Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 93L)

[ElectricStorm]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south
of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave that
recently emerged off the coast of Africa. While this activity is
currently disorganized, some slow development of this system is
possible through the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent

[Hurricane2022]

HAFS-B 12Z run shows it becoming Hurricane Cindy on June 22

[AnnularCane]

It's so close to 92L though...

[NotSparta]

Ah yes, another wave to watch, this is the most normal June ever

[AtlanticWind]

I knew I slept late but I didnnt think I slept till August

[Hammy]

When's the last time, if ever, that we've seen two MDR areas of interest in June, let alone at the same time?

[aspen]

This isn’t the first time a trailing wave to a developing early-season MDR storm had a shot at developing. I remember there was one behind Elsa back in 2021, and maybe Bonnie too. The one behind Elsa was probably killed by the ahead storm’s influence, so when 92L becomes a TS or hurricane, it’ll probably prevent this from developing.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, this is just genuinely remarkable. Clearly, I think the extraordinarily warm sst anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and the dearth of EPAC activity currently thanks to the -PMM/-PDO are really helping the Atlantic exhibit such robust, early season CV disturbances. I recall how there were some individuals very early on in this season who questioned if the super warm Atlantic could do anything to help in the midst of El Nino; it looks like the answer may very well be indeed "yes."

[Hurricane2022]

HAFS-B 12Z run shows it becoming Hurricane Cindy on June 22
https://imageshack.com/i/poGjsGtEg
https://imageshack.com/i/pnO1E0ubp

Now at 18Z it's barely a TD

[cycloneye]

00z GFS develops this wave but is absorbed by 92L/Bret.

[LarryWx]

This isn’t the first time a trailing wave to a developing early-season MDR storm had a shot at developing. I remember there was one behind Elsa back in 2021, and maybe Bonnie too. The one behind Elsa was probably killed by the ahead storm’s influence, so when 92L becomes a TS or hurricane, it’ll probably prevent this from developing.

Good memory! In 2022 there was the wave that later became Bonnie and the wave ~750 miles to its east. As of this TWO of 6/27/22, the waves were near 45W and 35W. Many folks were amazed at how active late June was and what that portended for the rest of the season. The last thing they expected was the two months of very dry AEWs that immediately followed:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_ ... 2206270619

TWO with satellite pic of active Atlantic 6/27/22:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_ ... lc&fdays=2

[ouragans]

Up 20/30

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible
through the middle and latter parts of this week as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[aspen]

06z GFS has dual June MDR Cat 1s in 5 days. The rest of the models show a much weaker storm from the 20/30 wave.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few
days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up