Post-season upgrades?

[MarioProtVI]

Which storms do you think will get upped in post-season? I think the most likely candidates are Bret (recon probably missed the peak given the data we saw), Jose (undersampled and a SAR pass indicated it may have been near or at hurricane intensity) and Ophelia (despite NHC possibly referring it as transient I believe a gust to 83-84 mph was recorded which can support 75 mph surface).

[Sciencerocks]

I think they'll do the right thing one day to the january system and declare it a hurricane with 70 knot winds.

[WalterWhite]

I think they'll do the right thing one day to the january system and declare it a hurricane with 70 knot winds.

They already wrote the report for Subtropical Storm 01L.

[cycloneye]

All the post season reports are and will be posted at the 2023 TCR's.

[ElectricStorm]

My opinions on post-season changes so far:

Atlantic:
STS 1: Pretty good chance it was fully tropical and probably a hurricane, but since they already released the TCR I doubt they'll change it.
Bret: Very close call could go either way, I don't think they'll upgrade it though.
Don: I think this was a little stronger than 65kts. I'd probably go with 75kts
Franklin: I'd probably go with 135kts since it was at 130 when recon left and it was still deepening. It's a shame recon missed it's peak.
Idalia: I would lower it slightly to 110kts at peak, and 95-100kts at landfall. The SFMR used to upgrade to 115 seemed questionable but maybe the NHC saw something we didn't. This is one of the TCRs I'm interested in the most.
Jose: Borderline Cat 1 but I'd a least raise it to 60kts. Likely underestimated a bit similar to Don.
Ophelia: Probably the best chance at an upgrade to hurricane status, 65kts seems good.


EPAC:
Adrian: There was a chance it briefly reached 100kts but I don't really see them upgrading it. I would probably at least raise it slightly to 95kts
Dora: Was probably underestimated a bit, I'd probably go 135kts. Borderline Cat 5 IMO
Jova: Was also probably slightly underestimated. I'd probably go with 150kts although it could have been closer to 155.

WPAC:
Would like to see Saola upgraded to a Cat 5. Seemed like a pretty clear cut T7.0 to me.

[Hurricane2022]

My opinions on post-season changes so far:

Atlantic:
STS 1: Pretty good chance it was fully tropical and probably a hurricane, but since they already released the TCR I doubt they'll change it.
Bret: Very close call could go either way, I don't think they'll upgrade it though.
Don: I think this was a little stronger than 65kts. I'd probably go with 75kts
Franklin: I'd probably go with 135kts since it was at 130 when recon left and it was still deepening. It's a shame recon missed it's peak.
Idalia: I would lower it slightly to 110kts at peak, and 95-100kts at landfall. The SFMR used to upgrade to 115 seemed questionable but maybe the NHC saw something we didn't. This is one of the TCRs I'm interested in the most.
Jose: Borderline Cat 1 but I'd a least raise it to 60kts. Likely underestimated a bit similar to Don.
Ophelia: Probably the best chance at an upgrade to hurricane status, 65kts seems good.
Sean: I'd go with a 30kt TD but I doubt they downgrade it.

EPAC:
Adrian: There was a chance it briefly reached 100kts but I don't really see them upgrading it. I would probably at least raise it slightly to 95kts
Dora: Was probably underestimated a bit, I'd probably go 135kts. Borderline Cat 5 IMO
Jova: Was also probably slightly underestimated. I'd probably go with 150kts although it could have been closer to 155.

WPAC:
Would like to see Saola upgraded to a Cat 5. Seemed like a pretty clear cut T7.0 to me.

All of these bets seem good to me, except that I think Jose should be upgraded to a hurricane, as a SAR pass recorded winds of 70-75 kts, so I would be glad if the NHC made that upgrade later on Jose's TCR .

[ElectricStorm]

New ASCAT pass for Sean has better support for a TS than it did previously so I removed it from my list

[jconsor]

Very interesting discussion guys! Thanks Electricstorm, Hurricane2022 and others.

Regarding SAR (synthetic aperture radar) wind estimates, the technology is relatively new and I have not yet seen it referenced as a basis for best-track intensity for any *Atlantic* tropical cyclone yet. NHC mentioned SAR images in the reports for Nicole 2022 and Grace 2021, but more in the context of storm structure and size. The NHC did reference it for a few recent E. Pacific systems (Darby 2023 and Felicia 2021). You can see all references to SAR in NHC reports by doing this Google search:
site:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ synthetic radar

A recent paper on SAR notes that there *should* be a positive bias for SAR estimates of max winds vs. best track, since SAR represents instantaneous winds and best track 1-min average winds
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp ... er=9380372

(This positive bias of SAR should be ~10% per WMO guidelines: http://www.systemsengineeringaustralia. ... g_2010.pdf - see page 12)

However, another paper shows that for a few recent TCs in the Western Pacific and Atlantic, SAR estimates were actually 10-20% lower than best track. For others (Sam 2021 and Surigae 2020), SAR estimates were generally close to the best track.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0053.1.xml

My opinions on post-season changes so far:

Atlantic:
STS 1: Pretty good chance it was fully tropical and probably a hurricane, but since they already released the TCR I doubt they'll change it.
Bret: Very close call could go either way, I don't think they'll upgrade it though.
Don: I think this was a little stronger than 65kts. I'd probably go with 75kts
Franklin: I'd probably go with 135kts since it was at 130 when recon left and it was still deepening. It's a shame recon missed it's peak.
Idalia: I would lower it slightly to 110kts at peak, and 95-100kts at landfall. The SFMR used to upgrade to 115 seemed questionable but maybe the NHC saw something we didn't. This is one of the TCRs I'm interested in the most.
Jose: Borderline Cat 1 but I'd a least raise it to 60kts. Likely underestimated a bit similar to Don.
Ophelia: Probably the best chance at an upgrade to hurricane status, 65kts seems good.
Sean: I'd go with a 30kt TD but I doubt they downgrade it.

EPAC:
Adrian: There was a chance it briefly reached 100kts but I don't really see them upgrading it. I would probably at least raise it slightly to 95kts
Dora: Was probably underestimated a bit, I'd probably go 135kts. Borderline Cat 5 IMO
Jova: Was also probably slightly underestimated. I'd probably go with 150kts although it could have been closer to 155.

WPAC:
Would like to see Saola upgraded to a Cat 5. Seemed like a pretty clear cut T7.0 to me.

All of these bets seem good to me, except that I think Jose should be upgraded to a hurricane, as a SAR pass recorded winds of 70-75 kts, so I would be glad if the NHC made that upgrade later on Jose's TCR .

[Teban54]

I think we can add the question of whether Tammy will be upgraded to a major on this list.

[kevin]

Not sure if they'll do it since NHC rarely increases intensity by 10 kt, but I think a 100 kt peak for Tammy would be reasonable.