Biggest underperformers and overperformers

[Tekken_Guy]

What hurricanes were the biggest underperformers of expectations? The biggest overperformers?

[Hurricane2022]

Pamela was the biggest underperformer i've seen... expected to be Cat 4/5, but only became a sheared Cat 1
And one of the biggest overperformers was obviously Jova, initially expected to be a low-end C3/C4 and later intensified into a very rare C5 in the EPAC

[DioBrando]

Pamela was the biggest underperformer i've seen... expected to be Cat 4/5, but only became a sheared Cat 1
And one of the biggest overperformers was obviously Jova, initially expected to be a low-end C3/C4 and later intensified into a very rare C5 in the EPAC

We had a jovaperformer and Lee, an underperformer.

[WalterWhite]

Rene was probably the biggest underperformer that I can recall.

[dexterlabio]

Lee is both an overperformer and underperformer. RI'd to Cat5 but when it was poised to intensify even more and be in the ranks of Irma and Dorian, it got blasted off by shear.

[WalterWhite]

Lee is 100% an underperformer---no doubt about it. HAFS models expected it intensify to 170-180 knots, yet it only reached a measly 145 knots.

[Category5Kaiju]

We're all making fun of Lee, but I know there was a storm that underperformed and flopped even worse:

Delta.

[WalterWhite]

We're all making fun of Lee, but I know there was a storm that underperformed and flopped even worse:

Delta.

How do you NOT get a Category V storm in a zero-shear environment in the extremely warm Caribbean?

[NotSparta]

We're all making fun of Lee, but I know there was a storm that underperformed and flopped even worse:

Delta.

How do you NOT get a Category V storm in a zero-shear environment in the extremely warm Caribbean?

There was a lot of mid-level easterly shear that wasn't predicted well that stopped its RI run

[Hurricane2022]

We're all making fun of Lee, but I know there was a storm that underperformed and flopped even worse:

Delta.

How do you NOT get a Category V storm in a zero-shear environment in the extremely warm Caribbean?

There was a lot of mid-level easterly shear that wasn't predicted well that stopped its RI run

The same happened with Hurricane Lee, except it was already a C5

[ElectricStorm]

I guess I'll never understand how Lee is an underperformer. I mean it reached Cat 5 in an area where not many storms are able to do that. Sure, the shear knocked it down way more than anyone expected but that doesn't make it an underperformance imo.

I mean it was only 10kts less than Irma which isn't much. And yeah a couple HAFS runs went ballistic but getting a 170kt storm in the Atlantic has literally never happened (at least since records have been recorded). You can't call a Cat 5 an underperformance just because it didn't end up with the highest Atlantic windspeed on record...

[Category5Kaiju]

I guess I'll never understand how Lee is an underperformer. I mean it reached Cat 5 in an area where not many storms are able to do that. Sure, the shear knocked it down way more than anyone expected but that doesn't make it an underperformance imo.

I mean it was only 10kts less than Irma which isn't much. And yeah a couple HAFS runs went ballistic but getting a 170kt storm in the Atlantic has literally never happened (at least since records have been recorded). You can't call a Cat 5 an underperformance just because it didn't end up with the highest Atlantic windspeed on record...

Sure, Lee underperformed if you were looking at some of the crazy hurricane model runs that got it near Irma/Dorian level or beyond. But otherwise, a 165 mph/926 mbar, solid Category 5 hurricane in the MDR during what should be a moderate El Nino year? That's pretty substantial in my honest opinion.

The way I see things, having so many ensembles calling for a powerhouse Category 5 was more of an indication that they were sniffing out ocean and atmosphere conditions that had a high chance of nurturing a Category 5 storm. In other words, they were more confident about a Category 5 system happening rather than solely calling for a record-breaking system that the Atlantic has never seen before.

[Teban54]

Irma underperformed because it never became the 890 mb Miami hit that models showed it to be.

No, on a serious note, if you don't think Irma underperformed because of that, the same probably applies to Lee.

[Iceresistance]

Can't go without saying Pamela

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have difficulty taking seriously any sentence that involves "Cat 5" and "underperformer" personally.

[Xyls]

As far as chronic underperformers go impact wise I would have to say Hurricane Isaac from 2012 consistently underperformed what it was expected to do. At one point there was a concern it was going to be a Category 2 or 3 into Tampa Bay, at another point it was going to be another Category 3 into New Orleans. And it barely managed to squeak out being a Category 1 before landfall. There was a lot of media coverage on it and it flopped, although was still relatively destructive for it's intensity.

Florence 2018 was also another underperformer and there we original expectations it was going to get maybe to Cat 5 or just under strength as it approached North Carolina and she ended up doing the exact opposite.

[cheezyWXguy]

Every time this thread comes up I feel like I need to add Earl 2004. East Caribbean ts expected to become a hurricane with potential to threaten the northern gulf coast as a major, so soon after Charley. Then it just degenerated.

[Hurricane2022]

Michael '18 and Idalia '23 were 2 very similar storms that were expected to become only strong tropical storms at landfall, but both overperformed and surprisingly quickly intensified into two powerful Cat. 5 and Cat. 4 hurricanes, respectively.

[galaxy401]

Lee is 100% an underperformer---no doubt about it. HAFS models expected it intensify to 170-180 knots, yet it only reached a measly 145 knots.

"Only" 145 kts. I feel you put your expectations way too high. You got a Cat 5 and you're still complaining.

[FireRat]

Lee is 100% an underperformer---no doubt about it. HAFS models expected it intensify to 170-180 knots, yet it only reached a measly 145 knots.

"Only" 145 kts. I feel you put your expectations way too high. You got a Cat 5 and you're still complaining.

Yeah a feat not even 2020 officially could pull off! But yeah all is relative I guess, with many expecting a Haiyan out of this thing like the models showed once Lee really took off. Definitely not an underperformer, more like performed as expected originally.