Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

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WalterWhite
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Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#1 Postby WalterWhite » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:27 pm

Both the 2013 and 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons:
  • Were strongly expected to be above-average/hyperactive by meteorological agencies
  • Had very favorable SST patterns that theoretically would be conducive to a hyperactive season
  • Were ultimately below-average after streaks of above-average activity
  • Had zero pre-season storms each
  • Were each preceded by seasons that had pre-season storms
  • Had areas monitored for potential subtropical activity during the post-season
  • Had their first hurricanes form in September

With all these similarities, could it be that similar factors caused both 2013 and 2022 to be much chiller hurricane seasons than expected (activity-wise at least)? If so, what do they have in common that other hurricane seasons do not?
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#2 Postby Astromanía » Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:51 am

Wasn't the 2022 atlantic season average compared to 2013? Plus 2013 low activity was global if I not mistaken
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:33 am

It is indeed tempting to compare 2013 with 2022. However, I think the seasons have way more differences than similarities. For example, 2022 still featured major hurricanes (especially Cat 4 hurricanes; 2013 did not). 2022 was a true La Nina year (albeit third year La Nina), while 2013 was a cool neutral following a warm neutral year. There are some speculations that Hunga Tonga somehow messed up the atmospheric conditions early in 2022, which had downstream effects on the Atlantic hurricane season; 2013 did not feature such a kind of volcanic eruption.

With that being said, they do have some key similarities, the most striking of which is that the subtropics were exceptionally warm compared to the deep tropics and both years were also -ENSO years. I think the main reason why both seasons struggled with activity is that the subtropics were super warm and distorted stability. Phil Klotzbach did acknowledge after the 2022 season that in future indicator forecasts, he was interested to see how mid-level dry air and wavebreaking could be incorporated to better predict seasonal activity as it was clear from last year that wind shear isn't really the main killer of TCs; mid-level dry air is (which makes sense considering the Atlantic has had El Nino years in the past that featured destructive major hurricanes, something that even the -ENSO, basin-warm 2013 failed to achieve :lol: ).
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#4 Postby HurakaYoshi » Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:17 am

WalterWhite wrote:Both the 2013 and 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons:
  • Were strongly expected to be above-average/hyperactive by meteorological agencies
  • Had very favorable SST patterns that theoretically would be conducive to a hyperactive season
  • Were ultimately below-average after streaks of above-average activity
  • Had zero pre-season storms each
  • Were each preceded by seasons that had pre-season storms
  • Had areas monitored for potential subtropical activity during the post-season
  • Had their first hurricanes form in September

With all these similarities, could it be that similar factors caused both 2013 and 2022 to be much chiller hurricane seasons than expected (activity-wise at least)? If so, what do they have in common that other hurricane seasons do not?


I would also like to add that both seasons had 14 storms at TS strength (though 2013 had one unnamed)
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#5 Postby WalterWhite » Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:35 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:It is indeed tempting to compare 2013 with 2022. However, I think the seasons have way more differences than similarities. For example, 2022 still featured major hurricanes (especially Cat 4 hurricanes; 2013 did not). 2022 was a true La Nina year (albeit third year La Nina), while 2013 was a cool neutral following a warm neutral year. There are some speculations that Hunga Tonga somehow messed up the atmospheric conditions early in 2022, which had downstream effects on the Atlantic hurricane season; 2013 did not feature such a kind of volcanic eruption.

With that being said, they do have some key similarities, the most striking of which is that the subtropics were exceptionally warm compared to the deep tropics and both years were also -ENSO years. I think the main reason why both seasons struggled with activity is that the subtropics were super warm and distorted stability. Phil Klotzbach did acknowledge after the 2022 season that in future indicator forecasts, he was interested to see how mid-level dry air and wavebreaking could be incorporated to better predict seasonal activity as it was clear from last year that wind shear isn't really the main killer of TCs; mid-level dry air is (which makes sense considering the Atlantic has had El Nino years in the past that featured destructive major hurricanes, something that even the -ENSO, basin-warm 2013 failed to achieve :lol: ).


