Discussion About Changing the Start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May (15th)

[Ianswfl]

There seems to be support to start it May 15th, but I personally would extend it to Dec 15th as well. If we continue to see the pattern of SST we're seeing now it's got to be considered.

If we don't get major cool downs this year and there is a pocket of favorability I can see a late Nov or even early Dec storm like Kate 1985 which was a warm year. I do think within the next ten years we will get another late Nov Kate in the Gulf or even into early Dec.

I remember a couple years ago the models all developed a sub tropical storm in the Gulf in Jan, but the surface low ended up developing just over land. Euro was all over it I recall.

2012 in Feb nearly had a TS form not far from the Keys around the time of the Super Bowl but it got sheared out.

But with warmer SST there is no reason to think you could have a Kate in early Dec, just two weeks later than 1985.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/a ... 1202052349

Lets not forget the 2021 Dec storm here in SWFL. Joe Bastardi has made the argument this Gulf low should have been named. He said warm core, and the waters were plenty warm for a sub tropical storm. Looking at it the thing did look tropicalish. Waters were above normal I remember.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a ... d2f154cd04

[Astromanía]

, there is no reason to expand the season. The tropical cyclone season means the time of the year where tropical cyclones tend to form but they can develop any time of the year, May and December have more activity than the others off season months but they are still far from the activity of the official season. What would change if you expand the season? A May and December storm if happens will be not more than a weak td or ts developing far from land in most cases

[ElectricStorm]

Quick google search has the most recent May hurricane as Alma in 1970, and the most recent December storm was in 2013, with the most recent December hurricane being Epsilon in 2005 (which formed in Nov, last one to form in Dec appears to be Lili in 1984). In fact since 2013, we've had more January storms (2, including a hurricane) than December storms. Sure we had quite the streak of years with a May storm there for a while but I don't really think that's enough to expand "hurricane" season to include May and December when an actual hurricane in those months is very rare. Starting the TWO's on May 15 instead of June 1 makes sense though.

Just my opinion though

[Teban54]

A May and December storm if happens will be not more than a weak td or ts

As we've seen from Daniel in the Mediterranean, a TS can be very damaging.

Especially if the public is not prepared for it. And while most of the North Atlantic basin is thankfully better prepared for tropical threats than the likes of Libya and Greece, being off-season certainly hurts the level of public awareness and alertness.

developing far from land in most cases

I disagree, plenty of off-season storms affected land. 6 out of 10 off-season storms since 2015 (start of the 6-year pre-season streak) affected land: Ana 2015, Bonnie 2016, Alberto 2018, Arthur 2020, Bertha 2020, One 2023.

[Ianswfl]

A May and December storm if happens will be not more than a weak td or ts

As we've seen from Daniel in the Mediterranean, a TS can be very damaging.

Especially if the public is not prepared for it. And while most of the North Atlantic basin is thankfully better prepared for tropical threats than the likes of Libya and Greece, being off-season certainly hurts the level of public awareness and alertness.

developing far from land in most cases

I disagree, plenty of off-season storms affected land. 6 out of 10 off-season storms since 2015 (start of the 6-year pre-season streak) affected land: Ana 2015, Bonnie 2016, Alberto 2018, Arthur 2020, Bertha 2020, One 2023.

Don't forget 1952 as well! I'd love to see what that thing looked like on sat and how it developed in feb. Probably looked similar to tropical storm Mitch in 1998 when it chugged along and hit swfl.

I think storms like Nicole or Kate will become more common.

[CFLHurricane]

Not to be contrarian, but the peak of the season hasn’t really changed much. Things don’t really kick off until the second half of August and sharply taper once November hits. Expanding the season would only serve to numb an already apathetic public.

[AutoPenalti]

If you use a binomial distribution between the amount of Hurricanes that form over a period of time, it's still not necessary to expand it.

[psyclone]

How about no? the season is plenty long and the vast majority of storms fall within the season. If anything...it is helpful to think of the Atlantic season in a thinner context...like August through October. June,July and November are frequently throw away months as it is.

[Ianswfl]

How about no? the season is plenty long and the vast majority of storms fall within the season. If anything...it is helpful to think of the Atlantic season in a thinner context...like August through October. June,July and November are frequently throw away months as it is.

But if water temps are warm enough in the gulf there is no reason we can't get more activity with stalled fronts and such.

[wxman57]

First hurricane of the season has actually trended later into August. We're seeing earlier storms named because of the naming of subtropical storms and better detection combined with changing naming criteria. No reason to make adjustments. NHC already starts the outlook on May 15th. If there's a storm before then, then advisories will still be issued.

[Jonny]

I think it would make sense for "hurricane season" to start earlier, but still end on 11/30.