Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[Blown Away]

If GFS/EURO are correct the Atlantic MDR will have a solid Cat 1/2 by @55W next week. Moving into uncharted hurricane history.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Strong system turns N before Caribbean and weak system goes WNW.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Elsa became a TS on July 1.

Thanks for the correction. I saw a track map at the link below with it suggesting to me that it reached TS intensity as of 0Z on July 1st, which would have still been late evening June 30th in its location. However, after your correction, I saw the advisories, which didn't have it upgraded til 5AM AST/09Z on July 1st. So, not Elsa during June.

Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png

1979 had Ana become a TS on 06/22 at 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/I1zpSr1.png

Thanks as I totally missed Ana. And so did this map of 1851-2015 June 11th-20th formations, which has no TCs forming east of the Caribbean. It first became a TD on June 19th:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_11_20.png

So, assuming I now have this right, the earliest TS designations east of the Caribbean in the tropical Atlantic are Bret of 2017 (June 19th), Ana of 1979 (June 22nd), and 1933 (June 24th or 25th).

[USTropics]

Short term evolution will have long term track implications. We can start to see on 850mb vort signature analysis two distinct lobes have formed:


How these two vort lobes interact will be key, with the likely scenario of the SW lobe pivoting towards the NE before some type of merger. This could slow down the track of the wave axis/consolidation:


You can see this evolution in the latest ECMWF run and in Blown Aways ensemble run above:

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.

[AnnularCane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]

12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.

Is it me or does that map look awfully "busy" for the end of June?

[InfernoFlameCat]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]

12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.

Is it me or does that map look awfully "busy" for the end of June?

Looks normal to me, for mid august .
That is a concerning look. A number of them do make a US landfall.

[USTropics]

Really good agreement between our best two models on consolidation of the 850mb vort and the evolution over the next 3 days. This is a very common development of AEWs in the eastern Atlantic, I would put development chances in the 90 percentile.

[Teban54]

18z GFS already trending significantly stronger. Trend GIF:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS HP is farther W in this run, may make a run on the islands??

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS sure would rack up a lot of ACE points.

[Emmett_Brown]

Models want to develop this quickly, perhaps if development is delayed a bit, model tracks might shift a bit closer to the islands in future runs. The 12Z Euro shifted west a bit.

[aspen]

Happy Hour GFS has a hurricane in just 4-5 days. If this pans out, it’ll be unprecedented for an El Niño year AFAIK.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is sure ramping up the strength on this one, so far low as 957mb. It is starting a recurve here though. A major hurricane in the MDR in June wasn't on my bingo card.

[IcyTundra]

Models want to develop this quickly, perhaps if development is delayed a bit, model tracks might shift a bit closer to the islands in future runs. The 12Z Euro shifted west a bit.

18Z GFS has also shifted south and west. Islands still very much in play.

[zzzh]

Only Trinidad Hurricane reached HU status in MDR in June. We all know what happened in 1933...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Of note, while early season development is not usually a sign of an active season, early season MDR development -- especially if this becomes a hurricane -- almost always is a sign.

Hurricane Bertha in 2008 is the closest analog I can think of right now.

Seasons that had a storm form east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1989   135.1
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1964   153
1963   112.1
1961   188.9
1933   258.6
1926   229.6
1916   144
1901   99
1887   181.3
AVG ACE   160.3217391

Wow, average ACE of 160. Good deep dive.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS, trough much weaker.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS. Trending W past few runs.