2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:37 am

All about the model runs thru 16 days or upgrades thru 2023 here.

To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:All about the model runs thru 16 days or upgrades thru 2023 here.

To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.

https://i.imgur.com/lKHneh4.gif


It has another one SW of the Azores at the same time, which later seems more tropical.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:31 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Euro is getting upgraded this summer

https://twitter.com/mikesjustsayin/status/1612524751263760384


Wow, more lines to follow. :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Euro is getting upgraded this summer

https://twitter.com/mikesjustsayin/status/1612524751263760384


Wow, more lines to follow. :D


It's probably not gonna happen, but imagine the chaos that would ensue in the wx community if Arlene and Brett both formed this month :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:35 pm

Good GFS and GEFS scores against European thru day 5.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1613288252835876880


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:41 pm

I posted about this low last monday but the models continue to show it today.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1613740368935424001




 https://twitter.com/WillWeaverRVA/status/1613952128623546404




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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#8 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Jan 13, 2023 4:28 pm

The new GFDL SHiELD also seems quite enthusiastic with development.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#9 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:53 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:The new GFDL SHiELD also seems quite enthusiastic with development.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1006712191522721812/1063568244818051123/simulatedir-GoM-2023011312-081.png


If we get a harmless January NS that spins on off to sea and gains a unique place in Atlantic hurricane season history...then bring it on :P
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:50 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#11 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:21 am


The CMC is still showing development, but that model isn't really known to be reliable when it comes to (S)TCG.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:32 pm

The Euro ensembles are bullish.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#13 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:The Euro ensembles are bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/eQ5jde2.png

The ECMWF Master is also quite interesting.
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Although I don't think the chances we'll see Arlene from this are very high, it'll be interesting to track its progress.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#14 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:23 pm

Well then...
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#15 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:58 pm

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Looks like that the models are in agreement that a low pressure system could evolve into a subtropical system and maybe even get an brief eye-like-feature very soon, in less than 48H.

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If the NHC insists on not demarcating this as an area of ​​interest (AOI) or Invest 90L, we may experience delays in monitoring this system if this becomes a subtropical storm.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#16 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:19 pm

This may showing winter, but this could have implications for hurricane season 2023.

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1615787382413869079


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#17 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:54 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:15 pm

Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#19 Postby aspen » Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?

https://i.imgur.com/bVRml3a.png


If this were to develop, it would be only the second NAtl TC to ever form the in the month of February. I wonder why February TCs are so much less frequent than January or April TCs.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:44 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?

https://i.imgur.com/bVRml3a.png


If this were to develop, it would be only the second NAtl TC to ever form the in the month of February. I wonder why February TCs are so much less frequent than January or April TCs.


Generally speaking, basin-wide shear and dry air are much more severe in February than January or April. With that being said, it would be interesting to see what this storm does. So far, it seems like 2023 has no fear in attempting STS or TS genesis even months before June 1 (you can perhaps thank the abnormally warm subtropics for that).
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