Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#82 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:11 pm

This isn't a fish or non-threat to land either. Models do show it making landfall. Tropical storm or hurricane warnings are needed.
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Last edited by Sciencerocks on Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#83 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:14 pm

It looks tropical or sub-tropical at the very least.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast (is INVEST 90L)

#84 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:25 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Very curious to see what happens within the next day or so. You would think if it persists and becomes better looking that the NHC may be forced to reconsider?


It has no time. By sunrise tomorrow it will be moving across the eastern tip of Nova Scotia as a weakening storm with possibly 35kt wind.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#85 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:30 pm

1. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.

Will the NHC issue another STWO or not? Or will they already start the advisories at 0300z??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#86 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:50 pm

This might be something they might just do further reanalysis on.

We've passed normal advisory time (4 pm EST).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#87 Postby aspen » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:19 pm

It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#88 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:24 pm

aspen wrote:It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.


I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#89 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:32 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.


I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.



And Alex was a hurricane... An unnamed TS is one thing but it's hard to imagine an unnamed hurricane in this day and age.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#90 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:36 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.


I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.



And Alex was a hurricane... An unnamed TS is one thing but it's hard to imagine an unnamed hurricane in this day and age.



That microwave image that cycloneye posted suggests that this is also a cane. At least earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#91 Postby Landy » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:59 pm

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:11 pm

Landy wrote:Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,


Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#93 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:14 pm

Landy wrote:Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

I hope they will revise this BT and upgrade 90L to SS Arlene.. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#94 Postby Landy » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Landy wrote:Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,


Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,


I did some digging, and it looks like that determines the depth of the system. So now it's medium depth instead of shallow. Found the info here in case I interpreted wrong: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/do ... abdeck.txt
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#95 Postby zzzh » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Landy wrote:Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,


Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,

That is the depth of the system, S is shallow, M is medium, D is deep.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#96 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:42 pm

This is not even a shallow warm core then. What do we need to get this thing named?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#97 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:54 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#98 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:54 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:This is not even a shallow warm core then. What do we need to get this thing named?




I think the prime minister could then direct the Canadian hurricane center to start advisories.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#99 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:24 pm

Whatever is remaining will make "landfall" in my home town tomorrow.

Not expecting anything more than a light impact, those waters are freezing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#100 Postby Landy » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:29 pm

Central convection has been deepening, perhaps deeper than it has been for most of the day, as it quickly approaches cooler waters. You would expect it to start deteriorating pretty soon. Image
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