Will 2023 continue the 8-year streak of 135 kt hurricanes?

[Teban54]

Since 2015, the Atlantic has gone on an impressive 8-year streak with at least one 135+ kt storm per year, as per current official records:

• 2015: Joaquin
• 2016: Matthew*
• 2017: Irma, Jose, Maria
• 2018: Michael
• 2019: Dorian, Lorenzo
• 2020: Iota
• 2021: Sam
• 2022: Ian

* Matthew may be downgraded to lower than 135 kt or even 130 kt in the future, due to SFMR over-estimating high-end hurricanes.

There were even more 130 kt hurricanes over these years: Florence, Laura, Eta and Ida, all of which were very destructive but fell just short.

Do you think 2023 will keep up with the trend? There's a small chance that Idalia may be the next 135 kt storm, but from what we know right now, realistically it will have to be another storm later in the season.


Mods, can you make this a poll?

[IcyTundra]

No but I think we will get another major hurricane impact to a landmass after Idalia.

[dexterlabio]

Idalia certainly has a shot to MH but I think Franklin has access to better UL environment for it to reach borderline Cat4/5.

[Teban54]

Lee says yes.

This means the Atlantic is now in a 9-year streak of at least one 135-kt storm per year, and 6 of the last 8 years had a Cat 5 as per current records.

Some may argue that Iota and Sam were Cat 5s while Matthew was not, in which case it would have become a 7-year streak of Cat 5s.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah.