https://i.imgur.com/eWNrcGP.png

Do you think we might a code yellow sometime soon for that area or would the NHC wait to see if signals still show in a couple of days?

Unrelated to my question, it seems ensemble wise, major models are trying to show something.

[chris_fit]

EURO, GFS, and CMC ensembles for Sat Nov 4th (Not this, but next Saturday)

TLDR; Something is gonna try to brew down there.


https://i.imgur.com/3yXOUhr.png

https://i.imgur.com/xBEVrd4.png

https://i.imgur.com/eWNrcGP.png

Do you think we might a code yellow sometime soon for that area or would the NHC wait to see if signals still show in a couple of days?

Unrelated to my question, it seems ensemble wise, major models are trying to show something.

No lemon for another couple more days most likely.

[DunedinDave]

There’s been no consistency with this. Seems like GFS gets these happy hour runs where it bombs it to a cat 5 and then the next run it’s nothing.

I think something likely to form down there, but strength and direction are a complete unknown right now. We should know more Monday. Like someone said, we need to at least see the Euro jump on board.

[ThunderForce]

Looking at the 06 GFS run's vorticity, it seems possible that the cyclogenesis starts from some sort of vorticity in the Caribbean mixing with what may be some remnant vorticity from Tammy and/or the front that Tammy's entangled with. You can see the remnant vorticity getting pushed south at about forecast hour 174 and starting to form at the end:

[SFLcane]

Looking at the 06 GFS run's vorticity, it seems possible that the cyclogenesis starts from some sort of vorticity in the Caribbean mixing with what may be some remnant vorticity from Tammy and/or the front that Tammy's entangled with. You can see the remnant vorticity getting pushed south at about forecast hour 174 and starting to form at the end:
https://i.postimg.cc/447Fx1Vd/gfs-z500-vort-watl-fh54-222.gif

Not sure if it's Tammy or just the E Caribbean wave/slop. Either way, doesn't look all that realistic

[REDHurricane]

I have an ominous feeling about this one... there is so much anomalously hot water still left in the Caribbean that logic would dictate "needs" to get transported poleward somehow, and the atmosphere looks quite conducive to TC development for this time of year as well. Obviously it's way too early to be legitimately concerned or worried about anything specific, but I really think we could be in for one more major hurricane/"big one" before this season is said and done. Plus, if we're going along with the "recent hurricane seasons have been running about 2 weeks behind climatology" theory, this would line up with the typical mid-to-late October bump in development before the season begins to wind down during November/December.

[SFLcane]

I have an ominous feeling about this one... there is so much anomalously hot water still left in the Caribbean that logic would dictate "needs" to get transported poleward somehow, and the atmosphere looks quite conducive to TC development for this time of year as well. Obviously it's way too early to be legitimately concerned or worried about anything specific, but I really think we could be in for one more major hurricane/"big one" before this season is said and done. Plus, if we're going along with the "recent hurricane seasons have been running about 2 weeks behind climatology" theory, this would line up with the common mid-to-late October bump in development before the season typically begins to wind down.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

They're always warm though...GFS produces about 100 out of every 1 TCs that happen there.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks Phantom. No other model other than the CMC and GFS develops this, and seems to originate from an area known to produce vorticies up the wazoo.

[SFLcane]

Looks Phantom. No other model other than the CMC and GFS develops this.

Well i think low pressure could surely develope but not a full blown cat 3 tc as the gfs has.

[REDHurricane]

I have an ominous feeling about this one... there is so much anomalously hot water still left in the Caribbean that logic would dictate "needs" to get transported poleward somehow, and the atmosphere looks quite conducive to TC development for this time of year as well. Obviously it's way too early to be legitimately concerned or worried about anything specific, but I really think we could be in for one more major hurricane/"big one" before this season is said and done. Plus, if we're going along with the "recent hurricane seasons have been running about 2 weeks behind climatology" theory, this would line up with the common mid-to-late October bump in development before the season typically begins to wind down.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

They're always warm though...GFS produces about 100 out of every 1 TCs that happen there.

But we're already seeing strong GFS/Canadian ensemble support in the southern Caribbean less than 10 days out, and even the EPS is showing 40-50% odds for TC development in the same spot over the next ~12 days. Like I said, nothing concrete to worry about yet, but if I lived anywhere near the Caribbean I know I would be keeping a very close eye on this potential system, as it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a strong Caribbean hurricane to form in late October/early November.

[SFLcane]

I have an ominous feeling about this one... there is so much anomalously hot water still left in the Caribbean that logic would dictate "needs" to get transported poleward somehow, and the atmosphere looks quite conducive to TC development for this time of year as well. Obviously it's way too early to be legitimately concerned or worried about anything specific, but I really think we could be in for one more major hurricane/"big one" before this season is said and done. Plus, if we're going along with the "recent hurricane seasons have been running about 2 weeks behind climatology" theory, this would line up with the common mid-to-late October bump in development before the season typically begins to wind down.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

They're always warm though...GFS produces about 100 out of every 1 TCs that happen there.

But we're already seeing strong GFS/Canadian ensemble support in the southern Caribbean less than 10 days out, and even the EPS is showing 40-50% odds for TC development in the same spot over the next ~12 days. Like I said, nothing concrete to worry about yet, but if I lived anywhere near the Caribbean I know I would be keeping a very close eye on this potential system, as it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a strong Caribbean hurricane to form in late October/early November.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20231025-2020/e9/ps2png-worker-commands-74964888f5-hgff2-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-QUBJAJ.png

That's over a day old at this point and honestly weeklies aren't all that useful for this one. We have the 2-week EPS

[mantis83]

As long the European does not have anything, GFS is an outlier. CMC has a crossover of 92E / Pilar to SW Caribbean and develops.

agreed! but after what just happened with otis in the epac, i would keep at least one eye open........