2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
There might be something about to happen in the Gulf but have you seen the Shear and the Moisture in the Gulf at the time.
3 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Overnight model runs look much more realistic. They have a broad low with 25-30 kt winds to its north Tue/Wed. Nothing tropical looking.
3 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
You can always find an outlier model. Given the strong shear, cool-ish water, upper-level low overhead, and a front lying across the northern Gulf with cool air at the surface, I think we'll see just a little stronger low than the one that tracked across the same area last night. Front low. Gradient to its north may produce 30-35 kts Wednesday, but decreasing wind Thursday as the high to the north moves east. No wind inland and not much precip inland.
1 likes
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like it might depend on how far the front digs and how much energy is left in the gulf or if it cuts off into a low.
The earlier models showing support from energy over the Bahamas would not be viable if the front digs down into south Florida.
The earlier models showing support from energy over the Bahamas would not be viable if the front digs down into south Florida.
0 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS gives my area 8" of rain with the low, 12z Euro about .2". NWS going with 20% chance of rain through the event so it's clear they don't have much confidence in the GFS. We just received over 4" at my house (largest rain of the year) so I'll take the lower end of the modeled QPF as the GFS would cause significant flooding issues.
0 likes
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This isn't going to be a tropical cyclone. I doubt a subtropical cyclone will occur either. It looks like a very shallow low will develop.
1 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The front dug a little further south, the tail of the front is coming off Mexico into the gulf this morning.
That has shifted the local west coast Florida forecast to a Thursday rain event thus far.
That has shifted the local west coast Florida forecast to a Thursday rain event thus far.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).
1 likes
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
wxman57 wrote:Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).
Yeah that sub 950mb may monster was a ridiculous ghost.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6355
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yea, should just be a broad surface Low but the NAM is surely going all in again on the 06z run this morning. At least it's entertaining.
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139137
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The model runs for the GOM Low can be posted at the new Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico thread.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Twin IO systems on the models.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 707
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Twin IO systems on the models.
Spawned by a WWB there. GFS/GEFS in particular has it very potent.
1 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3205
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
That would be one hell of a pressure gradient at the equator if that pans out.
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 707
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing
0 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- Hurricane2022
- Category 4
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
- Location: Araçatuba, Brazil
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing
https://i.ibb.co/Y03KRG9/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh294-384.gif
The GFS will show this as a (major) hurricane very soon, as usual
0 likes
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2635
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks.
1 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3360
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS is suggesting that there might be a very powerful Indian Ocean tropical cyclone by the end of next week (has been for the past several runs); it looks to hit either Bangladesh or Myanmar
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AnnularCane wrote:I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks.
Hurricane Season is not far off, GFS just practising and getting in shape
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: hcane27 and 160 guests