Non-tropical low forecast to form in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 94L)

[Extratropical94]

A non-tropical low might form over the central Atlantic in a couple days and could transition into a subtropical cyclone.

1. Central Atlantic:
A non-tropical low is expected to form in a couple of days a few
hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This system could
gradually acquire subtropical characteristics toward the end of the
week while it drifts southeastward over the central Atlantic. The
low is expected to turn northward next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Has some decent support from GFS

[gatorcane]

The GFS nearly hits the Azores on the 06Z run. The Azores were one of my target areas for this hurricane season given the above normal SSTs south of there.

[cycloneye]

Central Atlantic:
A non-tropical low is expected to form in a couple of days a few
hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This system could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the middle to latter
portions of this week while it drifts southeastward. By next
weekend, the low is expected to turn northward bringing the system
over cooler waters and ending its chances of subtropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[wxman57]

Good model support for some type of low developing. The vorticity is now just west of Bermuda. Just a minor shipping concern.

[wxman57]

I'd give it a 100% chance of a closed low developing within 48 hrs, peaking on Thursday with maybe 45kt wind, then weakening as it moves slowly northward over cooler water. Only question is NHC classification. I'd give it a 70% chance that the NHC will call it subtropical or tropical by Wednesday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development,
and the system could become a subtropical or tropical depression
during the next few days while it moves generally eastward. By the
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development,
and the system could become a subtropical or tropical depression
during the next few days while it moves generally eastward. By the
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Per my recollection of recent years, either the NHC tends to underplay these subtropical lows regarding subtropical tropical genesis in the TWO percent chances and/or they tend to "over-perform". Thus, considering this, being that about all models for several runs have had a pretty strong low forming within a few days, being that SSTs are near a warm enough 26C, and with "57" going very bullish, I'm going with a much higher chance than the NHC's 40% chance for a STD or TD to form from this. I think the NHC is playing catch-up as they had no chance mentioned as recently as Saturday night.

[ElectricStorm]

Might be an invest soon

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is currently
located a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. An
area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this area in the
next day or so, and environmental conditions are then forecast to be
marginally conducive for further development. A subtropical or
tropical depression could form during the latter part of this week
as the system moves generally eastward. By the weekend, the low
should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters, likely
limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical
depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the system moves
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward
bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up