Dry air affected 2020. It affected 2021. Both of those years were definitely above-average, and 2020 was hyperactive. There must be something more to this.

From 2016 to 2021, every season had above-average ACE and had an above-average number of storms---regardless of ENSO (2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years) or Atlantic SST patterns (2018 definitely did not have the most favorable Atlantic pattern). They all had over 130 ACE and over 15 storms; this seemed like the floor for 2022. The fact that 2022 was less active than any season from 2016 to 2021 (despite the more favorable SST patterns) indicates another factor at work. If not dry air, then what?
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:45 pm

WalterWhite wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:It is indeed tempting to compare 2013 with 2022. However, I think the seasons have way more differences than similarities. For example, 2022 still featured major hurricanes (especially Cat 4 hurricanes; 2013 did not). 2022 was a true La Nina year (albeit third year La Nina), while 2013 was a cool neutral following a warm neutral year. There are some speculations that Hunga Tonga somehow messed up the atmospheric conditions early in 2022, which had downstream effects on the Atlantic hurricane season; 2013 did not feature such a kind of volcanic eruption.

With that being said, they do have some key similarities, the most striking of which is that the subtropics were exceptionally warm compared to the deep tropics and both years were also -ENSO years. I think the main reason why both seasons struggled with activity is that the subtropics were super warm and distorted stability. Phil Klotzbach did acknowledge after the 2022 season that in future indicator forecasts, he was interested to see how mid-level dry air and wavebreaking could be incorporated to better predict seasonal activity as it was clear from last year that wind shear isn't really the main killer of TCs; mid-level dry air is (which makes sense considering the Atlantic has had El Nino years in the past that featured destructive major hurricanes, something that even the -ENSO, basin-warm 2013 failed to achieve :lol: ).


Dry air affected 2020. It affected 2021. Both of those years were definitely above-average, and 2020 was hyperactive. There must be something more to this.

From 2016 to 2021, every season had above-average ACE and had an above-average number of storms---regardless of ENSO (2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years) or Atlantic SST patterns (2018 definitely did not have the most favorable Atlantic pattern). They all had over 130 ACE and over 15 storms; this seemed like the floor for 2022. The fact that 2022 was less active than any season from 2016 to 2021 (despite the more favorable SST patterns) indicates another factor at work. If not dry air, then what?


Well, mid-level dry air and Sahara Dust dry air are not exactly the same (the former is much more detrimental to TCs). Every year does feature some sort of dry air issue, hence why the Atlantic isn't as active as the WPAC or EPAC typically. Yes 2020 and 2021 had dry air issues, but such did not last until late August/early September and were not as severe as 2022. Last year uniquely featured mid-level dry air issues that suppressed TCs (especially in August and early September) because the subtropics were much warmer than the deep tropics, and there also seemed to be an associated phenomenon called "wave-breaking" where a PV streamer dipped down from the extratropics and invaded the subtropics and tropics, causing dry air from continental Europe to be continuously sent over the Atlantic. Now as to why this all happened in the first place? That remains to be analyzed by scientists, but there's definitely suspicion that the third year La Nina had something to do with it.
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#7 Postby WalterWhite » Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:08 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
WalterWhite wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:It is indeed tempting to compare 2013 with 2022. However, I think the seasons have way more differences than similarities. For example, 2022 still featured major hurricanes (especially Cat 4 hurricanes; 2013 did not). 2022 was a true La Nina year (albeit third year La Nina), while 2013 was a cool neutral following a warm neutral year. There are some speculations that Hunga Tonga somehow messed up the atmospheric conditions early in 2022, which had downstream effects on the Atlantic hurricane season; 2013 did not feature such a kind of volcanic eruption.

