How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

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How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:02 am

During the off-season, I figured that this would be an interesting thing to do, so I've decided to lay out a walkthrough of each El Nino year since 1950 and how Atlantic activity in each of those years proceeded. Are El Ninos really *that* detrimental to Atlantic activity, at least in the context of not overall ACE/activity but rather on an individual storm basis (as in, do El Ninos really squash the potential for powerful storms to happen, especially major hurricanes)? More importantly, do El Ninos impact the potential for any powerful storms to impact land? With 2023's El Nino possibility being higher than many of the recent years we've had, I feel this *might* come in handy in future seasonal indicator discussions. So, here we go.

1951: Moderate, started in May. 12/8/3 (1 Cat 3, 2 Cat 4s)

Cat 4 Charlie hit Central America and ended up being very deadly and destructive.

1953: Weak, started in January. 14/7/3 (2 Cat 3s, 1 Cat 5)

Cat 5 Carol hit Canada at Cat 1 strength after menacing Bermuda. Cat 3 Florence made landfall in the Florida Panhandle at Cat 1 strength.

1957: Strong, started in March. 8/3/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 3 Audrey was an unusually strong June hurricane that slammed into the Texas/Louisiana border at major strength. Cat 4 Carrie ended up being a very long-lived open ocean system.

1958: Weak, started in September. 12/7/3 (3 Cat 4s)

Cat 4 Helene made an extremely close brush off of the Outer Banks. Cat 4 Daisy came close as well.

1963. Moderate, started in May. 10/7/3 (2 Cat 3s, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Flora was an extremely deadly and damaging storm that hit Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas.

1965. Strong, started in April. 10/4/1 (1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Betsy ended up impacting Florida and Louisiana, bringing widespread damage.

1968. Moderate, started in September. 8/5/0 (no majors, 1 Cat 2)

Cat 2 Gladys made an October landfall in the Florida Gulf Coast near Tampa. Otherwise, not very noteworthy, and a good example of "El Ninos shutting down the Atlantic".

1969. Weak, started in July. 18/12/3 (2 Cat 3s, 1 Cat 5)

Cat 5 Camille made a historic landfall at max strength in Mississippi. Cat 3 Gerda attained major strength near New England but stayed away from land for the most part.

1972. Strong, started in April. 7/3/0 (no majors, 1 Cat 2)

Nothing remarkable to note about this season, perhaps less so than 1968. This season is also what many might think when it comes down to "El Ninos shutting down the Atlantic".

1976. Weak, started in August. 10/6/2 (2 Cat 3s)

Cat 3 Belle rode up off the coast of the Eastern Seaboard.

1977. Weak, started in August. 6/5/1 (1 Cat 5)

Cat 5 Anita hit the Gulf Coast of Mexico, causing deaths and flooding.

1979. Weak, started in September. 9/5/2 (1 Cat 4, 1 Cat 5)

Cat 5 David hit the DR and Haiti, bringing with it massive loss of life. Cat 4 Frederic hit Mississippi, also inflicting high levels of damage.

1982. Very strong, started in March. 6/2/1 (1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Debby was an open ocean major hurricane.

1986. Moderate, started in August. 6/4/0 (no majors, 1 Cat 2)

Nothing very remarkable about this year. A third "El Ninos shutting down the Atlantic" poster child.

1987. Strong, continuation of 1986. 7/3/1 (1 Cat 3)

Cat 3 Emily hit the DR and Haiti before recurving out to sea.

1991. Strong, started in April. 8/4/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 3 Bob became a New England disaster.

1994. Moderate, started in August. 7/3/0 (no majors, 1 Cat 2)

Not much to comment on about this season. A fourth season embodies the "El Ninos shutting down the Atlantic" idea.

1997. Very strong, started in April. 8/3/1 (1 Cat 3)

Cat 3 Erika spun harmlessly out in the open Atlantic.

2002. Moderate, started in May. 12/4/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 3 Isidore impacted the Yucatan. Cat 4 Lili slammed into Louisiana at Cat 1 strength.

2004. Weak, started in June. 15/9/6 (2 Cat 3s, 3 Cat 4s, 1 Cat 5)

Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all terrorize Florida. This is a very infamous season.

2006. Weak, started in August. 10/5/2 (2 Cat 3s)

Cat 3 Gordon and Helene achieve the same strength but churn in the open ocean without causing any deaths.

2009. Moderate, started in June. 9/3/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Bill menaces Atlantic Canada but ends up being relatively tame in terms of fatalities.

2014. Weak, started in October. 8/6/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Gonzalo slammed into Bermuda at major strength.

