2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

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2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#1 Postby FireRat » Wed May 24, 2023 2:58 am

Sup guys :)

I finally got around to making the 'oddball' for-fun thread for 2023 similar to the last few years spanning 2020-2022, using the Chinese Zodiac to apply the 12 and 60 year cycles that exist within this astrology and see if it can shed some light on what this season might bring, with still about a week to go before hurricane season begins! This thread is a continuing experiment to see if Chinese Astrology can actually help paint a 'big picture' idea of what a particular season could bring, if indeed there exist 12-year and 60-year zodiacal cycles that extend into the world of tropical cyclones. :wink:

Last year, 2022, was the Year of the Water Tiger and it was quite a tricky one to pin-point number-wise but it sure exhibited a somewhat slowed-down hurricane season combined with a devastating, historic impact on the Florida Peninsula, Hurricane Ian, forever making 2022 memorable for those in the Greater Fort Myers FL area, wow! Severe hurricane impacts on Florida have been a hallmark of several Tiger years past, most notably 1842, 1926, 1950, and 1998 to some extent more recently. 2022 now joins this infamous list, making this past 12-year cycle among the worst for Florida in particular. Elsewhere we did have Fiona causing havoc throughout the Greater Antilles, so despite the near-average number of storms 2022 packed quite a punch with impacts.
- 2023 is the Year of the Water Rabbit, could it bring something different compared to these recent seasons? According to this astral wizard method, the short answer is yes!, and in a nutshell, 2023 could bring a slower season that could still pack a punch with one or two strong hurricanes, and the difference here may be big changes with respect to the storm tracks, putting places like the Greater Antilles (Hispaniola especially), Leewards, Bahamas, Louisiana and the Carolinas in the crosshairs much more than last season. Florida could have a few close calls, but perhaps may get lucky (hopefully). This oddball zodiac cycle experiment also can give an idea about 2023's expected storm numbers. As of May 24 these are my 2023’s potential storm totals:
15/7/3
ACE ~ 125
Now lets take a closer look at this astrology, what the Year of the Rabbit means, and look at what led to these numbers…

The Chinese Zodiac
Image
Chinese Astrology is a bit more complex than most people think, because this ancient astrology system also assigns 5 different elements (Metal, Water, Wood, Fire, Earth) to the yearly animal signs, making for a total of 60 different year combinations! This way 2020 was a Metal Rat year, 2021 a Metal Ox year, 2022 a Water Tiger, and now 2023 is the Water Rabbit year. Each element cycle lasts 2 years. 2024, next year, will be the Wood Dragon year.
Here’s some history on the origin of the zodiac, for those interested, in the link below:
https://depts.washington.edu/triolive/quest/2007/TTQ07030/history.html
This ancient wisdom handed down by the Chinese is thousands of years old, and perhaps, just perhaps, it may also extend into tropical meteorology. :lol:

In a bit more scientific view, perhaps there exist recurring significant weather patterns, happening to some degree, every 12 years / 60 years around the world for some reason, including the tropics. If we take a step back, we could look and say that Chinese Astrology indicates that there are possibly 12-year and 60-year natural cycles at play, and the animal signs only make it easier to point them out. Okie dokey, lets get into the 2023 stuff:

The year 2023 falls within the 12-year cycle the Chinese call the Year of the Rabbit, and the 60-year cycle which is called the Water Rabbit.
Using the 12 year cycle, we'd look at the years 2011, 1999, 1987, 1975, 1963, 1951, 1939, 1927, 1915, 1903, and so on, to get an idea of what 2023 could be like. Interestingly, the seasons in this cycle were generally on the slower side, with significant Cape Verde activity to compensate for the inactivity… more of a “quality vs quantity” type of season with numerous long-track August/September threats from the East and a few Gulf threats that make Hispaniola and Louisiana a bulls eye in particular, while largely sparing Central America and Florida to some extent. Rabbit years tend to be either fairly tame Atlantic seasons, or average seasons with a few high impact hurricanes instead. While these years are on the slower side numbers-wise, they can deliver some surprisingly nasty hurricanes from time to time.

The sexagenary cycle (60 yr) reinforces the thought that 2023 could be a slow, or average season at best, looking at the previous two such years (1963, 1903). Both of those years however, did feature a devastating hurricane that tracked into the Caribbean: Flora in 1963, and a 1903 Hurricane that passed just south of Hispaniola, striking Jamaica and then headed west into the Yucatan (‘it only takes one’ might continue being a theme this year). In my opinion this tells that odds favor Water Rabbit 2023 will likely bring a dangerous hurricane near or over the Central Caribbean islands including Hispaniola, Jamaica or even Puerto Rico or Cuba. The seasons of 1963 & 1903 might prove to be decent analogs, with a chance that this season may be a little busier with similar happenings.

I did the digging around and found the data needed to make a guess at the 2023 season. This is the first of two main parameters that I looked at this time...
The first parameter consists of 1.) the seasonal numbers in Total Tropical Storms/Hurricanes/Majors format (T/H/M) for all 'Rabbit Years' since 1851 and different averages we can find with the data, 2.) the Water Rabbit years alone since 1903, and 3.) the average of the last 11 seasons since the last Rabbit Year, (2011 - 2022). The 3 different aspects of this parameter helped me come up with the experimental outlook for 2023.

PARAMETER 1 -

1.1 - Past Rabbit Year Cycles and their seasonal numbers (T/H/M), dating back to 1851:

1851 - 1950 era:

1855 - 5/4/1
1867 - 9/7/1
1879 - 8/6/2
1891 - 10/7/1
1903 - 10/7/1
1915 - 6/5/3
1927 - 8/4/1
1939 - 6/3/1

*Average of these years = 7.8/5.4/1.4, when rounded = 8/5/1. The number of storms/hurricanes/majors were fairly steady and uniform throughout the seasons of this era. The 8/5/1 is still a fairly decent total storm count for a time when up to 6 storms may have been missed each year, according to the NHC's Christopher Landsea (reference, "Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900"). There is overall a fairly average number of hurricanes for the time period, and a slightly below-average major hurricane number too, BUT the few major hurricanes were very significant such as the 1915 GOM hurricanes, the 1867 Puerto Rico Hurricane and the 1903 Caribbean Cruiser. Rabbit years may be calmer, but are not to be underestimated when it comes to their biggies! This older average simply helps us see how these years tended to behave, and it seems they are fairly uniform. The more recent averages that come next will actually help with calculating the possible 2023 numbers. Lets see if the more recent Rabbit years were any different:

1950 - present era:

1951 – 12/8/3
1963 - 10/7/3
1975 - 9/6/3
1987 - 7/3/1
1999 - 12/8/5
2011 - 19/7/4

Average of these years = 11.5/6.5/3.2, when rounded = 12/7/3. This is actually a bit higher than the known 9.6/5.9/2.3 average for all seasons from 1950 to 2000, except for that Major Hurricane count. The 1951, 1999 and 2011 seasons did skew the numbers somewhat, and actually also do highlight something about Rabbit years… that the Earth Rabbit (1999) and Metal Rabbit (1951, 2011) years tend to be the most active ones of this cycle. 2023 Water Rabbit year may be quieter than these past two 1999/2011 Rabbit seasons.

1.2 - Water Rabbit 60 Year Cycle and the seasonal numbers (T/H/M), dating back to 1903:

Switching gears a bit, this is now the Water Rabbit year average, taking only 1903 and 1963 into account because of a lack of data in the years 1843, 1783, 1723 and so on. The prior seasons weren’t active and/or destructive enough to get reliable number records, so we only look at the last two Water Rabbits. The years 1903 and 1963 are within the 1851-present database too, and these two seasons were actually strikingly similar, ‘slow yet destructive’ was the theme.
1903 - 10/7/1
1963 - 10/7/3
Average = 10/7/2 with no rounding necessary. This is about on par with the old 1950 - 2000 average of 9.6/5.9/2.3 on all storm/hurricane/major counts. 2023 could have a lower number of named storms and hurricanes/majors if this Water Rabbit average verifies. This right here would perhaps be the most “optimistic” case for this season, number-wise. It is important to note however that the AMO was not the same in 1903/1963 as it is now, so there is a chance that 2023 could be a busier version of these two, but probably not by much. Both 1903/1963 still do make good analogs for 2023, especially with regards to tracks and the theme of ‘average season with one potential severe hurricane’. Keep in mind both 1903 and especially 1963 had one extreme-impact hurricane. Hurricane Flora in 1963 killed over 7,000 people, definitely slow does not equal inconsequential!!

1.3 - The New Seasonal Average since the last Rabbit Year, 2011:

Times are changing however, and it's possible to catch more named storms with current methods than ever before. The newest 30-year average from 1991-2020 is: 14.4/7.2/3.2. Higher than the previous averages to say the least.
In fact, in order to attempt to guess at how many 2023 will bring, it could be an even better idea to also look at the seasons since 2011, which was the previous Rabbit Year and also around the time that modern technology helped us detect even more named storms;
the 2011-2022 seasons which went like this:
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 14/2/0
2014: 8/6/2
2015: 11/4/2
2016: 15/7/4
2017: 17/10/6
2018: 15/8/2
2019: 18/6/3
2020: 30/14/7
2021: 21/7/4
2022: 14/8/2

2011 - 2022 Average: 16.8/7.4/3.2 = 17/7/3. This to me is perhaps the average we should compare to this season and past Rabbit Year hurricane seasons.

*Combining the 3 parts of the parameter above, we have a situation in which 2023 represents a balance between the slower Water Rabbit years against the recent average of the last 11 years, combined with the average of all other Rabbit years, leading to this outlook below:

Outlook: 2023 - 15/7/3
ACE Range = 105-125
Numbers like these say 2023 might be in the league of these 5 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons ... 1951, 1963, 2016, 2018, 2022. Out of these seasons, 1963 & 2022 are perhaps the closest representation of what 2023 may bring, number-wise, with those seasons having 10/7/3 and 14/8/2 respectively. The 2023 Hurricane Season may dish out fewer named storms, but will likely still produce one nasty hurricane. The takeaway is that one or even 2 of this year’s majors will perhaps be very memorable and go to show that it really ‘only takes one’, which may be the theme of the season. 2023 presents yet another intriguing and different take using this oddball method so far! Lets see how it goes…

Calculations that led to this estimate:
1) Water Rabbit avg (1903, 1963) = (10/7/1) + (10/7/3) / 2 = 10/7/2.
This would be the best case scenario numbers for 2023, although it is a fairly simple calculation.
2) Water Rabbit avg (1903, 1963) + (1991 – 2020 avg) / 2 = Reasonable likely 2023 outcome based on the average of the past 2 Water Rabbit years.
(10/7/2) + (14.4/7.2/3.2) / 2 = 12.2/7.1/2.6 = 12/7/3. This is a reasonable, and perhaps the more likely outcome for 2023.
3) - 1950 – 2000 avg Compared with the busier Rabbit year Average 1951 – 2011, Multiplied by 1991 – 2020 Avg = Possible worst 2023 outcome based on old & new ratios:
- Rabbit Year Avg (1951 – 2011) = 11.5/6.5/3.2; 1950-2000 Avg = 9.6/5.9/2.3 = this yields 1951-2011 Rabbit Year percentages VS the 1950-2000 normal = (11.5, 6.5, 3.2) / (9.6, 5.9, 2.3) X 100 = 119.8%/110.2%/139.1%.
- 1991 - 2020 Avg = 14.4/7.2/3.2
Math = The 1951-2011 Rabbit Year percentages VS the 1950-2000 normal (119.8%/110.2%/139.1%) X 1991 – 2020 Avg (14.4/7.2/3.2) = 17.3/7.9/4.4 = 17/8/4. This is also a reasonable, yet worst case outcome for 2023 due to the years 1951, 1999 & 2011 skewing the averages upward a bit.

*Average the Three Calculations for a 2023 approximation*...
Math = (10/7/2) + (12/7/3) + (17/8/4) / 3 = 13/7.3/3 = 13/7/3.
13/7/3 seems like a good estimate for 2023, which would be somewhat lower than the most recent 2011-2022 average when it comes to named storms, but with average hurricane and major hurricane count. A short-lived satellite era named storm or two (including January’s storm) could push the numbers to something like 15/7/3, so this would be the best numbers guess. A “quality vs quantity” season is likely this year IMO.
Now that you guys saw my prediction numbers for 2023 based on parameter 1, lets have a look at Parameter 2, the one that may shed some light on who may get hit by 2023's big ones and maybe even when...

PARAMETER 2 -
Significant (Cat 2+) 100 mph+ Landfalls / Impacts during the Rabbit Year Cycle:
Lets take a look back 300 years if possible for a little more accuracy, like we did for the other oddball threads.
Before 1851:
The very old “prehistoric” era featured some nasty hurricanes, although not too frequently. During this era (going back to 1711 to keep in line with a 300 year record) the notable hurricanes, noting their worst estimated landfall intensities, are as follows: C2 Sep 1783 South Carolina Hurricane, C2 Aug 1795 North Carolina Hurricane, C3/C4 Jul 1819 Louisiana Hurricane, C4/C5 Aug 1831 Caribbean Hurricane that raged across the Leewards and into the Caribbean en route to Hispaniola, and the C2 Sep 1843 Florida Hurricane which wrecked Port Leon, FL in the Big Bend region.

1851 - 1950:
The older part of the recorded database seasons had some notable storms as well. The notable ones during this period, noting their worst landfall intensities, are: C2 Aug 1855 Mexico Hurricane and C3 Sep 1855 Louisiana Hurricane, C2 Oct 1867 GOM Hurricane and C3 Oct 1867 San Narciso Hurricane that devastated the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, C2 Aug 1879 Texas/Louisiana Hurricane and C3 Aug 1879 North Carolina Hurricane and yet again C3 Sep 1879 Louisiana Hurricane, C3 Aug 1891 Leewards Hurricane Caribbean Cruiser, C3 Aug 1903 Caribbean Cruiser which struck Jamaica, the devastating C4 Aug 1915 Galveston Hurricane and C3 Sep 1915 Louisiana Hurricane, and the C2 Aug 1927 Nova Scotia Hurricane.

1951 - Present:
The more recent Rabbit years since 1951 have also brought their fair share of impactful hurricanes, including some of the bigger storms of recent memory and even one of the deadliest ever. The notable hurricanes during this period, noting their worst landfall intensities, are: C3 Aug 1951 Hurricane Charlie which decimated Jamaica as a high-end Cat 3, C4 Sep-Oct 1963 Hurricane Flora which killed over 7,000 people across the Caribbean, especially in Hispaniola and Cuba, making it one of the deadliest hurricanes ever, C3 Sep 1975 Hurricane Eloise which hit the FL Panhandle, C3 Sep 1987 Hurricane Emily which struck Hispaniola, C3 Aug 1999 Hurricane Bret and C4 Sep 1999 Hurricane Floyd as well as C4 Nov 1999 Hurricane Lenny, and C3 Aug 2011 Hurricane Irene which battered the Bahamas and the East US Coast afterwards.

The Rabbit Years and Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls:

Image
Notice how certain areas like the Western Greater Antilles, especially Hispaniola, and Leeward Islands, as well as Louisiana and the Carolinas are more common targets during these years, with places like the Bahamas, other parts of the northern GOM coast, Caribbean and Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands are secondary targets. The Year of the Rabbit seems to favor strong storms heading down the middle path affecting much of the Islands as well as having some of these storms become Caribbean cruisers before the paths diverge around Florida either to the west or northeast, largely sparing the Sunshine state except for the Panhandle. This can be quite a close-call type of year for Peninsular Florida however, with many near-misses like Floyd 1999 for example. These years have brought Category 1 storms to the FL peninsula however, so the luck has only been regarding majors during these seasons, and it is not guaranteed that 2023 will again spare Peninsular FL from a major hurricane, but at least there is some hope for good luck there. Hispaniola on the contrary, seems to have some ugly odds of being severely impacted this year. Overall this wizardry says 2023 may be much different than 2022 with regards to storm tracks and the timing of these storms. The season could very well be fairly average or even slower than average, but it looks like we could see a significant storm as early as August. A second major could happen between September and October.

Significant 100 MPH+ Landfalling Hurricanes per Rabbit Year since 1851:

1855/1, 1867/2, 1879/3, 1891/1, 1903/1, 1915/2, 1927/1, 1939/0, 1951/1, 1963/1, 1975/1, 1987/1, 1999/3, 2011/1.
Average # of significant landfalling hurricanes per Rabbit Year = 19/14 yrs = 1.36.
This is a fairly steady average, which shows that Most of these years are likely to at least have one significant hurricane landfall involving a storm with winds of 100 mph or greater. Despite being on the slower side, the year of the Rabbit is not one to sleep on as we could easily get one big hurricane strike. It seems the saying “it only takes one” could be 2023’s theme much like in previous seasons like this. The years 1879 and 1999 seem more like outliers, and could indicate that Earth Rabbit years are somewhat busier, so this Water Rabbit season may be more like the previous Water Rabbit years 1963 or 1903, or the years 1987 & 1975 as well. The Active/Inactive era doesn’t seem to sway these seasons much, if at all, oddly enough.

I think all that you’ve read up to this point, adds some credence to a slower but still somewhat impactful season. This is how I think 2023 could end up being, and considering the parameters 1 and 2 mentioned in this parent post, here goes the crazy experimental prediction:

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction:

2023 ends up with 15 named storms, 7 of which become hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The total number of storms includes the January system… so I’m guessing we get to the ‘N’ name or maybe just the ‘M’. There are 3 possible scenarios based on the history of Rabbit Years that could end up being the main highlights of the season impact-wise. To be clear, we should not expect all three scenarios to play out this year, but perhaps 1 to 2 of them could. The 3 Possible Scenarios for 2023 are as follows:

1.) Approx. between August 1 – September 1… There could be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane that passes through the southern or central lesser Antilles and cruises the Caribbean until coming near or over Jamaica and then heading into the Yucatan or into the GOM from where it may go towards the northern/western GOM coast. This would be like a mix of the Aug 1903 hurricane with one of the 1915 storms.

2.) Approx. August 25 – September 25… A strong hurricane, possibly Cat 3-4, could take a 1999 Floyd-like path and strike the Bahamas and curve into the Carolinas, while giving Florida a scare. This storm could also resemble Irene of 2011. The hurricane could be quite destructive too, and be long-lived.

3.) Approx. between August 25 – October 25… This would be the worst-case scenario for 2023… basically a 1963 Flora repeat. We could see a Major Cat 4 storm cross the Leewards or Puerto Rico area and head right for Hispaniola, sort of like either 1963 Flora did or the 1867 Puerto Rico event if it happens later in October. Hispaniola would be the main target and get hit quite hard, where large loss of life could happen if precautions aren’t taken properly. The storm would weaken after landfalling in Hispaniola and then meander over Cuba before moving northeast over the Bahamas towards Bermuda, possibly as a low-end hurricane.

~ The following map outlook shows which areas may get hurricane threats or hits in 2023 based on all this stuff:

2023 Hurricane Watch Areas, Based on the History of Rabbit-Year Cycle:

Image

2023 could offer a fairly unique type of season that we haven’t seen in some time, especially with regards to tracks and a possible mix of a slow season with a significant impact storm, so unlikely to be a “nothing burger”. Heads up just in case my crazy crystal ball ends up being close to reality!

Alright guys, all that which you've read is just my 2 cents, so please take all of the above with a grain of salt. As I’ve mentioned before, This thread is experimental and probably geared more towards amusement rather than serious predictions, so take this as my disclaimer. The future conditions of the Atlantic, i.e. the SST's, ENSO, Teleconnections, MDR favorability, SAL and other meteorological indicators/factors will have the ultimate say in how the season goes, and these factors could change as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

Let’s see how 2023 evolves over the next few months, it should be fun and exciting to watch and see if this esoteric stuff has any real meaning to the hurricane season once again.
Feel free to ask me questions or write whatever you wish here! We can track 2023 here too, and I’ll
try to keep this thread alive by posting updates, other experimental takes, visuals, and such whenever possible!

-FR :wink:
5/24/2023
Last edited by FireRat on Wed May 24, 2023 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#2 Postby Chris90 » Wed May 24, 2023 2:00 pm

I've been waiting for this year's Chinese zodiac prediction from you. I was going to PM you the other night to ask about it, but then I fell asleep and forgot. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#3 Postby FireRat » Wed May 24, 2023 2:42 pm

Chris90 wrote:I've been waiting for this year's Chinese zodiac prediction from you. I was going to PM you the other night to ask about it, but then I fell asleep and forgot. :lol:


lol :lol: :lol:
I had a feeling you might write me sooner or later, took some time to get around to making this year's thread. Glad to hear from you man!
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#4 Postby Kalrany » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:50 am

You have said you have done this for other years? Can you possibly link to those posts? And, from your perspective, how well did the predictions match up?
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#5 Postby FireRat » Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:34 am

Kalrany wrote:You have said you have done this for other years? Can you possibly link to those posts? And, from your perspective, how well did the predictions match up?


Hi Kalrany! yep did this since 2020, here's the links to each of these past seasons...

2022: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122557

2021: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121988

2020: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120841

Honestly the predictions weren't perfect but they did come close on quite a few aspects, especially relating to the general tracks and "themes" of the seasons more so than the actual number of storms predicted.
2022 fell short on the numbers but did deliver the blockbuster storm Ian, and Florida did not get lucky like seasons past.
2021 had Ida strike relatively close to where 1961 Carla hit and was overall a front loaded season that slowed down quick.
2020 was pure insanity, more that could have been imagined! The season did have a penchant for the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean... similar to 1780 but not exact, and the 30 Named Storms was just nuts. 2020 did have a record breaking late season Fall, with Late October and November being ridiculously busy, which was something that was wondered about for that particular year.

It was cool to try making these guesses based on the Chinese Zodiac cycle and see at least some correlations! Could be simply coincidence but the thought that this could be something more is frankly fascinating. Lets see if 2023 turns out similarly
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#6 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 03, 2023 8:52 pm

Getting some Floyd '99 vibes with 95L, especially with the similar dates and potentially similar track too. This season sure has been quite interesting so far! Franklin and Idalia have defined the season thus far, could Lee or Margot be next?
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#7 Postby FireRat » Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:43 pm

Invest 94 and recent model runs are giving me Flora 1963 vibes, bears watching!

Flora struck Hispaniola in early October that year. Hopefully whatever comes out of this storm is nowhere near as intense as that monster was 60 years ago. All eyes on the Caribbean. What a bizarre season.
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Re: 2023 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#8 Postby FireRat » Fri Nov 10, 2023 3:08 am

If we get something like Lenny '99 to round out this year, I'll be a monkey's uncle!
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