Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 92L)

[AnnularCane]

Has anyone noticed there's a lemon out there? Because, well, I just now found out and I was wondering if anyone said anything yet but I guess not...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles north of the Virgin
Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$

[Cachondo23]

Cabo Verde season does not want to stop…

[WalterWhite]

This is not the first time we have had a Cape Verde storm in October.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa this weekend. Thereafter, some slow development of this
system is possible as it moves westward to west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[kevin]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa in the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of the
system. A tropical depression could form by the early to middle part
of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa later today and tonight. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of the
system, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave beginning to move off the west coast of
Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the
early to middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of
Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

[cycloneye]

Looks like it will be a invest soon.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like it will be a invest soon.

https://i.imgur.com/6OHeHDX.gif

Models trended upward quite a bit at 18z, most now make it a strong TS/low end C1. I think this can briefly reach C1, and for good reason since this is looking fairly healthy for an October MDR wave.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located just off the west coast of
Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Nimbus]

Still at 70% and its a low latitude entry.
Worth checking the models I guess to see how well they do.

[abajan]

This is now Invest 92L (AL92)

Please use that thread for any further discussions on this wave.