2015. Very strong, continuation of 2014. 11/4/2 (1 Cat 3, 1 Cat 4)

Cat 4 Joaquin caused damage in the South Bahamas and sank a navy vessel, causing losses of life.

2018. Weak, started in September. 15/8/2 (1 Cat 4, 1 Cat 5)

Cat 4 Florence floods the Carolinas. Cat 5 Michael razes the Florida Panhandle. A very famous, recent season that is talked about as many Storm2k trackers also closely tracked that season.
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#2 Postby Blown Away » Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:59 pm

Nice summary, it seems if “official” El Niño holds off until @August we are likely to see average storm numbers.
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:55 pm

1992 is frequently used as an example of how "it only takes one," and rightfully so, but I think maybe a year like 1965 is an even better example as there was a strong El Nino going on at the time of Betsy, which wasn't the case with Andrew.

Of course I may just be biased since Betsy hit SELA where I grew up (even though I didn't exist yet). :wink: Of course Andrew came close.
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#4 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:51 pm

After all the activity this year, it's interesting how more active this season has been compared to last year's La Nina.

1953 seems to be a good analog since Idalia and Lee both sound similar to Carol and Florence of that year.
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#5 Postby WalterWhite » Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:42 pm

I distinctly remember 1969 having 5 major hurricanes. :D
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#6 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Oct 04, 2023 5:00 am

Does the EL Nino effect the Atlantic well yes and no. Roughly as long as the atlantic is hotter than the Pacific and the El Nino or La Nina isn't too strong then the atlantic is active.

With this year been odd been both a El Nino and been hot I was wondering the same question so I got the temperature data between different areas of the Pacific and the Atlantic out of curiosity to see if there has been any equivalents in the past. So looking at the West Pacific MDR vs Atlantic MDR, East Pacific MDR vs Atlantic MDR and the Nino region 3.4 and Atlantic equator equivalent. Looking at it the best match is comparing the temperatures of Nino 3.4 and Atlantic EQ in relation to to how active the season will be in terms of ACE points. The other areas looks like they have less correlation whether the Atlantic is more busy with a higher ACE.

Also it looks like the trend is for hotter oceans and with that more activity, looking at the oceans the have got hotter the Atlantic has been more hotter than the Pacific. I think years like we have this year are going to happen a lot more often.

This is the comparison between the Nino 3.4 and the same area in the Atlantic EQ. Red is hotter than average and blue is colder than average on the temperatures. The difference column shows is the Atlantic is hotter (red) or colder (blue). The SOI red for El Nino and blue for La Nina.

Image

Here is a link to the spreadsheet so you can have a look at it yourself and tell me that I have made mistakes which no doubt I have.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
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Re: How much do El Ninos actually impact Atlantic activity: A lay-perspective analysis

#7 Postby WalterWhite » Fri Oct 06, 2023 2:56 pm

There is a clear association between the presence of an El Nino and major hurricane count.
1967: 1 MH
1968 (Nino): 0 MH
1969 (Nino): 3 MH
1970: 2 MH,
1971: 1 MH
1972 (Nino): 0 MH
1973: 1 MH
1974: 2 MH
1975: 3 MH
1976 (Nino): 2 MH
1977 (Nino): 1 MH
1978: 2 MH
1979 (Nino): 2 MH
1980: 2 MH
1981: 3 MH
1982 (Nino): 1 MH
1983: 1 MH
1984: 1 MH
1985: 3 MH
1986 (Nino): 0 MH
1987 (Nino): 1 MH
1988: 3 MH
1989: 2 MH
1990: 1 MH
1991 (Nino): 2 MH
1992: 1 MH
1993: 1 MH
1994 (Nino): 0 MH
1995: 5 MH
1996: 6 MH
1997 (Nino): 1 MH
1998: 3 MH
1999: 5 MH
2000: 3 MH
2001: 4 MH
2002 (Nino): 2 MH
2003: 3 MH
2004 (Nino): 6 MH
2005: 7 MH
2006 (Nino): 2 MH
2007: 2 MH
2008: 5 MH
2009 (Nino): 2 MH
2010: 5 MH
2011: 4 MH
2012: 2 MH
2013: 0 MH
2014 (Nino): 2 MH
2015 (Nino): 2 MH
2016: 4 MH
2017: 6 MH
2018 (Nino): 2 MH
2019: 3 MH
2020: 7 MH
2021: 4 MH
2022: 2 MH

Mean El Nino season MH count: 1.6
Mean Non-El Nino season MH count: 3.0
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