With that being said, they do have some key similarities, the most striking of which is that the subtropics were exceptionally warm compared to the deep tropics and both years were also -ENSO years. I think the main reason why both seasons struggled with activity is that the subtropics were super warm and distorted stability. Phil Klotzbach did acknowledge after the 2022 season that in future indicator forecasts, he was interested to see how mid-level dry air and wavebreaking could be incorporated to better predict seasonal activity as it was clear from last year that wind shear isn't really the main killer of TCs; mid-level dry air is (which makes sense considering the Atlantic has had El Nino years in the past that featured destructive major hurricanes, something that even the -ENSO, basin-warm 2013 failed to achieve :lol: ).


Dry air affected 2020. It affected 2021. Both of those years were definitely above-average, and 2020 was hyperactive. There must be something more to this.

From 2016 to 2021, every season had above-average ACE and had an above-average number of storms---regardless of ENSO (2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years) or Atlantic SST patterns (2018 definitely did not have the most favorable Atlantic pattern). They all had over 130 ACE and over 15 storms; this seemed like the floor for 2022. The fact that 2022 was less active than any season from 2016 to 2021 (despite the more favorable SST patterns) indicates another factor at work. If not dry air, then what?


Well, mid-level dry air and Sahara Dust dry air are not exactly the same (the former is much more detrimental to TCs). Every year does feature some sort of dry air issue, hence why the Atlantic isn't as active as the WPAC or EPAC typically. Yes 2020 and 2021 had dry air issues, but such did not last until late August/early September and were not as severe as 2022. Last year uniquely featured mid-level dry air issues that suppressed TCs (especially in August and early September) because the subtropics were much warmer than the deep tropics, and there also seemed to be an associated phenomenon called "wave-breaking" where a PV streamer dipped down from the extratropics and invaded the subtropics and tropics, causing dry air from continental Europe to be continuously sent over the Atlantic. Now as to why this all happened in the first place? That remains to be analyzed by scientists, but there's definitely suspicion that the third year La Nina had something to do with it.


I also wonder if 2022 is like 2013 in the sense that it can basically be ignored when making season predictions. Both 2022 and 2013 dramatically underperformed prior years with similar background states. I wonder if 2022's major underperformance was so anomalous that it makes sense to ignore the season when making future predictions.

Think about it like this: every season from 2016 to 2021, regardless of ENSO, was above-average, at the time indicating that, under the current state of Atlantic conditions, above-average activity is virtually guaranteed. Then 2022 comes (a La Nina year, which is FAVORABLE for activity) and breaks the trend.

It being a third-year La Nina definitely might have contributed to the wave-breaking, and thus lower ACE, but such cannot fully explain why 2022 broke the streak of above-average activity because 2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years, which are usually less favorable for activity in the Atlantic than -ENSO years, regardless of whether the -ENSO event was 1st year, 2nd year, or 3rd year.
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#8 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:58 pm

WalterWhite wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
WalterWhite wrote:
Dry air affected 2020. It affected 2021. Both of those years were definitely above-average, and 2020 was hyperactive. There must be something more to this.

From 2016 to 2021, every season had above-average ACE and had an above-average number of storms---regardless of ENSO (2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years) or Atlantic SST patterns (2018 definitely did not have the most favorable Atlantic pattern). They all had over 130 ACE and over 15 storms; this seemed like the floor for 2022. The fact that 2022 was less active than any season from 2016 to 2021 (despite the more favorable SST patterns) indicates another factor at work. If not dry air, then what?


Well, mid-level dry air and Sahara Dust dry air are not exactly the same (the former is much more detrimental to TCs). Every year does feature some sort of dry air issue, hence why the Atlantic isn't as active as the WPAC or EPAC typically. Yes 2020 and 2021 had dry air issues, but such did not last until late August/early September and were not as severe as 2022. Last year uniquely featured mid-level dry air issues that suppressed TCs (especially in August and early September) because the subtropics were much warmer than the deep tropics, and there also seemed to be an associated phenomenon called "wave-breaking" where a PV streamer dipped down from the extratropics and invaded the subtropics and tropics, causing dry air from continental Europe to be continuously sent over the Atlantic. Now as to why this all happened in the first place? That remains to be analyzed by scientists, but there's definitely suspicion that the third year La Nina had something to do with it.


