POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

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Date of 1rst named Atlantic Storm

Poll ended at Wed May 31, 2023 11:27 am

May 21-May 31 _______
12
23%
June 1 - June 15 ______
15
29%
June 15 - June 30 _____
20
38%
July 1 - July 15 _____
2
4%
July 16 - July 31 _____
2
4%
August 1 - August 31 _____
0
No votes
September 1 - September 30 _____
1
2%
"Just ain't happening" _______
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 52

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chaser1
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POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#1 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 21, 2023 10:26 am

Well here we are with the 1st Atlantic TWO for 2023, and with it the inaugural Poll to guess when the 1st Named Tropical Storm will occur (Cycloneye, perhaps you could properly format this poll with a deadline of 5/ 31?)

2023 1st Named Tropical Storm Poll:
Last edited by chaser1 on Sun May 21, 2023 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#2 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 21, 2023 10:28 am

I'll throw down, for June 15 - June 30
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 11:28 am

chaser1 wrote:Well here we are with the 1st Atlantic TWO for 2023, and with it the inaugural Poll to guess when the 1st Named Tropical Storm will occur (Cycloneye, perhaps you could properly format this poll with a deadline of 5/ 31?)

2023 1st Named Tropical Storm Poll:


Done. :D It closes on May 31 at 12:27 PM EDT.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#4 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun May 21, 2023 11:35 am

I also picked June 15 - June 30. I'm thinking this will be a typical El Nino year, with some activity early and late, and a quiet peak season due to shear and subsidence. There could be a rogue major near the peak, but overall below normal activity. It only takes one though.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#5 Postby Old-TimeCane » Sun May 21, 2023 1:09 pm

You left out "January"

But yeah, technically it isn't named.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun May 21, 2023 3:28 pm

I'd flip a coin and guess it will form out of a piece of energy from the western Atlantic system currently northeast of the Bahamas within the next 5-7 days.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#7 Postby tolakram » Mon May 22, 2023 10:47 am

I'm going way long, Sept 1st :)
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 22, 2023 2:02 pm

I think there's a good chance the NHC will name Arlene offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday. No wind threat, just rainfall associated.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 22, 2023 2:40 pm

I do agree with wxman57; the models seem to be somewhat keen on something forming along the SE US Coast by the Memorial Day timeframe. Kind of like an Arthur 2020 system, I suppose. After the weirdo anomaly that 2022 was, perhaps we'll be back with pre-season storms this year :lol:
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#10 Postby chaser1 » Sat May 27, 2023 11:36 am

I'm beginning to have "buyer's remorse" regarding my guess of first named Tropical Storm occurring toward the end of June. At this juncture I'm starting to think that near term development in early Atlantic typical Climo regions where early activity is usually anticipated may be thwarted as a result of increasing upper-level westerlies in the Western Atlantic basin, along with broadly dry mixing as suggested by the GFS mid to long term 300mb - 700 mb Relativity forecast for the GOM & W. Caribbean. Thereafter, warm SST's may eventually aid the development of a few T.D.s in the far east MDR or the sub-tropics but I'm starting to think that vertical wind shear might inhibit breaking that T.D. glass ceiling until well into July (or early August?)
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:56 pm

The 15 that voted June 1-15 are looking at TD 2 poorly organized saying "oh no". :D
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 15 that voted June 1-15 are looking at TD 2 poorly organized saying "oh no". :D

We have two weeks left.
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#13 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:52 pm

Still #winning :cheesy:
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:28 pm

June 1-15 wins!
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:40 pm

I lost (voted June 15-30)...but I don't care. 8-)

HELLO ARLENE!!!!!!!!!!!! :clap:
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#16 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:45 pm

Lost :lol:
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#17 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:58 pm

tolakram wrote:Lost :lol:



Not surprising. :lol:
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:06 pm

Well, it turned out victorious for those 15. :D
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#19 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Jun 03, 2023 2:01 pm

The NHC decided to go with 7 day tropical forecast from 5. 3 days ago they said no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days. Oops
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Re: POLL: Date of 1st Named Atlantic Tropical Storm

#20 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:18 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:The NHC decided to go with 7 day tropical forecast from 5. 3 days ago they said no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days. Oops

Quick spinups of non-tropical origin such as Arlene are often difficult to forecast in advance. Model support on the globals was next to nonexistent; this was another rare instance where the mesoscale models proved reliable in successfully indicating TCG.
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