Surface Trough in the Central GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the
next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system
could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[Nimbus]

Earlier discussion from the 16 day outlook suggested dry shear may keep the precipitation totals down but West coast of Florida could use 3" of rain.

[ChrisH-UK]

One of the problems with these small quick popup systems is that the big global models like GFS, ECMWF etc is the scale and update rate can miss a system, as they have done many times before. Sometimes the meso scale models like NAM and HRR can provide a insight to a storm or potential storm with it's higher resolution and higher frame rate can show more than the bigger models.

[JetFuel_SE]

One of the problems with these small quick popup systems is that the big global models like GFS, ECMWF etc is the scale and update rate can miss a system, as they have done many times before. Sometimes the meso scale models like NAM and HRR can provide a insight to a storm or potential storm with it's higher resolution and higher frame rate can show more than the bigger models.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2856/BH90zD.gif [/url]

Indeed.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't ever put any faith in a NAM prediction in the tropics. This disturbance will likely track east across Florida and strengthen west of Bermuda by late this weekend or early next week. The low next Monday looks quite frontal in the 12Z EC. Not too different from last weekend's low. This one is heading out to sea, though. Hopefully there will be no cruise ship in the vicinity this time. By the way, both the GFS & the EC have 50+ kts of westerly wind shear across the Gulf this week into next week.

[JetFuel_SE]

I wouldn't ever put any faith in a NAM prediction in the tropics. This disturbance will likely track east across Florida and strengthen west of Bermuda by late this weekend or early next week. The low next Monday looks quite frontal in the 12Z EC. Not too different from last weekend's low. This one is heading out to sea, though. Hopefully there will be no cruise ship in the vicinity this time. By the way, both the GFS & the EC have 50+ kts of westerly wind shear across the Gulf this week into next week.

The issue is global models don't do well with systems like this one, as the resolution is often too low to really pick up everything.

[ronjon]

12Z EURO gets the low pressure down to 1002 mb in the SE GOM early Saturday morning. It then crosses S FL into the Atlantic and deepens to 997 mb storm. Could be our first named storm in the Atlantic.

[MGC]

Something to watch. Doubt it organizes until disturbance crosses Florida and into Atlantic. Still easterly winds at the surface in EGOM.....MGC

[Tailgater33]

Yep a good many models are showing a loop in the the NE GOM. then crossing the peninsula and out to sea. Hoping I can get a at least one shower out of it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the
next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system
could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven/Kelly

[AtlanticWind]

Strong storms tonight here in S. Fla. Looks like this system will give us significant rainfall this week.

[weeniepatrol]

00Z TWD:

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico, with
unstable conditions and rising motion generally E of 90W. At the
surface, a weakening frontal trough extends through the Straits of
Florida to near 25.5N86W, where a surface low appears to be
attempting to develop. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds
prevail across much of the Gulf N of the trough and the developing
low, and spread westward to near 92W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen between the W end of the trough and SE
Louisiana, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm either side of the trough through the Straits of
Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of the trough and area of developing
low between 86W and 92W. Light to gentle N to NW winds prevail
elsewhere to the SW of this activity, where isolated moderate
convection dots the waters. Seas across the SW Gulf are 2 ft or
less.

A surface trough or surface low pressure could form over the
south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight or Wed and potentially
linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri. Moderate winds are forecast
in the area, but there is a chance that the trough or low could
produce fresh to strong winds later this week. Enhanced showers
and thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern half of the
Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high
pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend,
with occasional pulses of fresh NE winds along the W coast of
Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

He is not dismissing the NAM.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1663914561978748930

[wxman57]

I wouldn't ever put any faith in a NAM prediction in the tropics. This disturbance will likely track east across Florida and strengthen west of Bermuda by late this weekend or early next week. The low next Monday looks quite frontal in the 12Z EC. Not too different from last weekend's low. This one is heading out to sea, though. Hopefully there will be no cruise ship in the vicinity this time. By the way, both the GFS & the EC have 50+ kts of westerly wind shear across the Gulf this week into next week.

The issue is global models don't do well with systems like this one, as the resolution is often too low to really pick up everything.

The issue with the mesoscale models is that they're never good to use for tropical cyclones. 12Z NAM has a hurricane near SE LA tomorrow evening (988mb). Not likely.

[zzzh]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR FLORIDA GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 01/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1745Z
D. 27.5N 87.0W
E. 01/1830Z TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 02/1015Z
D. 27.3N 87.0W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[GCANE]

Convection firing in a shear gradient and a 4000 CAPE ridge.
200 mb vort slowly dropping.
Got some juice and potential for a spin up.

[AJC3]

He is not dismissing the NAM.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1663914561978748930

He also thought the frontal low off the Carolinas should have been named. Take his opinion with a boulder of salt.

[cycloneye]

20/20.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms
displaced to its northeast. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or
two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]