#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:48 pm
tiger_deF wrote:While I am expecting this system or the moisture associated with it to go south of the greater Antilles, the modelled environment in the open Atlantic north of the islands is quite problematic. If the wave develops early and sneaks up there, it will have a fantastic upper-air environment and anomalously warm waters + OHC. The GFS runs that moved a developed system North of the islands bombed it out into an intense (and quite large) hurricane. As long as this scenario is avoided, I think that it will be shredded by the graveyard as modelled.
While extremely unlikely in this case, we saw this scenario happen in real time back in 2019, when a certain storm did that and became a very destructive Category 5 hurricane.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.