Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa by the middle part of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it continues moving westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

It would be very cool to see another major hurricane...

[mantis83]

It would be very cool to see another major hurricane...

agreed! it's all about that ACE....

[Category5Kaiju]

This has definitely been one of the more impressive MDR seasons we've had in recent times.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has it forming more west and this is the result, but is long range.

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS weaker than previous runs. Gets to 1001mb before dissipating north of the islands

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter while the system moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Wampadawg]

Is this the late wave that slips into the Gulf? October in the Gulf is odd? Isn’t it

[Hurricaneman]

Is this the late wave that slips into the Gulf? October in the Gulf is odd? Isn’t it

Yes, part of the wave forms and moves north of the islands while the main wave continues west and forms in the western Caribbean, not too unusual in October but is something to watch for the next 7 to 10 days in the models

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 a.m. TWO:

1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1703111123493396909

[cycloneye]

12z Euro more weak and west. Has more ridging.

[aspen]

Today’s 12z runs are less enthusiastic with this system. The GFS drops it completely, but then again, it’s been bad this year so maybe it’ll pick it up again in a few days.

[Wampadawg]

Nothing Scientific here at all ,so maybe not proper to post here just this weird feeling that this wave could be trouble for us in the Houston area perhaps its the euphoria from finally getting rain.We will see.

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and Euro develop this wave, but they recurve before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, however, if this occur, more ACE will be pumped for the North Atlantic and will get close to the hyperactive zone.

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8 a.m. TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Gradual development of the wave will be possible
thereafter and a tropical depression could form late this week or
next weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[mantis83]

Both GFS and Euro develop this wave, but they recurve before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, however, if this occur, more ACE will be pumped for the North Atlantic and will get close to the hyperactive zone.

https://i.imgur.com/LM2ruOE.gif

https://i.imgur.com/roePiHs.gif

indeed! what a season for the MDR in the face of a strong el nino!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1703375169224389073