Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[BobHarlem]

wow! the 18z gfs run is even more crazy than the 12z run ...hopefully it won't verify

18z GFS goes through PR and Hispaniola turning north through the Bahamas until getting trapped and forced west to the Tidewater area of VA.

Stalls out over there and the OBX for 4 days while winding down. 18z needs a song written about it.

[ThunderForce]

Yikes, is it normal for the GFS to make insanely large modelcanes this far out? Much like the 00z run earlier, it gets to a size that I've never seen in the Atlantic basin before that makes it look more like a Pacific typhoon. This would cause hurricane force wind damage in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and Washington D.C. and that's not even getting into the storm surge. Absolutely insane.

[IcyTundra]

Yikes, is it normal for the GFS to make insanely large modelcanes this far out? Much like the 00z run earlier, it gets to a size that I've never seen in the Atlantic basin before that makes it look more like a Pacific typhoon. This would cause hurricane force wind damage in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and Washington D.C. and that's not even getting into the storm surge. Absolutely insane.

Yes it's pretty common and it never gets as big as the GFS shows in fantasy range.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET dropped this from becoming a TC.

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (0Z) is too weak for this to be classified a TC.

[mantis83]

0z gfs starting to trend towards the euro, looks to skirt the northern islands before turning north to just east of bermuda. hopefully the north trends continue

[ThunderForce]

0z gfs starting to trend towards the euro, looks to skirt the northern islands before turning north to just east of bermuda.hopefully the north trends continue

Uh, no offense but I'm not sure if I'd call that skirting the islands. It literally goes through the northern Lesser Antilles as a hurricane, and the hurricane/tropical storm force winds appear to reach Puerto Rico before turning.

[IsabelaWeather]

0z gfs starting to trend towards the euro, looks to skirt the northern islands before turning north to just east of bermuda. hopefully the north trends continue

Euro doesnt really develop this wave at all.

The GFS the last few runs have been about the same, the 0z is very close to the 18z but a little to the right and a little slower.

I really find this users' posts highly irritating on every single run chanting the same stuff. Can we just track the storm without trying to be "noble" about where it might go? I mean, we can talk about impacts if it looks likely other wise its getting extremely annoying - and I know I am not alone.

The storm is going to go where it goes, I just want to track the meteorology of it all.

[Ianswfl]

Gfs ensembles big shift west compared to 18z. One member trying a Michael track except a cat3 this time.

[mantis83]

0z euro remains consistent going well north and east of the islands, quite a bit stronger than before tho...

[cycloneye]

Very convective this morning,

[cycloneye]

For the record, this is the 2 AM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Nimbus]

wow! the 18z gfs run is even more crazy than the 12z run ...hopefully it won't verify

18z GFS goes through PR and Hispaniola turning north through the Bahamas until getting trapped and forced west to the Tidewater area of VA.

Stalls out over there and the OBX for 4 days while winding down. 18z needs a song written about it.

GFS develops the "aviation" model.

[abajan]

Very convective this morning,

https://i.imgur.com/jLGNeeg.gif

Circulation is quite evident in visible imagery too:

[Blown Away]

free photo hosting
06z GEFS... Still concentrated near the NE Caribbean...

[abajan]

8AM:

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Cachondo23]

8AM:

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

https://images2.imgbox.com/ba/2e/XlMNi20d_o.png

They took out the merger with the other disturbance in this TWO?

[abajan]

8AM:

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

https://images2.imgbox.com/ba/2e/XlMNi20d_o.png

They took out the merger with the other disturbance in this TWO?

I'm wondering if it's just an oversight.

[cycloneye]

They took out the merger with the other disturbance in this TWO?

I'm wondering if it's just an oversight.

What do you mean by oversight?

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Y0m2dr3x/62df5aa2-534b-4b47-95d8-ecd8a966caec.gif [/url]free photo hosting
06z GEFS... Still concentrated near the NE Caribbean...