When will the first tropical wave be introduced?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 24, 2023 4:30 pm

Let's see when will the first wave is introduced. Poll will close for voting on April 30 at 5:30 PM EDT. A reminder to the members that have not have participated yet in our annual S2K Poll to add the set of numbers. That poll closes on May 31 at midnight EDT.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 30, 2023 6:28 am

Time is running out for this poll to remain open as it will close for voting today at 5:30 PM EDT.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:21 am

It doesn't really matter when the NHC decides to identify the "first" wave. I see three of them out there now. One midway between SA and Africa, one just off the coast of Africa, and one inland over Africa. They're too far south and wind shear is too high to be concerned about them.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:It doesn't really matter when the NHC decides to identify the "first" wave. I see three of them out there now. One midway between SA and Africa, one just off the coast of Africa, and one inland over Africa. They're too far south and wind shear is too high to be concerned about them.

Yes agree. The poll is for first wave that is officially introduced. I know there have been a few weak surface troughs or waves.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 30, 2023 5:54 pm

Two options ended tied with 29%. Thanks to the members that participated and we wait and see when NOAA introduce officially the first wave.

May 11-15 - 29%
May 16-20 - 29%

ouragans · #6 Postby **ouragans** » Fri May 05, 2023 7:03 pm

Trinidad & Tobago Weather Center indicate the 1st TW are being tracked. No word in the latest TWD

https://ttweathercenter.com/2023/05/05/ ... -for-2023/

USTropics · #7 Postby **USTropics** » Fri May 05, 2023 7:47 pm

While it hasn't been directly mentioned in the TWD, a tropical wave (embedded in the ITCZ) was included with the 06z surface analysis today. Here is the latest (18z):

Iceresistance · #8 Postby **Iceresistance** » Fri May 05, 2023 8:00 pm

If this is true, whoever voted for May 1st-5th is an absolute legend!

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 05, 2023 8:43 pm

They said tropical wave-like at the 12z discussion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/T ... 051722.txt

A tropical wave-like feature in analyzed along
32W south of 08N. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted on either side of the trough from 01N
to 09N between 21W and 37W.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 06, 2023 7:28 am

Iceresistance wrote:If this is true, whoever voted for May 1st-5th is an absolute legend!

Well, not quite that one legend because officially, we are still waiting for a wave to be introduced. They have to say it, Tropical Wave at .... and then draw the line at the surface graphic with the words tropical wave and is then, when is oficial. The 5 that voted 6-10 are looking good.

AlanSnyder35 · #11 Postby **AlanSnyder35** » Sat May 06, 2023 8:04 am

Iceresistance wrote:If this is true, whoever voted for May 1st-5th is an absolute legend!

That was me i went out on limb on that one lol Do we have any signs of the AEJ starting up ? Because that is when we will likely see our first wave.

LemieT · #12 Postby **LemieT** » Wed May 10, 2023 9:31 am

AlanSnyder35 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:If this is true, whoever voted for May 1st-5th is an absolute legend!

That was me i went out on limb on that one lol Do we have any signs of the AEJ starting up ? Because that is when we will likely see our first wave.

Most of the agencies seem to have a different criteria for defining tropical waves. Here in Barbados (just like Trinidad) we have already noted that feature on the 5th as the first wave of the season. I usually go with the NHC's surface map and by the time the first one comes, our local met-office is usually up to 3 or 4, lol.

As for the AEJ I haven't seen much to indicate it is very active as yet. If it is, it's weak right now.

LemieT · #13 Postby **LemieT** » Wed May 10, 2023 9:54 pm

LemieT wrote:
AlanSnyder35 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:If this is true, whoever voted for May 1st-5th is an absolute legend!

That was me i went out on limb on that one lol Do we have any signs of the AEJ starting up ? Because that is when we will likely see our first wave.

Most of the agencies seem to have a different criteria for defining tropical waves. Here in Barbados (just like Trinidad) we have already noted that feature on the 5th as the first wave of the season. I usually go with the NHC's surface map and by the time the first one comes, our local met-office is usually up to 3 or 4, lol.

As for the AEJ I haven't seen much to indicate it is very active as yet. If it is, it's weak right now.

On our local weather tonight they mentioned a tropical wave at 28W south of 10N. That's #2 for us, and still nothing on the NHC surface map :lol:

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 15, 2023 12:21 pm

8 winners of the option between 11-15.

Iceresistance · #15 Postby **Iceresistance** » Tue May 16, 2023 10:38 am

cycloneye wrote:8 winners of the option between 11-15.

Just one more day and I would have been one of the other 8 who chose 16-20th! :lol: