Low Pressure Inland over the SE U.S.

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cycloneye
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Low Pressure Inland over the SE U.S.

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 12:38 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form along a
front offshore of the southeastern United States coast during the
next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a subtropical
or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain frontal while
moving generally northward and inland over the Carolinas this
weekend.

Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States coast late this week and into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas,
and hazardous marine conditions are expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale watches and warnings are in effect. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#2 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Wed May 24, 2023 12:57 pm

Don't know why they marked it. Supposed to stay Frontal the whole time.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#3 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed May 24, 2023 1:14 pm

AlanSnyder35 wrote:Don't know why they marked it. Supposed to stay Frontal the whole time.


This is a common location and mechanism for S/TC development at this time of year. They're probably covering themselves just in case something surprising happens with it.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#4 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 24, 2023 1:24 pm

The temperature forecast valid 18Z Saturday from the 12Z GFS sure indicates a frontal low. Look at the temps in the low 50s in SC and 70s behind the warm front in NC.

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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#5 Postby GCANE » Wed May 24, 2023 1:39 pm

GFS and EURO initialize as a warm-core
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 6:36 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form along a
frontal boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain
frontal while moving generally northward and inland over the
Carolinas this weekend.

Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States coast late this week and into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas,
and hazardous marine conditions are expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale watches and warnings are in effect. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm

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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#8 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 25, 2023 7:48 am

It's pretty clear that this will be a frontal low. If NHC thought otherwise, then they'd raise classification chances. Cold rain and wind for the beaches this holiday weekend. Not a great start to the summer season.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#9 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu May 25, 2023 10:18 am

This one certainly is extratropical. Nino years have a tendency to produce tropical home brew early and late in the season. This is not legit tropical home brew this time, but I would not be surprised to see some in the next month or two.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#10 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu May 25, 2023 10:32 am

wxman57 wrote:The temperature forecast valid 18Z Saturday from the 12Z GFS sure indicates a frontal low. Look at the temps in the low 50s in SC and 70s behind the warm front in NC.

http://wxman57.com/images/SELow.JPG

Here in Atlanta...we call this "The Wedge" as cooler air from the NE dams up against the mountains.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#11 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 25, 2023 10:56 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The temperature forecast valid 18Z Saturday from the 12Z GFS sure indicates a frontal low. Look at the temps in the low 50s in SC and 70s behind the warm front in NC.

http://wxman57.com/images/SELow.JPG

Here in Atlanta...we call this "The Wedge" as cooler air from the NE dams up against the mountains.


That wedge in combination with this offshore low will keep it well BN here along the GA coast through the weekend with dewpoints mainly in the 50s, which started yesterday. Our mid 60s highs forecasted for Saturday would be new record low highs beating 68, which was set in another oncoming El Niño year (1972).
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2023 12:33 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of the
southeastern United States are associated with a front and trough
of low pressure. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected
to form along the frontal boundary within the next day or so. The
system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
since it is forecast to remain frontal while moving generally
northward and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.

Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas with
hazardous marine conditions expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale warnings are in effect. For more
information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#13 Postby TallyTracker » Thu May 25, 2023 12:36 pm

Even down here in Tallahassee, we are forecast to get down to 56 Saturday night. That’s near record lows for the date! I agree that this is not shaping up to be a tropical system.
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Re: Low Pressure to Develop off the SE U.S Coast

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 26, 2023 6:36 pm

0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
off the coast of northeastern Florida continues to produce gusty
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the southeastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean. This low
is expected to remain a frontal system while it moves northward and
inland over the Carolinas Saturday night or early Sunday.

Even though development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
not expected, the system will continue producing gusty winds, and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is
expected in portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next
couple of days. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected over
the coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in
effect. For more information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#15 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat May 27, 2023 8:01 am

Here it is at sunrise today.

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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#16 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 27, 2023 9:43 am

Surface air temps are in the middle to upper 50s along the SC/NC coasts.
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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#17 Postby LarryWx » Sat May 27, 2023 10:20 am

This area (SAV) has today gotten much more rain than expected yesterday with ~2" already fallen so far vs <1/2" progged then for the entire day! We even had thunder recently, which hadn't been expected. Temps have been in the chilly mid 50s with N wind gusts into the 30s. Nothing tropical about this! The 24 hour high is likely going to be the 12:01 AM's 63, which would be 5 below the 1972 record low high of 68! Normal high is 87.

 The walks the last few evenings have been fabulous for this time of year with dewpoints way down in the high 40s (last evening) to high 50s.
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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#18 Postby xironman » Sat May 27, 2023 10:31 am

So is the NHC using the Jedi mind trick? "This is not the sub tropical storm you were looking for"
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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#19 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat May 27, 2023 11:12 am

It has actually brought a lovely day to the Atlanta Metro. Northerly winds are a bit brisk, but temps in the low 70's and sunshine. It doesn't get much better than that. I might actually get some yard work done without melting (maybe) :lol:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Re: Low Pressure off the SE U.S Coast

#20 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat May 27, 2023 12:27 pm

It's looking good but still firmly attached to the front sadly.

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