Will Hurricane Idalia be downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane?

[WalterWhite]

Currently, Hurricane Idalia is listed as a Category IV hurricane at its peak by the NHC. However, recon data seems to indicate that Hurricane Idalia might have actually been a Category III hurricane at its peak. At its peak, recon found 123 kt flight winds, which, when multiplied by the standard 90% factor, gives 110.7 kt. This seems to suggest that Hurricane Idalia was 110 kt at its peak, which would put it in the Category III range. Will the NHC downgrade Hurricane Idalia to a Category III hurricane in its tropical cyclone report?

Moderators, could you turn this into a poll?

[ElectricStorm]

I think it should be, recon never really supported 115kts other than a questionable SFMR. I'd go 110kts

Also I think landfall intensity should be lowered. I can see 100kts but even that might be generous

[Sciencerocks]

Considering recon only flies through small portions of the storm and the peak intensity was very short lived I'd lean liberally. So no...There were also more then one smrf as we also had a 114knots right after the 116knt flight level suggesting this area of winds covered a respectable area of the cyclone. Flight level of 123 knts suggest 110knts too but again consider the above.

I'd almost always lean liberally considering it is impossible to grant the level of coverage needed to sample the maximum winds of a cyclone. So I'd say it probably was by the head of its nose a cat4 and that will be a judgement call by the nhc in post season.

[Ubuntwo]

With the data available to us, no. 123kt was the highest FL reading but consider Idalia was an extremely compact storm with a tight RMW. The peak was short-lived and Idalia started weakening just as quickly as it intensified. Mean undersampling from a repeated & rotated alpha pattern (as was used in Idalia) is ~7% - with the above it was likely higher.

116kt and 114kt SFMR were observed on the W side of the storm. This was only sampled once and maintained intense reflectivity even as the eyewall collapsed. We also have two 108kt SFMR from later in the flight, in an apparently weaker part of the eyewall. If this storm was only 110kt at peak I believe landfall should be 95kt (though I don't see NHC bringing it that far down). The aircraft radar data will make or break cat 4 Idalia at the end of the day.

[ljmac75]

If a downgrade does occur, what is everyone's predictions on the rest of the path from landfall to its re-emergence over the Atlantic? I am personally fine with the 115 kt peak and do not know enough about weakening rates over land to give much of an assessment but clearly this is not the case for everyone.