Low Pressure Inland over the Southern U.S.

[Dean4Storms]

Very evident LLC to the WNW of the Keys moving northward. These Hi-Res CAMS sure do deepen this more than the globals.

[cycloneye]

25N-84.5W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While I think the low will ultimately be a non-tropical one, I think it's fair to expect TS like conditions in LA the next few days.

[Dean4Storms]

Buoy closest to that LLC down there.....

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42026

[Dean4Storms]

I know a bit off topic, but everyone aware of this?

"Coming soon: An updated and mobile-friendly version of the NDBC website with a look similar to other NWS sites will be launching on April 19, 2023."

[wxman57]

Very evident LLC to the WNW of the Keys moving northward. These Hi-Res CAMS sure do deepen this more than the globals.

That's just one of several swirls along the frontal boundary. Main low is forming south of SE LA. Completely frontal. Dewpoints in the low 60s offshore.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Here's a surface map. Low is forming just south of KATP, a deepwater platform in Walker Ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

Several meso vorts as was expected and shown with models initially this morning. As the upper lowmover western LA shifts the shear will continue to turn out of the south and become more divergent. Should get a consolidated LLC in the central gulf by this evening. As it starts the move with the shear it will have its best shot.

[AJC3]

 https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/1646162363328995328

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface analysis placed the main low there.

[cycloneye]

The synopsis of the area.

Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A 1010 mb low pres has developed over the central Gulf
near 26N89W, with a stationary front extending ESE to the Florida
Keys. Strong to near gale force E winds, with gusts to gale
force, are observed in the NE semicircle of the low. These strong
to gale force winds will continue over the NE and north-central
Gulf through tonight as the low moves N. The low will move inland
over the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves
inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening.
For the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western
Gulf which will cause winds and seas to increase.

[wxman57]

The 12z surface analysis placed the main low there.

https://i.imgur.com/Z5cIqvm.jpg

That analysis should have a cold front extending SW from the low to the northern Bay of Campeche. We (Texas coast) are definitely not in maritime-tropical air, we're in modified Canadian-Polar air, which means that there is a cold front across the Gulf to our south. Front is south of Tampico, MX but north of Veracruz.

I think that the HRRR is way too strong with the low, trying to develop a tropical core in a high wind shear environment. Wind 30-35 kts north of the low and frontal system looks more reasonable.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1646184071943569408

[wxman57]

Current situation in the Gulf. All of the pressure gradient is north and northeast of the weak low center, between it and the strong high to the northeast.

[Stormcenter]

Looks pretty much stationary right now.

[JetFuel_SE]

Current situation in the Gulf. All of the pressure gradient is north and northeast of the weak low center, between it and the strong high to the northeast.

http://wxman57.com/images/GulfLow.JPG

Care to back that up with more than lines you drew on a satellite image? I really don't know where you're getting that "cold front" from.

[us89]

Shear and helicity associated with that warm front are driving some severe storm activity in the Miami area. Tornado warning for Fort Lauderdale as I type this

[Aric Dunn]

Here comes that tug north/reformation under the convection per the HRRR. should be interesting

[Dean4Storms]

No matter how it unfolds according to most of the guidance there's going to be a strong enough gradient to produce TS force winds out over the Gulf and some rough seas, winds along the Coast to possibly 40mph and would not surprise me to see some close to 50mph. There's also that threat of Waterspouts and some moving ashore for a brief period of time as tornadoes.