2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

The timeframe is approaching 7 days and we will find out if NHC is interested or not.

With the 12Z today, it is up to 13 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean/GOM TC in week 2.

Only to drop it after 25 runs. You''ll see.

Crazy stubborn model

[cainjamin]

I'm not buying the GFS. It does this every single year around this time; same location, same storm, same dates. If the EC or CMC jumps on the bandwagon over the next few days I'll be a little more intrigued, but for now it feels very phantomy.

[MGC]

May of 2022 had a similar GFS solution. I'll believe the GFS when other models get onboard......MGC

[NDG]

Once it gets within the 5-7 day range either the GFS will drop it or other models will join in.
It never fails.

[AnnularCane]

Are there any current waves around that this might come from? An already existing "seed?"

[wxman57]

GFS upper air pattern does not match the 12Z Canadian at all. Let's see what the EC has at 12Z. I think this is a phantom storm, but I still think that the GFS sees something in the SW Caribbean that it incorrectly steers north into the Gulf vs. west into the East Pac due to the very deep/sharp trof it has across the central Gulf. If that upper air pattern is wrong, then the GFS surface solution is wrong.

[IcyTundra]

It looks like the CMC has a weak low in the EPAC maybe it is the same system that the GFS has been showing. It would make much more sense for the CMC to be right.

[tiger_deF]

GFS is now showing TCG at around hour 228-234. Still in phantom range, and a definitive outlier from other models in the same range, but the consistency for the past week certainly raises some eyebrows.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs still showing development in the west Carib (but pushing back the timeframe some), however the Canadian looks like it's trying to get something in the East Pacific out of it now. Starting to get more confident that GFS is just doing it's usual phantom June thing.

[ChrisH-UK]

Systems that form in the models that originate from area of Columbia to Nicaragua they tend to move west over time and in to the Pacific which I think what is going to happen. The GFS model has 2 system appearing one in the Caribbean and one in the Pacific I guess at this time it's edging it's bets. However do far it has been consistent so far and now the ECMWF is now showing signs of the same thing in it's latest run at the 216h mark. Still it is way to early to panic about a hurricane hitting from Corpus Christi to Pensacola. Also the latest runs are now showing activity in the coast of Africa and the MDR.

GFS


ECMWF

[wxman57]

240 hr EC does show 850mb vorticity now - it's moving west across Central America. Euro has a stronger ridge to the north than the GFS, thus the movement into the East Pacific.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GFS 6/9 run makes it 16 runs in a row.

[Wampadawg]

The 6Z GFS 6/9 run makes it 16 runs in a row


Hero or Zero we shall see!.

[MetroMike]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

[boca]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

I just saw it right thru South Florida so now we are under a phantom alert until the GFS 18z comes out and it goes back to Texas.

[BobHarlem]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

With the Euro and CMC both showing nada (except maybe in the EPAC), not really.

[Wampadawg]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?[/quote

I just saw it right thru South Florida so now we are under a phantom alert until the GFS 18z comes out and it goes back to Texas.

Spin the fantasy wheel, every gulf state gets a turn!

[wxman57]

Both the Canadian & European models have a strong ridge to the north at day 10, shoving the vorticity into the East Pac. GFS remains the outlier, but its trof across the central Gulf is weakening with each run, trending more like the EC and CMC. I'm still thinking this may become the first East Pac storm of the season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's typically not a good sign for development in that region this time of year when the GFS is on its own. I know there is still time but we've seen this same song and dance too many times before to get burned yet again. I would agree with wxman57 in that the most likely scenario right now would be EPAC development.

[Yellow Evan]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

Because the 850hpa vorticity that the disturbance comes from is overly amplified by the GFS overestimating convection over Lake Maraciabo.