2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#61 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Apr 07, 2023 5:22 pm

There might be something about to happen in the Gulf but have you seen the Shear and the Moisture in the Gulf at the time.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#62 Postby wxman57 » Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:33 am

Overnight model runs look much more realistic. They have a broad low with 25-30 kt winds to its north Tue/Wed. Nothing tropical looking.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#63 Postby SFLcane » Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:55 am

Um… :double:

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#64 Postby wxman57 » Sat Apr 08, 2023 1:22 pm



You can always find an outlier model. Given the strong shear, cool-ish water, upper-level low overhead, and a front lying across the northern Gulf with cool air at the surface, I think we'll see just a little stronger low than the one that tracked across the same area last night. Front low. Gradient to its north may produce 30-35 kts Wednesday, but decreasing wind Thursday as the high to the north moves east. No wind inland and not much precip inland.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#65 Postby Nimbus » Sat Apr 08, 2023 4:24 pm

Looks like it might depend on how far the front digs and how much energy is left in the gulf or if it cuts off into a low.
The earlier models showing support from energy over the Bahamas would not be viable if the front digs down into south Florida.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#66 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Apr 08, 2023 6:16 pm

18z GFS gives my area 8" of rain with the low, 12z Euro about .2". NWS going with 20% chance of rain through the event so it's clear they don't have much confidence in the GFS. We just received over 4" at my house (largest rain of the year) so I'll take the lower end of the modeled QPF as the GFS would cause significant flooding issues.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#67 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:12 pm

This isn't going to be a tropical cyclone. I doubt a subtropical cyclone will occur either. It looks like a very shallow low will develop.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#68 Postby Nimbus » Sun Apr 09, 2023 6:14 am

The front dug a little further south, the tail of the front is coming off Mexico into the gulf this morning.
That has shifted the local west coast Florida forecast to a Thursday rain event thus far.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#69 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:56 am

Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#70 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Apr 09, 2023 12:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).

Yeah that sub 950mb may monster was a ridiculous ghost.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#71 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:57 am

Yea, should just be a broad surface Low but the NAM is surely going all in again on the 06z run this morning. At least it's entertaining.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:52 am

The model runs for the GOM Low can be posted at the new Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico thread.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#73 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 01, 2023 9:03 pm

Twin IO systems on the models.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#74 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 01, 2023 9:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Twin IO systems on the models.

Spawned by a WWB there. GFS/GEFS in particular has it very potent.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#75 Postby tropicwatch » Tue May 02, 2023 4:52 am

That would be one hell of a pressure gradient at the equator if that pans out.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#76 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 04, 2023 12:30 pm

Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#77 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu May 04, 2023 1:03 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing :lol:
https://i.ibb.co/Y03KRG9/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh294-384.gif

The GFS will show this as a (major) hurricane very soon, as usual
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#78 Postby AnnularCane » Thu May 04, 2023 1:56 pm

I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#79 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 04, 2023 9:58 pm

GFS is suggesting that there might be a very powerful Indian Ocean tropical cyclone by the end of next week (has been for the past several runs); it looks to hit either Bangladesh or Myanmar
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#80 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu May 04, 2023 11:41 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks. :lol:


Hurricane Season is not far off, GFS just practising and getting in shape :D
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