Disturbance over Bahamas/Cuba

[Ivanhater]

Starting to see a little more model enthusiasm for this disturbance crossing into the Gulf. Nothing crazy but I suspect a lemon soon for this one.

This may just be the appetizer as the models show a few systems getting into the Gulf over the next couple of weeks



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[BobHarlem]

Bahamas radar links:

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?821

Last link is a very long radar loop.

[boca]

What I’m concerned about is the water temps around Florida which are in the 90s which is unheard of here.That tropical wave could blow up right off our coastline and cause havoc and not being in the forecast.

[jasons2k]

With water temps this hot and us approaching September, I’d definitely keep tabs on any waves moving into the Bahamas/W Carib/GOM. Something to watch.

[Jr0d]

The convection has waned again this afternoon.

However this might find less shear in the next day or two as it approaches the bathtub waters off the Florida Keys.

Cuban Radares:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[LarryWx]

What I’m concerned about is the water temps around Florida which are in the 90s which is unheard of here.That tropical wave could blow up right off our coastline and cause havoc and not being in the forecast.

Key West buoy SST mean has been in a near record lower 90s on most days since early July. That is a good representation of the Keys mean SST in non-shallow locations and is scary to think about.

[Nimbus]

The "center" of the low level circulation is headed through the Florida straits but the dry air to its west means it would need about zero shear to get any thunderstorms going.

[BobHarlem]

strongest "hint" from this system on the Euro on Monday.



Canadian:



GFS:

[Jr0d]

What I’m concerned about is the water temps around Florida which are in the 90s which is unheard of here.That tropical wave could blow up right off our coastline and cause havoc and not being in the forecast.

Key West buoy SST mean has been in a near record lower 90s on most days since early July. That is a good representation of the Keys mean SST in non-shallow locations and is scary to think about.

The Satan shoal buoy has had water temps over 90...thats is deep open water. The potential latent heat in this area is off the scale.

I would be a blessing if this spins up over the Keys (yet stays weak of course) as it would help cool the water.

Edit to add Satan Shoal buoy link. Currently the water is 91.4°

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42095

[Nimbus]

What I’m concerned about is the water temps around Florida which are in the 90s which is unheard of here.That tropical wave could blow up right off our coastline and cause havoc and not being in the forecast.

Key West buoy SST mean has been in a near record lower 90s on most days since early July. That is a good representation of the Keys mean SST in non-shallow locations and is scary to think about.

The Satan shoal buoy has had water temps over 90...thats is deep open water. The potential latent heat in this area is off the scale.



I would be a blessing if this spins up over the Keys (yet stays weak of course) as it would help cool the water.

Edit to add Satan Shoal buoy link. Currently the water is 91.4°

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42095

This will be traveling around the western periphery of an upper level high so shear may be reduced since its moving in the same direction as the moist air mass to its east. Surface pressure readings at Key west will likely tell the story and trigger the models. The swing north at end of track is a little iffy right now.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like 850mb and 700mb vorticity is beginning to increase with this system.

[Jr0d]

This area never had a chance, unfortunately it looks like it will not give the Florida Keys some much needed rain and relief from the heat as has dried up this morning. CAPE values are also much lower than earlier in the week. While we will likely see some rain tonight again in the Keys, I was really hoping to get one rainy day from this system.

Despite some model suggestions of a vort forming near the Florida Straits today, it looks like if one forms now, it will be south of Cuba.

No lemon this weekend.

[Ianswfl]

This area never had a chance, unfortunately it looks like it will not give the Florida Keys some much needed rain and relief from the heat as has dried up this morning. CAPE values are also much lower than earlier in the week. While we will likely see some rain tonight again in the Keys, I was really hoping to get one rainy day from this system.

Despite some model suggestions of a vort forming near the Florida Straits today, it looks like if one forms now, it will be south of Cuba.

No lemon this weekend.

At least for us weather weenies in swfl it helps keep the waters 90 degrees for the big boys in late aug and sept.

[Nimbus]

The wave axis hasn't passed over Key West yet but there are outflow boundaries pushing away from the apex to the north. Waves usually close off near the apex. Just enough persistent shear to blow the tops off and keep it an open wave.

Although its unlikely to develop now because there probably is no pressure gradient its interesting to read the buoy reports and speculate. Background surface pressures are 30.00 and during the wave passage probably won't dip below 29.90 if there is any surface low there at all. The convection could have been all lift from the shear but WXman57 told us all that yesterday.

[Jr0d]

... Background surface pressures are 30.00 and during the wave passage probably won't dip below 29.90 if there is any surface low there at all. The convection could have been all lift from the shear but WXman57 told us all that yesterday.

The pressure is down to 29.91 at Sombrero Lighthouse off Marathon and 29.95 im Key West and dropping slightly.

I am expecting some storms later tonight in Key West and the NWS raised the PoP to 50% for Sunday. We had a very short lived shower this evening and some stronger short lived t-storms this morning.

At bit disappointing as I was hoping a low would close off and give us a full rain day to help cool the air and especially the water. Maybe Sunday will be surprise us and we get that rain day

Weather ballon data continues to show a slot of dry air and the mid levels with a slight inversion around 600mb, yesterday also had an bigger inversion a bit lower. Going to be interesting what the data will say from the balloon being launched right now.

Water temp in Key West is currently 92.3° so we need the relief.

[Nimbus]

... Background surface pressures are 30.00 and during the wave passage probably won't dip below 29.90 if there is any surface low there at all. The convection could have been all lift from the shear but WXman57 told us all that yesterday.

The pressure is down to 29.91 at Sombrero Lighthouse off Marathon and 29.95 im Key West and dropping slightly.

I am expecting some storms later tonight in Key West and the NWS raised the PoP to 50% for Sunday. We had a very short lived shower this evening and some stronger short lived t-storms this morning.

At bit disappointing as I was hoping a low would close off and give us a full rain day to help cool the air and especially the water. Maybe Sunday will be surprise us and we get that rain day

Weather ballon data continues to show a slot of dry air and the mid levels with a slight inversion around 600mb, yesterday also had an bigger inversion a bit lower. Going to be interesting what the data will say from the balloon being launched right now.

Water temp in Key West is currently 92.3° so we need the relief.

Surface low pressure extends east over near Andros island 29.94 but Andros going up back over 30 tonight.
29.91 already?

You get over 10 mb's of surface pressure gradient with some strong thunderstorms and we might get a lemon.
My enthusiasm for thunderstorms is tempered by the knowledge of reduced shear in the future all the way up to the gulf coast near the LA/TX border.
Just waiting for that Key West pressure bottom tomorrow without much in the way of expectations ATM.

[Jr0d]

Sombrero is up to 29.94 now. A thunderstorm just passed so that may have helped lower the pressure an hour ago.

Definitely telltale signs of strong storms likely later. I did notice some of the low level clouds rolling like a wave this evening, this is often an indicator of strong storms in the near future.