Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

[wxman57]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

[Iceresistance]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

There could be US impact from Storm Surge flooding if the GFS verifies even if there is no direct impact.

[jconsor]

I think the E. Atlantic system has a decent chance for development (I would say 50-60% within 7 days). Don't be fooled by recency bias just because 95L encounted hostile conditions and didn't develop. The atmospheric state has changed substantially in a way that favors development more for this wave than it did for 95L.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684209439560065024




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684214808713854978




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684216357624111106




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684222588279480322




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684224928583761920

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/Afyq3ckvdGg

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC is by far its strongest run yet with an H to the E of Bermuda. This would make 2 storms for July, which would make it above average for all seasons and the 2nd most active July for any El Niño season since 1982.

[gatorcane]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below

[SFLcane]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below

https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png

Huge December like trof..

[Kingarabian]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

CMC now develops it.

[LarryWx]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

CMC now develops it.

I expect a TWO later today and possibly as early as the one soon to be released to be upgraded from lemon to orange for the 7 day.

Based on the GFS/CMC, this would be a July TCG and would make two NS this month. I just checked El Niño seasons even further back than 1982. If this month reaches two storms, it would tie it with 1979, 1887, and 1864 for the 2nd highest # of July storms during the 54 El Niño seasons since 1851 either then present or coming later that season. Only 1997 would be more active with its three storms that formed in July.

[Spacecoast]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below

https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png

12z GEFS trough prob....

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...

Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below

https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png

12z GEFS trough prob....
https://i.ibb.co/ZW1VPVF/ed28.jpg

Nice plot. Essentially a 50% chance of a trough.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1684267826213707777

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.

[jlauderdal]

The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.

Good News on the troughing, its been dominant this season so far. The ridge is building back in the next few days in Florida which has been rare this rainy season.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.

Good News on the troughing, its been dominant this season so far. The ridge is building back in the next few days in Florida which has been rare this rainy season.

Better not be any hurricanes around if not we are going to have some problems.

[Teban54]

Euro caving in to GFS?

[Kingarabian]

I would say development chances are above 50%.

[Nimbus]

Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below

https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png

12z GEFS trough prob....
https://i.ibb.co/ZW1VPVF/ed28.jpg

Nice plot. Essentially a 50% chance of a trough.

50% as far south as North Carolina.
Unless there is a hurricane north of the Bahamas in which case any short wave might dig.
And since as you noted the chance of development is only about 50%..
Will be an interesting week since there is more moisture projected to be in place along the track.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS, turns NE @25N/60W. Pretty aggressive turn to NE at that low latitude.