Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so on the tail
end of an elongated trough of low pressure, currently located more
than 500 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the weekend into
early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10-15
mph across the Lesser Antilles into the northeastern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Teban54]

Models have really started to favor this one over 99L. Greater potential for land threats, too.

[IsabelaWeather]

Models have really started to favor this one over 99L. Greater potential for land threats, too.

Yup, this one is intriguing. Doesnt loook like much atm though

[Blown Away]

Area @11N/47W.

[BobHarlem]

I thought the canadian was back into the ole' CMC "Constantly Making Cyclones" mode last week, now I'm not so sure.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692297559786537389



 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1692311883938754821



 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1692316708210352607

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692297559786537389?t=FtKlCRq-xrDqVgBVM8LJxA&s=19
https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1692311883938754821?t=QgQ1T7dK6-h3vJ8rkO4XwA&s=19
https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1692316708210352607?t=mN2ZZUBtMbjaovcYIoN0sQ&s=19

This. Main concern would be the flash flooding and with the mountains, it acelerates mudslides in PR and RD.

[SFLcane]

Likely waiting for more concentrated convection before tagging this disturbance.

[BobHarlem]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/DCzWNgO.png

Those SW of Haiti…?

[BobHarlem]

Last frame of 18z euro

[cycloneye]

18z Euro until 90 hours has a 1004 storm.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a lot of shear to me. The 18Z Euro is 3MB weaker than the 12Z:



18Z GFS:

[Ianswfl]

https://i.imgur.com/DCzWNgO.png

Those SW of Haiti…?

Gotta see what 00z 360 hr ensembles are. Almost reminds you of a Matthew like track possible.

[Blown Away]

18z ECENS…

[AutoPenalti]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

[Ianswfl]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

[AutoPenalti]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

That 18z path will likely go through the toughest terrain in the Caribbean.

[Ianswfl]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

That 18z path will likely go through the toughest terrain in the Caribbean.

GFS running. So far it's way south with it.

[Blown Away]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

00z Euro… Shift W, does loop in SE Bahamas then finishes moving NW… Upper conditions seem good in SE Bahamas for strengthening…