Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Being so many days out I don’t like these slight westward shifts on the gfs. One thing is looking Probable is that conditions could be ripe past 70W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible later this week and into the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

Crap, I'm going to be in DC when this is coming...

Best place to be is the GFS landfall point after 240 hours…

[gatorcane]

The only other model which I see develops this wave is the JMA. Even the GFS ensembles have backed off with basically no development. There is a lot of dry air and an impressive SAL out there still. Remember the GFS once had 95l as a hurricane and was the only model with that solution so be careful when it is an outlier as it is at the moment. The dry air was 95l’s demise.

[Iceresistance]

Crap, I'm going to be in DC when this is coming...

Best place to be is the GFS landfall point after 240 hours…

Yeah, can't cancel the trip, but can always leave earlier than usual

[ElectricStorm]

Until the Euro or CMC (preferably both) start showing development, I'm leaning towards the weaker/no development solutions. GFS has been garbage in the long range year after year and doesn't seem like it's going to change at all this year. So until others start showing something, I'm not very concerned about this wave yet. Late July is still unfavorable for these waves.

That being said, if somehow a storm can get to the area where the GFS shows this taking off, then it could easily blow up into a dangerous hurricane so it's definitely a wait and see game for now, although I think that will come into play later in the season and not necessarily with this particular wave.

[OuterBanker]

I know that the GFS is on drugs. But, it is a bit concerning that it has had some form of east coast runner for 12 runs in a row.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72518&fh=6

[Teban54]

Current ensemble support for the wave:

• 12z GEFS: At least 16 members (52%) show some development, with 8 members showing a hurricane. All recurves before the islands.
• 6z GEFS: 11 members (35%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, with 3 members heading into the Caribbean and dissipating there.
• 0z GEFS: At leats 18 members (58%) show some development, with 11 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, but 2 members take the Mona Passage (both Hs) and hit SE Bahamas; no CONUS threats.
• 6z EPS: At the end of the run (144 hr), at least 28 members (55%) show some development or at least a low.
• 0z EPS: At least 29 members (57%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Almost all are recurves, but one member heads WNW east of the Bahamas.

There may be some undercounting for Euro ensembles, as they're hard to see on the map.

• 18z GEFS: 13 members (62%) show some development, but with only 1 hurricane (though there are 3 Hs from a trailing wave). A lot further west than 12z, with many TS landfalls in LA and even a TS landfall in SE FL.
• 12z EPS: At least 27 members (53%) show some development, with 5-7 hurricanes (some are in the high latitudes so doubtful). Tracks are a lot further E than 0z.
• 18z EPS: At least 26 members (51%) show some development at 144 hr.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 00z CMC is onboard with the GFS... Spins it up and recurves it well east before any impacts. Meanwhile, GFS is flirting with getting it trapped Southeast of Bermuda at around hour 228.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I noticed, at least based on the more recent GFS run, is the quicker this develops, the more likely it'll safely recurve. The previous two runs had this not really develop until after passing over the Lesser Antilles, and as we saw it got dangerously close to the CONUS's Eastern Seaboard.

[Teban54]

Up to 0/30.

2. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible later this week and into the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

By my count, 17 of 31 0Z GEFS (easily most yet) make this a H.

If the GFS suite were to happen to be right about TCG, it's going to a close call as regards whether it would be a July storm or an August storm. I normally go by when it first becomes a TD.

[MHC Tracking]

Crap, I'm going to be in DC when this is coming...

Existing pattern doesn't particularly favor CONUS impacts, however

[Blown Away]

Suspect area for developing LLC @12N/26W, a little SW of the NHC 2am "X" and moving due west.
Seems like a typical eastern Atlantic TW moving due west in the tropical easterlies with little organization.
WNW movement has to start now to be above ~12N/60W in 7 days. It wouldn't surprise me if we see subtle SW cone adjustments by NHC over next few days.

[abajan]

Unchanged formation chances:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located just to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some development of this system is possible later this
week and into the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




6z GFS:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1684170226873651201

[Teban54]

Current ensemble support for the wave:

• 12z GEFS: At least 16 members (52%) show some development, with 8 members showing a hurricane. All recurves before the islands.
• 6z GEFS: 11 members (35%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, with 3 members heading into the Caribbean and dissipating there.
• 0z GEFS: At leats 18 members (58%) show some development, with 11 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, but 2 members take the Mona Passage (both Hs) and hit SE Bahamas; no CONUS threats.
• 6z EPS: At the end of the run (144 hr), at least 28 members (55%) show some development or at least a low.
• 0z EPS: At least 29 members (57%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Almost all are recurves, but one member heads WNW east of the Bahamas.

There may be some undercounting for Euro ensembles, as they're hard to see on the map.

• 18z GEFS: 13 members (62%) show some development, but with only 1 hurricane (though there are 3 Hs from a trailing wave). A lot further west than 12z, with many TS landfalls in LA and even a TS landfall in SE FL.
• 12z EPS: At least 27 members (53%) show some development, with 5-7 hurricanes (some are in the high latitudes so doubtful). Tracks are a lot further E than 0z.
• 18z EPS: At least 26 members (51%) show some development at 144 hr.

0z GEFS was by far the most active, with at least 28 members (90%) show some development, and 17 hurricanes. Almost all are recurves, with one member clipping LA and going through the Bahamas.

6z GEFS is only a tiny bit less active, with at least 25 members (81%) show some development, and 17 hurricanes. One H clips the NC Outer Banks, but otherwise all recuves.

0z EPS was a lot less active than earlier runs, with at least 19 members (37%) show some development, and only 3-4 hurricanes.

However, 6z EPS went back to the earlier levels, with at least 29 members (57%) show some development through 144 hrs.

[SFLcane]

Monday... who knows what it will shows in 7-8 days. Just saying

[Iceresistance]

Crap, I'm going to be in DC when this is coming...

Existing pattern doesn't particularly favor CONUS impacts, however

It's better to be safer because it is still several days away and anything will change.

[jlauderdal]

Monday... who knows what it will shows in 7-8 days. Just saying

https://i.postimg.cc/yNyFckR3/gfs.png

Lake Worth residents wont like the looks of that run