Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

[zzzh]

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a surface trough of low pressure and
an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves
slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds
are forecast to become too strong for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Nimbus]

Thought this was all upper low until the convection near the center started blooming.
Made me look.

[tolakram]

[psyclone]

A plume of moisture is lifting northward over the Florida peninsula...almost like a warm front. Our brief spell of low dewpoints is over as a wet week looks to be on tap.

[ChrisH-UK]

I was looking at it earlier, the models show it heading toward Mexico. There's a broad rotation with convection however just looking at it now it doesn't look as good as it was earlier. Hers are the 2 loops that I made earlier at 1600 utc and 2200 utc.

1600 UTC



2200 UTC

[WalterWhite]

I really question why the NHC ever monitored this disturbance. This had no model support for development.

[toad strangler]

I really question why the NHC ever monitored this disturbance. This had no model support for development.

Probably because the NHC knows models are not crystal balls but are merely tools in the chest at their disposal.

[fwbbreeze]

Winds along the coast near Destin/Fort Walton have really picked up this evening. Eglin , AFB radar definitely shows some rotation just out in the Gulf. Could just be frontal related. Both the 12z Euro and GFS show a little vorticity up this way but it doesn't amount to much.