I also wonder if 2022 is like 2013 in the sense that it can basically be ignored when making season predictions. Both 2022 and 2013 dramatically underperformed prior years with similar background states. I wonder if 2022's major underperformance was so anomalous that it makes sense to ignore the season when making future predictions.

Think about it like this: every season from 2016 to 2021, regardless of ENSO, was above-average, at the time indicating that, under the current state of Atlantic conditions, above-average activity is virtually guaranteed. Then 2022 comes (a La Nina year, which is FAVORABLE for activity) and breaks the trend.

It being a third-year La Nina definitely might have contributed to the wave-breaking, and thus lower ACE, but such cannot fully explain why 2022 broke the streak of above-average activity because 2018 and 2019 were +ENSO years, which are usually less favorable for activity in the Atlantic than -ENSO years, regardless of whether the -ENSO event was 1st year, 2nd year, or 3rd year.


In my view, 2018 and 2019 were above average despite an El Nino because of the timing. This El Nino was a weak event (it did just fall short of exceeding a trimonthly anomaly of +1.0 C at one point however), but because it officially did not begin until late 2018, the 2018 Atlantic season was still able to crank out loads of activity before basically shutting down after Michael in mid-October. 2019 was expected to be an El Nino year, but the El Nino that formed in late 2018 died abruptly in the middle of the summer of 2019. This perhaps could explain the relative lack of activity before September (then of course came Dorian and a heck ton of storms after that). I think the fact that this El Nino just did not happen to last for long and started after hurricane season's heart played a big role in allowing 2018 and 2019 to be above average.

2022 was definitely a weirdo. Aside from the third year La Nina, there are people who believe that 2022's spectacular underperformance can be blamed on a rather unlikely source: a submarine volcano in the South Pacific. Hunga Tonga erupted in January 2022, but from what I have heard (and I'm not a volcanologist, so I can only say the superficial details of what I know), this eruption pumped an anomalous amount of water vapor deep into the atmosphere, which could have had unforeseen downstream effects that affected global cyclone activity later on, particularly in the Atlantic.
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#9 Postby Hammy » Mon Mar 27, 2023 8:02 pm

2022 was average across all statistical measures
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#10 Postby WalterWhite » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:33 am

Hammy wrote:2022 was average across all statistical measures


2022 had an ACE of 95.1 square hectoknots, which is BELOW the the 1951-2020 median of 96.7 square hectoknots. Plus, it is well below the 2012-2021 mean of 125.1 square hectoknots. It was surprisingly quiet given its VERY favorable background state.
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#11 Postby tolakram » Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:30 am

2022 did not have a favorable background state, which was recognized about half way through the season. The reason 2013 was slow has also been well documented. In both cases, moving forward, we should be able to recognize these and I think the experts will be able to improve seasonal forecasts, or at least correct sooner when conditions warrant.

The similarity between 2013 and 2022 is that we learned something.
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Re: Coincidences between 2013 and 2022

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:50 am

tolakram wrote:2022 did not have a favorable background state, which was recognized about half way through the season. The reason 2013 was slow has also been well documented. In both cases, moving forward, we should be able to recognize these and I think the experts will be able to improve seasonal forecasts, or at least correct sooner when conditions warrant.

The similarity between 2013 and 2022 is that we learned something.


Yeah, I honestly would not say that just because 2013 and 2022 defied expectations that they should be ignored in future seasonal predictions. It's quite clear at least from both seasons that mid-level dry air should ideally be accounted for in forecasts given how it is arguably the most detrimental known factor against TC activity and strength. Probably even worse than SAL, cool ssts, or wind shear.
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