Weak Low Inland Over SE Georgia (Is Invest 97L)

[hurricanedude]

JB on his twitter is concerned about the area of convection near the Bahamas. He mentions regardless of model support it has a shot of becoming something. Thoughts?

[wxman57]

JB on his twitter is concerned about the area of convection near the Bahamas. He mentions regardless of model support it has a shot of becoming something. Thoughts?

It's not significant. A little rain for north Florida and southern Georgia Fri/Sat, but that's it.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks to be disorganised but that a lot of convection that's due to head across Florida into the gulf.

[LarryWx]

Looks to be disorganised but that a lot of convection that's due to head across Florida into the gulf.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5024/QluHod.gif [/url]

Part of this convection near S FL/Keys lead to a large increase in rainfall and decrease in sunshine (finally) that lead to those buoys with upper 90s to 101F highs just two days ago to plunge to only the 80s for daytime highs today!

[toad strangler]

The Space and Treasure Coasts are in line for some heavy showers today and this evening thanks to this weak tropical wave as are other areas on the peninsula I'm sure.

From the morning forecast disco out of NWS MLB ...

Today-Tonight...The tropical wave will continue to traverse the
south-central FL peninsula as PWATs surge to 2.10-2.40 inches over
most of ECFL. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible today,
especially Space/Treasure coasts, with locally heavy rainfall also
possible later today into Okeechobee/Osceola counties. Some
fairly high amounts for areas that receive multiple rounds of
showery precip and localized 1-3" amounts are not out of the
question, with a location or two up to 4 inches.

[NDG]

Been watching this area for the past few days, a weak surface vortex is now evident on radar, sat & surface observations east of Melbourne/Vero Beach area but should move inland later today or tonight before organizing much further, which is a good thing because it is in an area of low windshear in between two ULLs.

[MGC]

Looks like a sharp trough to me. Will be inland soon. Maybe something could spin-up in the Gulf later. We could use some rain here on the Miss Coast......MGC

[LarryWx]

It is interesting how much cooling of the previously extremely warm shallow water SSTs just south of the FL peninsula resulted from just a weak surface trough since Monday. For example: Johnson Key buoy, which hit 98.2F for Monday's high, was down to only 79.3F for this morning's low SST! See it here for yourself:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... &meas=wtmp

[Jr0d]

It is interesting how much cooling of the previously extremely warm shallow water SSTs just south of the FL peninsula resulted from just a weak surface trough since Monday. For example: Johnson Key buoy, which hit 98.2F for Monday's high, was down to only 79.3F for this morning's low SST! See it here for yourself:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... &meas=wtmp

This is a great relief. Hopefully we get more of these troughs/waves to cool of the water.

This is a shallow water spot. Unfortunately the water near Key West is still around 90°

[tropicwatch]

Not much at the surface, the 925mb and 850mb vorticity not showing much at all.

[Jr0d]

Almost looks like a depression on radar, however the pressure is too high and the winds are nowhere close to supporting this as a system. The highest wind gust I saw was 29 knots, 21 knots sustained at the 20 mile buoy off Cape Canaveral (41009) a few hours ago.

This brings welcome relief to the hot summer for the east coast of Florida but likely will cause another scrub for the Falcon 9 Heavy that is scheduled to launch around 11pm tonight.

[jconsor]

Agreed that pressures are high and this will need some time to "cook" before developing, but it going just inland is not a guarantee against a TD or weak TS developing. We have seen such systems develop even with little model support a few times in the recent past.
There is another brief window for development early next week as it heads back offshore and passes near the Gulf Stream:

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1684657687206694913




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1684674411616456704




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684677308148256769




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684683453424435200

[Landy]

Interesting appearance early this AM.

[LarryWx]

Interesting appearance early this AM.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1134424923293622272/41793196.gif

There is a tight little circulation center (easily seen on radar) just offshore from Amelia Island where SSTs are ~85F moving NNW toward the lower GA coast, but it is more mid level than low level from what I've read. One NWS discussion mentioned that this is in association with the TUTT (see below). Surface pressures are still pretty high (1017 mb+) and surface winds are light. The highest wind I could find in gusts is 16 knots and that is at an offshore buoy.

From Jacksonville NWS office earlier this morning:
AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE NE FL COAST AND INTO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.

From Melbourne just minutes ago:
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023

IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD YESTERDAY, DEEP
S/SE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
IN FACT, THAT FEATURE HAS ACTUALLY CLOSED OFF INTO A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE.

[tolakram]

[Hurricane2022]

https://imgur.com/Ml7VotE

So cute storm!!

[wxman57]

Just a weak swirl moving inland into SE Georgia now. Winds 10-15 kts.

[LarryWx]

https://imgur.com/Ml7VotE

So cute storm!!

If they're going to be close to me, I want them cute and weak! It is a very tropical looking sky here with lots of beautiful towering clouds along with stratiform clouds, occasional showers (no thunder), and high humidity. Without looking at a map, one would know that there's something unusual today. It is acting like a TC is nearby but with hardly any wind. Kind of cool to experience this without the danger that I don't want any part of.

[tolakram]

Still going.



GFS says it will go back over water tonight.

[Teban54]

Some model runs do develop this, most notably 0z Euro:

Even runs with no development seem to show the vorticity competing with 96L and thus limiting the latter's development.